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brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 07:45 AM Mar 2015

Emanuel has 16-point lead over Garcia in latest poll

Source: Chicago Sun-Times

A new weekly mayoral poll ahead of the April 7 runoff election shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel is continuing to gain further separation from his challenger, Jesus “Chuy” Garcia.

The Ogden & Fry poll conducted Saturday among 951 likely voters shows Emanuel getting support from 48.5 percent of those polled, while Garcia comes in at 32.1 percent. A large number of those polled — 18.4 percent — say they’re still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points.

This is the fourth runoff poll Ogden & Fry has conducted and each week, Emanuel has increased his lead. Last week’s poll had him with a 10.4-point lead.

On Friday, the same poll was run with the “undecided” option removed. Of the 877 likely voters in that poll, Emanuel came in at 55.8 percent with Garcia at 44.2 percent.

Read more: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/461235/emanuel-16-point-lead-garcia-latest-poll



A lot of people projected hope on to this race, but I don't think it was ever really that close.
36 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Emanuel has 16-point lead over Garcia in latest poll (Original Post) brooklynite Mar 2015 OP
Rahm is getting republican support Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #1
Last time I checked, there aren't a lot of voting Republicans in Chicago. brooklynite Mar 2015 #2
Why are republicans funding a "democrat"? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #3
The word "democrat" has a different meaning in Chicago mucifer Mar 2015 #14
more than you think. mopinko Mar 2015 #13
Come visit us rpannier Mar 2015 #15
You should stick to NYC politics and "salons" (whatever the fuck that is). nt Guy Whitey Corngood Mar 2015 #25
you have not been paying attention then questionseverything Mar 2015 #32
That's SUBURBAN Cook County...not the City of Chicago brooklynite Mar 2015 #34
correct questionseverything Mar 2015 #35
148,000 Chicagoans voted for Romney in 2012. former9thward Mar 2015 #33
1% owner media trying to shape the result? vt_native Mar 2015 #4
When has there been an indication that Garcia was doing well? brooklynite Mar 2015 #5
When he forced an "unprecedented" runoff election Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #6
If that's the only victory you care about... brooklynite Mar 2015 #7
You seem very enthisiastic about the 3rd-Way? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #8
I have no enthusiasm whatsoever...I don't have a horse in the race brooklynite Mar 2015 #9
So what's the point of your OP? Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #10
Psst...here's a secret. You're on a political blog. People post political news here. brooklynite Mar 2015 #11
Yes! Usually things they are "concerned" about Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #17
I post newsworthy stories about all sorts of subjects... brooklynite Mar 2015 #24
And to say that Chuy is the reason is a falsehood. Chicago1980 Mar 2015 #12
The "real" reason is Rahm isn't preferred Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #21
The status quo Chicago1980 Mar 2015 #31
the runoff system is not that old. mopinko Mar 2015 #16
Cool. Looks like Democracy in action Cosmic Kitten Mar 2015 #18
The media continues to push the "he gives no details City Lights Mar 2015 #19
IMO Garcia is just blowing it. GitRDun Mar 2015 #20
Rahm Has A Ton Of Money To Keep Running Those Ads.... global1 Mar 2015 #26
I think the answer to your question is the ads... GitRDun Mar 2015 #30
Chuy has not been doing so well during the debates. mucifer Mar 2015 #22
Don't be discouraged! How to contribute to Chuy Garcia's campaign RufusTFirefly Mar 2015 #23
It is hard to feel sorry for Chicago WillTwain Mar 2015 #27
Aww geez. This is so disappointing! ananda Mar 2015 #28
Ohhhhhh,,,, that moment Cryptoad Mar 2015 #29
I like Garcia but dariomax Mar 2015 #36

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
1. Rahm is getting republican support
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 07:59 AM
Mar 2015

This is what people mean when
they say, 3rd-Way democrats are
no different from republicans.

