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mahatmakanejeeves

(57,459 posts) Tue Mar 17, 2015, 11:46 AM Mar 2015

U.S. Housing Starts Plunge in February

Source: The Wall Street Journal.

Demand uneven in the housing market amid harsh winter weather

By Kate Davidson
Updated March 17, 2015 11:08 a.m. ET

Housing starts plunged in February, the latest sign that harsh winter weather is slowing economic activity.

U.S. housing starts plunged 17% from a month earlier to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 897,000 in February, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Starts on single-family units, which exclude apartments and represent almost two-thirds of the market, dropped 14.9%. Multifamily units, including apartments and condominiums, fell 20.8%.

Read more: http://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-housing-starts-tumble-17-in-february-1426595495

12 replies

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U.S. Housing Starts Plunge in February (Original Post) mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2015 OP

February - a good deal of the country is either freezing or under snow. Not a good time to start jwirr Mar 2015 #1

and january's not? ND-Dem Mar 2015 #3

Sure - I don't remember the percentage of starts from the two proceeding months. I doubt that jwirr Mar 2015 #4

Those data are (sheesh, that sounds awkward) probably at Commerce, here: mahatmakanejeeves Mar 2015 #6

february starts are down from january. ND-Dem Mar 2015 #11

February was far more brutal than January.... at least here in Indiana. Adrahil Mar 2015 #5

Wait another month - data doesn't look significant. Yo_Mama Mar 2015 #9

well there's nothing like a building project during a blizzard magical thyme Mar 2015 #2

No slowdown in Orlando! Roland99 Mar 2015 #7

I'm going to say at this point it is a non-issue. February weather was pretty harsh LynneSin Mar 2015 #8

"Demand uneven in the housing market amid harsh winter weather" Tarheel_Dem Mar 2015 #10

I think housing starts reflect what builders believe the WestSeattle2 Mar 2015 #12

jwirr

(39,215 posts)

1. February - a good deal of the country is either freezing or under snow. Not a good time to start

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 11:55 AM

Mar 2015

building anything.

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)

3. and january's not?

Reply to jwirr (Reply #1)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:28 PM

Mar 2015

"U.S. housing starts plunged 17% from a month earlier"

jwirr

(39,215 posts)

4. Sure - I don't remember the percentage of starts from the two proceeding months. I doubt that

Reply to ND-Dem (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:44 PM

Mar 2015

they went up that much. Winter - regardless of the month is not a good time to start building.

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,459 posts)

6. Those data are (sheesh, that sounds awkward) probably at Commerce, here:

Reply to jwirr (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:52 PM

Mar 2015

Last edited Tue Mar 17, 2015, 01:36 PM - Edit history (1)

New Residential Construction

ETA to note that "data" are plural, so the word gets "those" instead of "that."

ND-Dem

(4,571 posts)

11. february starts are down from january.

Reply to jwirr (Reply #4)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 08:33 PM

Mar 2015

Adrahil

(13,340 posts)

5. February was far more brutal than January.... at least here in Indiana.

Reply to ND-Dem (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:45 PM

Mar 2015

We barely got any snow in January here, which is unusual. OTOH, February was fairly rough.

Yo_Mama

(8,303 posts)

9. Wait another month - data doesn't look significant.

Reply to ND-Dem (Reply #3)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 02:01 PM

Mar 2015

This series is seasonally adjusted, but the small number of normal starts means that a small deviation can produce a large-looking result.

So I wouldn't get too excited, although it is disappointing and it adds to a run of bad or slackening data.

One clue that one shouldn't panic is that authorizations were up 7.7% YoY (well over 2% confidence interval). Total authorized-but-not-yet-started were up 14.1% YoY with a 90% confidence interval of 8.8%. Starts WERE down from January, and YoY are down, but only -3.3% YoY with a confidence interval of 12.5%, indicating that number really doesn't mean anything. YTD (Jan/Feb) starts were up 8% with a confidence interval of over 9%.

If auth/permits were slowing too, it would mean more, but given strong authorizations, this is likely to be substantially weather-related. An alternative explanation is that turnovers are slowing (possible given NAHB), but given the weather that would not be too surprising.

On a YTD basis, starts were up in the Midwest, South and West regions, although not by margins exceeding the 90% confidence interval. In short, this data isn't all that significant because of the low level of activity.

The under-construction figures were 17% up YoY. With that and high authorizations, it seems premature to place much weight on this stat.

magical thyme

(14,881 posts)

2. well there's nothing like a building project during a blizzard

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:07 PM

Mar 2015

Roland99

(53,342 posts)

7. No slowdown in Orlando!

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 12:53 PM

Mar 2015

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)

8. I'm going to say at this point it is a non-issue. February weather was pretty harsh

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 01:00 PM

Mar 2015

My heating bill was the absolutely worst in February when we had a few weeks of super deep freeze up here in the Northeast. I can almost guarentee the last thing anyone in the Northeast that anyone wants to do is going house shopping.

I dn't think there is a trend here, just proof that February was a shitty month to buy houses because of the crappy weather.

Tarheel_Dem

(31,234 posts)

10. "Demand uneven in the housing market amid harsh winter weather"

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 02:07 PM

Mar 2015

There's your explanation. February was brutal. There were parts of the country that broke records for snowfall, and posted new ones.

WestSeattle2

(1,730 posts)

12. I think housing starts reflect what builders believe the

Reply to mahatmakanejeeves (Original post)

Tue Mar 17, 2015, 08:45 PM

Mar 2015

housing market will be like in 8-10 months. This report simply indicates that builders aren't confident about the housing market this coming fall. Whether it snows or not in February is immaterial. In fact west of the Mississippi it's been a great winter - warmer and dryer than normal.

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