How long will the Russia probe go on?

Link to tweet

_ _ _ _ _ _ _

The whole enchilada, unrolled: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/932474004593696770?refreshed=refreshed

(THREAD) In this thread, a longtime criminal attorney analyzes one of the most pressing questions in American life today: how long will the Russia probe go on?

Read on for an answer, and please share this thread widely.

1/ The President and his Congressional and administration allies recently initiated a national campaign to convince America the Russia probe is nearly done.

It's not.

Ty Cobb, one of the President's attorneys, is the source of much of the misinformation.

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/361138-some-wh-aides-anxious-over-russia-probe-despite-reassurances-from

2/ As has now been widely reported, Cobb told Trump the Russia probe was nearly over to calm him. First he said the probe would be over by now; then, he switched his prediction to soon after Thanksgiving; then, he changed it to December; then, he changed it to "early next year."

3/ Cobb's assurances were intended for Trump, and for Trump's jittery allies. They're wishful thinking and aren't news.

However, in recent days Cobb has gotten an assist from disinterested observers: journalists misreading the course of the investigation. http://www.businessinsider.com/mueller-trump-russia-hope-hicks-obstruction-of-justice-2017-11

4/ There's an assumption—not among criminal investigators or criminal attorneys (two groups I've belonged to) but those without trial or investigative experience—that the probe ends the moment the only witness not yet interviewed by Bob Mueller is Trump himself.

This is wrong.

5/ To explain why it's wrong, let's start with some facts:

(a) Federal cases move more slowly in the investigative and trial phases than state cases do.

(b) Federal cases of any complexity take years.

(c) This investigation started in June 2016.

(d) It met unexpected delays.

6/ Let's add to those facts a few more:

(e) This is the most complex federal criminal investigation of our lifetimes, partly because its authorizing document is—in fact—stunningly broad in its scope and license.

(f) The case's lead investigator was fired by its target this May.

7/ It's true the FBI began looking at Trump-Russia ties a year before Comey's firing, but a) they had to be cautious—lest word of the probe leak and affect the election; b) they were distracted by a Trump-aided effort to reopen the Clinton case; c) key events hadn't happened yet;

8/ d) their main investigative lead came from a man with whom they weren't in regular contact (Chris Steele) and his sources were all either unknown or inaccessible (because overseas); e) the premise of the case—a historic, traitorous collusion—seemed far-fetched at first blush;

9/ f) the case was explosively political, and thus aroused little fervor among anyone worried about advancing their career in government; g) the GOP was actively working via media and D.C. circles to squelch any rumors about Trump (cf. Obama's effort to reach out to McConnell);

10/ h) the case had so many dimensions—at least 20 different investigative angles and 100+ key witnesses, many of whom were overseas—that focusing on any one slowed progress on any other, at least until substantial resources could be dedicated to the case (i.e., post-election);

11/ and i) because new inculpatory evidence was produced whenever Trump spoke, or every time a new Carter Page intercept was received (post-July 2016 FISA warrant on him), or every time Jared Kushner hatched a crazy scheme to back-channel Putin, new work was always being created.

12/ And in the midst of all this, the man who FBI investigators knew from Day One would be their primary target—and knew it because they'd begun by reading the "Steele Dossier," written by a man they'd worked with before and whose sources they trusted—fired the lead investigator.

13/ Here are a few of the investigative angles in the Russia probe:

(1) Hacking of DNC/Clinton (Guccifer, Stone, FancyBear et. al.)

(2) Illicit Sanctions Negotiations (Page, Sessions, Papadopoulos, Kislyak et. al.)

(3) Clandestine GOP Platform Changes (Gordon, Manafort et. al.)

14/

(4) Clandestine Foreign Agents in Government A (Flynn, Gulen, Turkish officials et. al.)

(5) Clandestine Foreign Agents in Government B (Manafort, Gates, Deripaska et. al.)

(6) Data Analytics Collusion and Social Media Propaganda (Kushner, Mercer, Cambridge Analytica et. al)

15/

(7) Obstruction of Justice A [Comey Firing] (Trump, Yates, Sessions, Miller, Comey, Lavrov, Kislyak, Hicks et. al.)

(8) Obstruction of Justice B [Trump Jr. Statement] (Trump, Trump Jr., Miller, Hicks et. al.)

(9) Making False Statements and/or Perjury A (Sessions)

16/

(10) Making False Statements and/or Perjury B (Flynn)

(11) Making False Statements and/or Perjury C (Kushner)

(12) Making False Statements and/or Perjury D (Page)

(13) Making False Statements and/or Perjury E (Papadopoulos)

17/

(14) Money Laundering (Manafort, Gates, et. al.)

(15) Espionage [Putin Backchannel] (Kushner, Flynn, Kislyak, et. al.)

(16) Clandestine Trump Tower Moscow Agreement [2013 to 2017] (Trump, Aras Agalarov, Emin Agalarov, Michael Cohen, Felix Sater, Kremlin officials et. al.)