ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 212,000 Jobs in February

Source: ADP®, Automatic Data Processing

ROSELAND, N.J. – March 4, 2015 – Private sector employment increased by 212,000 jobs from January to February according to the February ADP National Employment Report®. Broadly distributed to the public each month, free of charge, the ADP National Employment Report is produced by ADP®, a leading global provider of Human Capital Management (HCM) solutions, in collaboration with Moody’s Analytics. The report, which is derived from ADP’s actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis.

Payrolls for businesses with 49 or fewer employees increased by 94,000 jobs in February, down slightly from 97,000 in January. Employment among companies with 50-499 employees increased by 63,000 jobs, down from 106,000 the previous month. Employment at large companies – those with 500 or more employees – increased from January adding 56,000 jobs, up from 47,000. Companies with 500-999 employees added 18,000 jobs, up from January’s 16,000. Companies with over 1,000 employees added 38,000 jobs, up from 30,000 the previous month. ... Goods-producing employment rose by 31,000 jobs in February, down from 45,000 jobs gained in January. The construction industry added 31,000 jobs, the same number as last month. Meanwhile, manufacturing added 3,000 jobs in February, well below January’s 15,000.

Service-providing employment rose by 181,000 jobs in February, down from 206,000 in January. The ADP National Employment Report indicates that professional/business services contributed 34,000 jobs in February, a drop-off from January’s 49,000. Expansion in trade/transportation/utilities grew by 31,000, a sharp decline from January’s 50,000. The 20,000 new jobs added in financial activities is an increase from last month’s 15,000 and marks the largest gain in that sector since March 2006.

"While February’s job gains came in slightly lower than recent months, the trend of solid growth above 200,000 jobs per month continued,” said Carlos Rodriguez, president and chief executive officer of ADP. ... “What is also encouraging is that job gains are broad-based across all key industries.” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said, “Job growth is strong, but slowing from the torrid pace of recent months. Job gains remain broad-based, although the collapse in oil prices has begun to weigh on energy-related employment. At the current pace of growth, the economy will return to full employment by mid-2016.”

Total Employment

Change in Nonfarm Private Employment



Historical Trend

Change in Total Nonfarm Private Employment



Read more: http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/2015/February/NER/NER-February-2015.aspx

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[center]Introduction[/center]

Good morning, Freepers and DUers alike. I especially welcome our good friends from across the aisle. Please, everyone, put aside your differences long enough to digest the information. After that, you can engage in your usual donnybrook.

It is easy to find one paragraph, or one sentence, or one datum in this report that will support the most outlandish of conclusions, from "the sky is falling" to "we'll have blue skies, nothing but blue skies, from now on." Easy, but disingenuous.

Every month, you can find something in the report that will cause you concern. Take the information in context. Consider not just this month’s data, but the trend.

Please take the time to look at progree's not-to-be-missed thread, revised monthly. Thank you so much for that, progree. Here is the latest update:

Economy facts with links to official sources, rev 2/7/15


[center]Past Performance is Not a Guarantee of Future Results.[/center]

Nonetheless, the trend is your friend. Let’s look at some earlier numbers:

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in January 2015:

Payroll employment rises in January (+257,000); unemployment rate changes little (5.7%)

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in January 2015:

ADP National Employment Report: Private Sector Employment Increased by 213,000 Jobs in January

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in December 2014:

Payroll employment rises by 252,000 in December; unemployment rate declines to 5.6%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in December 2014 (hat tip, IDemo):

ADP Says Companies in U.S. Added 241,000 Workers in December

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in November 2014:

Payroll employment increases by 321,000 in November; unemployment rate unchanged at 5.8%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in November 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 208,000 Jobs Added in November

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in October 2014:

Payroll employment increases by 214,000 in October; unemployment rate edges down to 5.8%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in October 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 230,000 Jobs Added in October

Bureau of Labor Statistics, for employment in September 2014:

Payroll employment increases by 248,000 in September; unemployment rate declines to 5.9%

ADP® (Automatic Data Processing), for employment in September 2014:

ADP National Employment Report Shows 213,000 Jobs Added in September


[center]Nattering Nabobs of Negativism[/center]

Here’s a grim thought:

Fed economists: America’s missing workers are not coming back

Let’s follow that with another grim thought:

Why wage growth disparity tells the story of America's half-formed economic recovery

By Chico Harlan November 21, 2014
@chicoharlan
chico.harlan@washpost.com

WILMINGTON, Del. — Thomas Gray says he was fortunate coming out of the recession: He took a job in one of the nation’s fastest-growing industries, food services, preparing meals for 500 students in a Head Start cafeteria.

