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bananas

(27,509 posts) Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:30 PM Mar 2015

Federal report: Chance of mega-quake hitting California in the next 30 years increases

Source: Associated Press

Scientists are virtually certain that California will be rocked by a strong earthquake in the next 30 years. Now they say the risk of a mega-quake is more likely than previously thought.

The chance of a magnitude-8 quake striking the state in the next three decades jumped to 7 percent from 4.7 percent, mainly because scientists took into account the possibility that several faults can shake at once, releasing seismic energy that results in greater destruction.

While the risk of a mega-quake is higher than past estimates, it's more likely — greater than 99 percent chance — that California will be rattled by a magnitude-6.7 jolt similar in size to the 1994 Northridge disaster. The chance of a Northridge-size quake was slightly higher in Northern California than Southern California — 95 percent versus 93 percent, according to a report released Tuesday by the U.S. Geological Survey.

"California is earthquake country, and residents should live every day like it could be the day of a big one," USGS geophysicist and lead author Ned Field said.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.usnews.com/news/science/news/articles/2015/03/10/report-strong-quake-certain-to-hit-california-in-the-future

19 replies

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Federal report: Chance of mega-quake hitting California in the next 30 years increases (Original Post) bananas Mar 2015 OP

I've existed in LAfor 38 years olddots Mar 2015 #1

Gee, I wonder why. valerief Mar 2015 #2

Actually, I don't think they took that into account. bananas Mar 2015 #5

I think the fracking helps it jump. nt valerief Mar 2015 #7

If fracking triggers a major quake - what would people say then? Elmer S. E. Dump Mar 2015 #14

PG&E overlooked key seismic test at Diablo Canyon nuclear plant bananas Mar 2015 #3

?Como se dice en espanol "Fukushima"? KamaAina Mar 2015 #6

Ye olde "Gonna happen in the next 30 years" raises its hoary head again . . . Journeyman Mar 2015 #4

7% for mag 8, 48% for 7.5, 93% for 7, 99% for 6.7 bananas Mar 2015 #8

Yeah. As Colbert said about another prognosticator, those are very sharp numbers. . . Journeyman Mar 2015 #9

The Northridge Quake didn't happen? bananas Mar 2015 #11

What are you talking about? The numbers you give are for their guesses. . . Journeyman Mar 2015 #12

It's a news report of a scientific study. nt bananas Mar 2015 #13

Here's a link to the report, and a quote by the lead author bananas Mar 2015 #15

What degrees in earthquake or related sciences do you have? CreekDog Mar 2015 #16

This message was self-deleted by its author Journeyman Mar 2015 #18

Good news for the GOP. I'd like to see them run on it! blkmusclmachine Mar 2015 #10

more comprehensive LA Times story. . . updated an hour ago (5:10 pm ET) MBS Mar 2015 #17

USGS report MBS Mar 2015 #19

olddots

(10,237 posts)

1. I've existed in LAfor 38 years

Reply to bananas (Original post)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:36 PM

Mar 2015

The whole scrawl is built to last half that time .

valerief

(53,235 posts)

2. Gee, I wonder why.

Reply to bananas (Original post)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:37 PM

Mar 2015

http://www.cafrackfacts.org/fracking-in-california/where-is-fracking-occurring/

bananas

(27,509 posts)

5. Actually, I don't think they took that into account.

Reply to valerief (Reply #2)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:47 PM

Mar 2015

The OP says:

The new report included newly discovered fault zones and the possibility that a quake can jump from fault to fault. Because of this knowledge, the odds of a catastrophic quake — magnitude 8 or larger — in the next 30 years increased.

valerief

(53,235 posts)

7. I think the fracking helps it jump. nt

Reply to bananas (Reply #5)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:51 PM

Mar 2015

Elmer S. E. Dump

(5,751 posts)

14. If fracking triggers a major quake - what would people say then?

Reply to valerief (Reply #2)

Wed Mar 11, 2015, 01:41 PM

Mar 2015

bananas

(27,509 posts)

3. PG&E overlooked key seismic test at Diablo Canyon nuclear plant

Reply to bananas (Original post)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:44 PM

Mar 2015

http://www.sfgate.com/business/article/PG-E-overlooked-key-seismic-test-at-Diablo-Canyon-6121386.php

PG&E overlooked key seismic test at Diablo Canyon nuclear plant
By David R. Baker Updated 2:06 pm, Monday, March 9, 2015

Pacific Gas and Electric Co. replaced $842 million of equipment at the heart of the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant without first making sure the new gear could pass a vital seismic safety test required in the facility’s license, The Chronicle has learned.

