Computer Model Predicts Fewer Than 200 Deaths from Fukushima Radiation

Immediate and future radiation from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster may result in hundreds of deaths and emerging cancer cases, according to a yearlong modeling project undertaken by researchers at Stanford University.

Started within a week of the Fukushima meltdown, the project is the most detailed model yet of the emission, transport and deposition of radioactive material from the site, accounting for complex interactions between atmospheric conditions and the microphysics of radioactive particles.

Combining the projected spread of radioactive material with a standard radiation health-effects model, co-authors John Hoeve, a recent Stanford Ph.D. graduate, and civil engineering professor Mark Jacobson calculated that between 15 and 1,300 premature deaths would occur as a result of the accident.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=computer-model-predicts-fewer-than-200-deaths-fukushima-radiation&WT.mc_id=SA_CAT_ENGYSUS_20120719