But a 10 point lead seems unrealistic.

I'm too suspicious, I know, but is this Fox poll an attempt to rally the GOP voters who haven't yet been able to sign on to Moore?

Also, as we learned with Trump polling, a lot of poll respondents who are somehow willing to VOTE for a scumbag are embarrassed to admit it to a pollster. That could be happening here.

Then again, maybe those dads who are saying they'd be okay if Moore "courted" (gag) their teen daughters have actually appalled some GOP voters.

to rally their base.

and, Northam did better than most of the polls and pundits suggested, if I recall.

I'd love for the poll to be true, but I think they're trying to game the voters. This is likely a push to get Republicans who don't like Moore but HATE any Democrat to the polls to hold their noses and tighten their sphincters.

Last edited Mon Dec 11, 2017, 01:55 PM - Edit history (1)

More than Russia or Sarandon or outreach to whichever group or ground game or whatever or voter suppression. All those things are very real, by the way, and I’m not minimizing them.

But Democrats are notoriously bad at actually bothering to vote.

I think millions of us looked at the polls, said “She’s got this thing locked up. Why leave work early and stand in line when I can grab some KFC before I watch Cooking with the Stars’ while I read other people’s gossip on Facebook?’”

crazies.

I'll believe it Wed morning if Jones wins

I'm an optimist, so I dare hope!

All I will say is I will remain hopeful.

And pacify D’s or potential Jones voters.

they'd show Moore down 3, 4 or 5 points, I'd think. A 10 point difference broadcast on Fox might depress turnout - "oh he can't win anyways..."

Bet your life on that!

Oldest trick in the book. Try to encourage complacency.

And why would they be watching Fox News anyway?

Ever damn doctor's office, airports, many workplaces have fox fuckin news blaring 24/7 during working hours.

Still though, Alabama Dems are going to come out in droves... their vote normally NEVER counts.

dems come out in huge numbers and crush pedo Moore but I wont believe it till it happens.

Just GOTV Alabama!

WOOHOO!!!!!!

Not likely.

pulling the lever for a child molester.

Moore with a 9-point lead. Clearly both pollsters are using completely different methodologies. For all the conspiracists regarding the Fox News poll, there polls throughout the race have been way more bullish on Jones than other pollsters. They commision a pollster to do the polling and they just put their name on it -- just like CNN or any other network or newspaper. They are also highly rated by fivethirtyeight. The point is, do not disregard the poll because it is their poll. No matter what, someone is going to be looking real bad come Wednesday. The small amount of polling is all over the map.

Some democrats will see this down there and think its in the bag and stay home on election day.

Their polls are generally well-designed and credible. The problem with the polling in this race is that no one knows who is a "likely voter". TPM has a link to a surveymonkey analysis, where, depending on who the pollster rates as a "likely voter" shows the election from anywhere from a 9 pt Jones lead to a 9 pt Moore lead.

The polling data of contacted registered voters shows Jones ahead by 9-10 pts, but "weighting" gives a 20 pt range of outcomes.

That seems a high margin for what they consider to be likely voters. Registered voters I’d accept, but likely ones?

Link to tweet

I wonder if they were trying to drive republican turnout. If so it didn't work.
Looks like a lot of republicans stayed home.