Could New Orleans swing the Louisiana treasurer's race?

here's been a lot of political chatter about New Orleans' ability to tip the state treasurer's election this Saturday (Nov. 18) in favor of Democratic candidate Derrick Edwards, but Louisiana election experts say there's very little chance of that happening, regardless of what might have been asserted recently.

"[New Orleans], by itself, is not going to help a Democrat win," said Michael Henderson, director of the Public Policy Research Lab at LSU. "There's just not enough votes in New Orleans to make up the gap."

Democrats have had a tough time winning any statewide election in Louisiana over the past several years. Gov. John Bel Edwards, who won his race in 2015, is the only Democrat in a statewide elected office. But there's been a pervasive theory that a Democrat might have a better shot in this year's treasurer election because it falls on the same day as the New Orleans mayoral and city council runoffs.

The local elections in New Orleans should drive up voter turnout in the Louisiana's most heavily Democrat precincts Saturday, while people in other parts of the state, who would vote for a Republican won't have much incentive to go to the polls. If voter turnout in New Orleans is high and voter turnout in the rest of the state is low, New Orleans area attorney Derrick Edwards should have a shot at besting Republican candidate and former state Rep. John Schroder from Covington. At least, that's the theory.


http://www.nola.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/new_orleans_treasurer_race.html