<snip>

Earthquake safety has been a concern at the plant ever since the Hosgri Fault was discovered in 1971, three years after construction at Diablo began. Another fault that passes within 2,000 feet of the reactors, the Shoreline Fault, was found in 2008, after the plant had been operating for two decades.

<snip>

Friends of the Earth last year filed a lawsuit claiming the Nuclear Regulatory Commission illegally allowed PG&E to amend the seismic safety portion of its license without public hearings. The move came after one of the commission’s own former inspectors at Diablo Canyon argued that the plant was no longer operating within the terms of its license and should be shut down until PG&E demonstrated it could withstand earthquakes from several recently discovered fault lines, including the Shoreline.

<snip>

“With every study, we’re finding that the seismic threat is larger than previously understood,” said former state Sen, and Assemblyman Sam Blakeslee, who has a degree in geophysics and pushed for more earthquake studies at Diablo Canyon while in office. “It’s remarkable that the facility was put here at all.”

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)

6. ?Como se dice en espanol "Fukushima"?

Reply to bananas (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:49 PM

Mar 2015

Remember, PG&E are the guys who torched an entire neighborhood in San Bruno with an inadequately inspected gas pipeline.

Journeyman

(15,036 posts)

4. Ye olde "Gonna happen in the next 30 years" raises its hoary head again . . .

Reply to bananas (Original post)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:44 PM

Mar 2015

Never been a time in my life (and I'm 60+) where the "big one" wasn't on tap sometime "in the next 30 years." Every time there's a temblor of any merit, there's a passel of prognosticators to pass doom and gloom on us all. And it's always "in the next 30 years."

Shit. Anyone can make such claims, and be proven right, too. And even if the fabled "big one" doesn't land in all that time, who'll remember a single warning out of an endless litany?

One's coming. No doubt about it. But Ned Field's advice is better than any apocalyptic threat: Live every day prepared for anything, and nothing will ever catch you by surprise.

bananas

(27,509 posts)

8. 7% for mag 8, 48% for 7.5, 93% for 7, 99% for 6.7

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 07:52 PM

Mar 2015

Journeyman

(15,036 posts)

9. Yeah. As Colbert said about another prognosticator, those are very sharp numbers. . .

Reply to bananas (Reply #8)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:32 PM

Mar 2015

however did they extract them without slicing their sphincter to shreds?

bananas

(27,509 posts)

11. The Northridge Quake didn't happen?

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #9)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:40 PM

Mar 2015

It's a conspiracy, like the moon landings?

Journeyman

(15,036 posts)

12. What are you talking about? The numbers you give are for their guesses. . .

Reply to bananas (Reply #11)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 08:49 PM

Mar 2015

for when the next quake will come. Same bullshit numbers these fools pull out of their asses every time there's a quake. Of course the Northridge quake happened. And there will be more quakes just like it, if not larger and certainly smaller, in the coming years. But to give us such "precise" numbers for something they haven't more certainty of than you and I is pure speculation, fear mongering intended solely to generate more money for their research.

As I said, every quake -- and plenty of times in between -- these charlatans come forth with their "30 years" fears. It's all a game. Where in the world (other than the deepest recesses of their own asses) did they draw a number that the chance of a magnitude 8 quake has increased from 4.7% to 7% -- based entirely on their belated understanding that maybe two faults can react at the same time.

bananas

(27,509 posts)

13. It's a news report of a scientific study. nt

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #12)

Tue Mar 10, 2015, 10:36 PM

Mar 2015

bananas

(27,509 posts)

15. Here's a link to the report, and a quote by the lead author

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 11, 2015, 05:31 PM

Mar 2015

Here's a link to the report: http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2015/3009/pdf/fs2015-3009.pdf

I don't have time to look at it, but they aren't "fear-mongering":

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2015/0311/Why-California-megaquake-could-come-sooner-than-forecast

<snip>

California homeowners shouldn't be any more concerned than usual, the report's authors say.

"For the average citizen it’s nothing more than a reminder that this is earthquake country and big earthquakes can occur anywhere in the state," says Ned Field, a USGS seismologist and lead author of the report. "Going from one (major earthquake) every 600 years to one every 500 years, that’s a pretty rare thing being changed to still a pretty rare thing."

<snip>

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)

16. What degrees in earthquake or related sciences do you have?

Reply to Journeyman (Reply #12)

Wed Mar 11, 2015, 06:00 PM

Mar 2015

what publications have you authored?

what I'm asking is, you say "they pull these numbers out of their asses".

really? what is your expertise to conclude this?

are you more educated on this topic than the people you're mocking?