what to think. Nothing would make me happier, short of Twitler being impeached, than for you to be right.

The total turnout should be 25% of all voters. A quarter of all voters are African-American. If Jones got a 75% turnout among black voters, we wouldn't need a single white vote to win.

African-American turnout.

The hillbillies and swamp-swimmers could probably get away with challenging as many as 10% of ballots cast in black precincts.

More than that, and they're looking at a national civil rights investigation into voter suppression.

African-Americans opposed to Moore's candidacy will have to turn out in huge numbers to overcome the inevitable suppression by white Alabamans.

70% is closer to the number it will take if vote is like other Senatorial elections there or 2016 Presidential election.

Then, again, not sure it’s right/fair to expect Blacks to bail stupid white majority out of that cess pool of a state anymore than any other group — young, elderly, etc.

the benefit of the doubt, I can't imagine how they could explain Moore's election to their 14 year-old daughters four years from now, whey they are 18.

i think we can evaluate this more easily from the standpoint of personality cults. which candidate is the race more "about"? where is the media focused, positively or negatively? by that measure, it's Moore by 10. could be more if the off-year effect further depresses Democratic turnout.

but hell, maybe i'm wrong. i would happily be wrong on this. please Alabama, prove me wrong.

and even the loses are over performances.

i'll start: Danica Roem over Bob Marshall for Virginia delegates

in a way, Bob shot himself in the foot by (1) authoring a bunch of legislation that targeted Roem (transgender), and (2) trying to run on it against one of his own victims. she was able to point to her own situation and how it was impeded by Marshall's assholery, which made her campaign much stronger and turned his into a nasty foil. discrimination laws never look as nifty when you can attach a name to the persecuted party.

if Moore were running against one of his teen victims or someone else he'd fucked over politically in the past, they'd probably have an edge.

any you'd particularly like to raise, where the R got the lion's share of coverage and the D still won? that would definitely support your angle, which i support in principle and hope holds true on Tuesday.

wheras mr. Marshall's self-shooting was all about his victims.

you get my k&r

and the creek don’t rise.

...so that prolly means NO voting system is secure. "It's not who votes that counts, but who counts the votes.".....

I think that raises the Dems' bar by about 10%, just guessing........

GOP SOS does mean some tomfoolery likely in the voting system.

I would only add that whatever plans the GOPee has to steal this elections - be it voter roll 'blackouts', tampering of voting machines by hackers, good ol' fashioned ballot box stuffing, or all of the above - that they fail and that moreover they become a dynamite embarrassment.

and don't want to admit they are voting for the pedophile

We saw it with Trump where a lot of women didn't want to admit they were supporting the grabber

But no matter who wins, Dems still win in a way because we can tie every Republican to the pervert who preys on 14 year old girls

The fact that the race is even close denotes Jones over performing by up to 20% already, my friend. Only because Moore is such an awful crucible of conscience for the knuckle dragging fundamentalists in Bama is there any hope for a democratic candidate.

Don’t get me wrong, I hope you’re right. But as a long term resident of the rural south, I’m accustomed to inexplicable fascism being repeatedly and enthusiastically elected by religious fools.

Moore will be elected and the Republican Congress will use him as a handy “squirrel” for the MSM to chase around rather than focus on the treasonous hyjacking of our republic.

The same thing just based on his belief in people. I like everything you said and hope you’re right

At this point I wouldn’t pish-posh a little magical thinking either.

There are already big-name Republicans in the state encouraging write-ins, there is at least one active write-in campaigner. If they can peel off enough Rs, that will help Jones as well.

It was the highest of the state. They kept saying it would be very close, yet it was not really. So why are they getting it wrong? There were not a plethora of yard signs either. But the timing was significant, given Charlottesville, and the attention given to a candidate who would not openly oppose racist "confederates". It was a vote for the future of the state and a decisive vote to endorse a realistic narrative of the history of the state that respected everyone. A big no to white supremacy as well. I have my fingers crossed.
I should also include that health care was a big issue according to the polls. If you can believe them.

I have friends in Alabama who tell me that many from the rural black community are very starch evangelicals and hard right Baptists. Under no circumstance will they vote for someone who supports abortion rights or lgbt rights. Their idea is that they hate moore but won't vote for Jones, so they will not turn out.

We'll see how that comes out after the election.

(Of course there are the rigged and stuffed ballot boxes too. You gotta wonder if the polls ever consider that margin.)

Roy whining about 'outsiders' but NYC Yankee telling 'Bamans how to vote?

Interesting!

I really do.

in the people of this country.

People vote on the issues. They get mad when you try to make it about a candidate's personal life.

You know it's comments like this I really don't understand why the Democratic party thinks black people should be loyal to them. I'm sorry I don't know why the Democratic party thinks "any black" should be loyal to them.

Last edited Mon Dec 11, 2017, 07:20 AM - Edit history (1)

If people who are discriminated against don't want people who are not to work to help end that discrimination, just let me know. It's just as easy for me to stay home and enjoy the rest of my life without politics.

As if that's not a problem as well.

So your excuse is, black people can't be treated as human because it's a political analysis?

Thank you for clearing that up

we are all demographics, also.