But after two years of work, his salary had not budged, so his mother came out of retirement and took a job at United Way. Four more years have passed, and Gray is skipping bills to manage his expenses. During that time, his salary has risen 58 cents, to $11.70 per hour. But after taking into account the rising price of goods and services — inflation — he has taken a 6 percent pay cut.
....

With unemployment down to 5.8 percent, the country’s half-formed recovery is often described with a convenient shorthand: We have jobs but little wage growth. But stagnancy is just an average, and for many Americans, the years since the financial crisis have pushed them farther from the line, according to a detailed analysis of government labor statistics by The Washington Post.
....

Among the winners in this climate: Older workers, women and those with finance and technology jobs. ... Among the losers: Part-timers, the young, men, and those in the health, retail and food industries.
....

Chico Harlan covers personal economics as part of The Post's financial team.
@chicoharlan
chico.harlan@washpost.com

Dissenters, take note:

A New Reason to Question the Official Unemployment Rate

David Leonhardt
AUG. 26, 2014

The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report has been the subject of some wacky conspiracy theories. None was wackier than the suggestion from Jack Welch, the former General Electric chief executive, that government statisticians were exaggerating job growth during President Obama’s 2012 re-election campaign. Both Republican and Democratic economists dismissed those charges as silly.

But to call the people who compile the jobs report honest, nonpartisan civil servants is not to say that the jobs report is perfect. The report tries to estimate employment in a big country – and to do so quickly, to give policy makers, business executives and everyone else a sense of how the economy is performing. It’s a tough task.

And it has become tougher, because Americans are less willing to respond to surveys than they used to be.

A new academic paper suggests that the unemployment rate appears to have become less accurate over the last two decades, in part because of this rise in nonresponse. In particular, there seems to have been an increase in the number of people who once would have qualified as officially unemployed and today are considered out of the labor force, neither working nor looking for work.

[center]On the Road?[/center]

The DOL Newsletter - October 6, 2011

DOL Data: There's an App for That
Have an iPhone, iPod Touch or Android phone? Now you can access the latest labor data and news from the department's Bureau of Labor Statistics and Employment and Training Administration in the palm of your hand. The latest free mobile app displays real-time updates to the unemployment rate, Unemployment Insurance initial claims, the Consumer Price Index, payroll employment, average hourly earnings, the Producer Price Index, the Employment Cost Index, productivity, the U.S. Import Price Index and the U.S. Export Price Index in real time, as they are published each week, month or quarter. News releases providing context for the data can also be accessed through the app and viewed within a mobile browser or as PDF documents.

US Labor Department launches economic and employment statistics app

Smartphone users gain mobile access to latest labor data and news

WASHINGTON — The most up-to-date employment data and economic news releases from the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics and its Employment and Training Administration now can be viewed using a new mobile application.
....

The new app is currently available for the iPhone and iPod Touch as well as Android phones. The Labor Department is working to develop versions for BlackBerry and iPad devices. Visit http://m.dol.gov/apps/ to download this and other mobile apps.

Download the Data, Other Mobile Apps


[center]A Few More Things[/center]

Meet FRED, every wonk’s secret weapon

FRED stands for Federal Reserve Economic Data. It serves as an online clearinghouse for a wealth of numbers: unemployment rates, prices of goods, GDP and CPI, things common and obscure. Today, FRED is more than a little bit famous, thanks to the public’s fascination with economic data.

Federal Reserve Economic Data

So how many jobs must be created every month to have an effect on the unemployment rate? There's an app for that:

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Jobs Calculator™

Monthly Employment Reports from BLS

The U.S. Census Bureau has its own releases:

U.S. Census Bureau Latest News

U.S. Census Bureau Economic Indicators

Read tomorrow's news before it happens. The schedule for all economic reports:

Economic Calendar