During the civil rights movement in the 60's, African Americans (and many Northern Whites) gave or risked their lives for voting rights, not only in the South, but all over this country. Why any African-American would stay home in an election where an avowed racist was running for the U.S. Senate, is beyond me.

I've spent my life in politics to help elect minorities, women and people of color. I've worked on the Deval Patrick campaign, Elizabeth Warren, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and Katherine Clark. Hell, I go back to Ed Brooke, where my father taught me about politics. I have fought hard to elect people that will change society and diversify our leaders. In each instance, it was of no personal benefit to me. I have a 30 year union job. I am a 65 year old white male. I have a defined pension and Social Security, an annuity, I own my own home and have 100% employer paid for health insurance. I am in the demographic that is favored by Republican policies, yet Ed Brooke is the only Republican I ever voted for.

Every election I have ever been involved with, breaks down demographic data and targets a Get Out The Vote (GOTV) plan. All of that is done to help human beings, especially those who government has marginalized or forgotten.

Your criticism of me is misplaced and counter productive. In order for change to be made in this country for human beings, we need to win elections, and analysis of demographic data is necessary for that to occur.

Now that the votes have been counted folks can stop blaming black voters for the Alabama race.

Not comparable. The fact that it is a federal race and not a state race works against us and makes the Virginia comparison even less relevant.

Northam was favored and won. Moore is favored and will win. I think the margin will be above the poll consensus.

Alabama is full of religious oddities who will always vote against the candidate who believes in a woman's right to choose. Always.

It comes down to this: does the level of disgust, anger and disappointment about Trump (and Roy Moore) outweigh the avid support for Trump and Moore in Alabama? Polls might give Moore the edge, but the trend is also falling national numbers for Trump in the last week, although that hasn't shown in the Senate polls.

You would have to live here to understand because just hearing about it doesn't tell you pervasive its problems and issues are.

I learned my lesson in Osoff vs. Handel in the GA-06. I think the reason Jones has been able to keep it so close in polling is that he's kept a low profile nationally. Any candidate, in states like GA & AL, should steer clear of MSNBC.

I guess my point is, please don't draw any inferences from what happened in VA. AL is a whole different animal.

Last edited Thu Dec 13, 2018, 05:51 PM - Edit history (2)

Great call!

been saying that since the beginning and have never wavered. The deep south rarely fails to live down to my expectations.

I think this race is winnable. I believe in a 50 state strategy and I believe in fighting every fight and trying to win them all.

and fought to win but it would take a true miracle for child molester moore not to win.

"it won't be close"?? Methinks you were a tad off. Thankfully, Jones had campaign workers and volunteers who believed in his chances

This is a great victory!

And there are a lot of Fundamentalists who fear God more than anything else 'cause god is the last word in their beliefs.

I really thought the Moore would pull it out tonight. (Hey, don't go there, that's NOT what I meant!)

I suppose enough of Alabama thought enough of their reputation to avoid being represented in the Senate by the worst of all possible choices. I still have my doubts that we can keep this seat, but for now, it will do. Collins, Corker, and/or Flake will give the Orange Menace enough to worry about for 2018.

Here's another prediction, while I'm hot. Doug Jones will be in office when Trump is not.

He will either vote like a progressive, in which case the Alabama electorate will vote him out as soon as they get a better choice in front of them (child molesters need not apply) or he will do what he said he would do, and cross the aisle here and there when he feels he needs to do so because of an arguably more conservative constituent base. If he does the latter, will his strong support from Democratic voters hold out? That remains to be seen.

The next time he's up, it's a presidential election year. Turnout will be high. The Alabama GOP will offer up a 2020 candidate who is far more palatable to Alabama voters and that "D" behind Jones' name will be hard to overcome.

in me that wanted Roy Moore to win. He would utterly destroy the republican party. There would be a lot of misery. Even without his sexual proclivities he is a terrible person. A real POS. But is the damage worth the price?

Even Senator Flake said, "Decency wins".

For the US in the larger sense, this is a good win. Trump is in even more trouble.

And Steve Bannon, the Yassir Arafat of the republican party, helped. Maybe that's enough.

but DAILY we here........

Muller will be fired
More arrests coming
Trump is done

Blah!

Gets old.

We hear is spelled H-E-A-R: as in listen.

Here is the place you're at.

Were did you go to school?

I've never predicted Mueller would be fired, there are more arrests coming and Trump's tenure will not end well.

Who's side are you on?

Daily I read about what "is about to happen soon" from people who have no clue.

The NYT and Washington Post would be good places to get good information. Actual reporters, etc.

And even take them with a grain of salt.

Until Mueller starts posting, I'll remain a skeptic.

You seem to need some grammar lessons, along with Trump.

Trump had trouble in his latest tweet with discerning the difference between "there and their". this is not a typo, but a lack of knowledge.

In your post here, you can't tell the difference between "here" and "Hear".

As we mock the President in his inability to tell the difference between "to" and "too", I can't help but notice that you have the same problem as he does.

Your post:

USALiberal (763 posts)

61. Well, that was a 50/50. And you knew the day it was decided.....

but DAILY we here........

Muller will be fired
More arrests coming
Trump is done

Blah!

http://ew.com/tv/2017/08/24/trump-their-twitter-typo/