Republicans Heap Money On Rahm Emanuel's Re-election Campaign

Standing out among the big contributions to Emanuel’s super PAC, Chicago Forward, is a $500,000 donation -- more than half of the group’s fundraising haul for the month of March so far -- from hedge fund billionaire and Republican donor Ken Griffin. Chicago Forward money is now being used to attack Garcia with negative television ads.

In total, Republican donors have put more than $2.3 million behind Emanuel’s re-election since Jan. 1, 2013, according to Illinois campaign finance records.

Emanuel has come under attack from Garcia and the coalition of progressive groups and labor unions backing him for siding with wealthy billionaires rather than working-class Chicagoans on several issues. These range from the closing of public schools to the direction of public pension money into hedge funds and other alternative investment accounts to the privatization of parking meters, roads, subway cards, school maintenance and other pieces of the city’s infrastructure.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/19/rahm-emanuel-republicans_n_6904566.html


3rd-Way democrat... no different than a republican

mucifer

(23,572 posts)
14. The word "democrat" has a different meaning in Chicago
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:35 AM
Mar 2015

Also, in the mayoral race they don't run by party. This changed when Harold Washington, an African American won as mayor by getting a strong coalition of blacks, Hispanics, LGBT and white liberals out to vote. The conservative white democrats split the vote in the primary between Daley and Byrne. People in Chicago don't vote republican. We just don't. But, in that general election an unknown bernie epton a republican almost won the general election with the motto "before it's too late". Since then the election rules got changed so that there are no political parties in the mayoral election and a candidate has to get 50% to win or there is a run off. That might have lost the election for Harold Washington. But, it is helping Jesus Chuy Garcia. Unfortunately, Chuy doesn't have the charisma, witt and personality of Harold. He was amazing in the debates. He got us all laughing at his opponents. He was a wonderful mayor who had a hard fight against city hall and died too young.

The Chicago machine system politics is unique unto itself.

questionseverything

(9,661 posts)
32. you have not been paying attention then
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 02:30 PM
Mar 2015
http://results1114.cookcountyclerk.com/Summary.aspx?eid=110414

according to these official election results (which gave us our repub gov) the dem turn out was just over 52% of total voters

questionseverything

(9,661 posts)
35. correct
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 04:32 PM
Mar 2015

however looking at same race

http://www.chicagoelections.com/en/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=11

i do find it odd that the burbs turned out more voters than the entire city

burbs 696,403

city 668,033

i remember before electronic vote ,down staters would say, we vote and then the city of chicago wipes out the rest the state ..now all it takes is the chicago suburbs to wipe out whole city

and still 22% repb turn out aint nothing

http://www.chicagoelections.com/en/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=11

former9thward

(32,082 posts)
33. 148,000 Chicagoans voted for Romney in 2012.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 02:41 PM
Mar 2015

That may not be alot for you but they will make a difference in a low turnout close election.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
5. When has there been an indication that Garcia was doing well?
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 08:11 AM
Mar 2015

His only accomplishment (jointly with the other alternatives) was keeping Rahm from winning outright. He was never close in votes.

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
7. If that's the only victory you care about...
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 08:24 AM
Mar 2015

Chuy Garcia had 32% in the first round. He has 32% today.

Rahm Emanuel has always had a double digit lead.

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
8. You seem very enthisiastic about the 3rd-Way?
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 08:51 AM
Mar 2015

Rahm does not represent
"democratic" values.

Yet you seem very encouraged
that he will win his reelection?

Of course, Rahm basically told
the Democratic wing of the party
to go eff themselves, "retards" etc.

Why do you seem to endorse Rahm?

brooklynite

(94,745 posts)
9. I have no enthusiasm whatsoever...I don't have a horse in the race
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:15 AM
Mar 2015

I DO believe in choosing reality over hopes and dreams. The reality is that Rahm has been consistently in the lead, and Garcia has never broken the low 30s.

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
10. So what's the point of your OP?
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:29 AM
Mar 2015

Was your post intended
to demoralize, or simply
say "hey, outsiders can't win"...
told ya so?

Why would you make a post
about something which you
have no vested interest?

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
17. Yes! Usually things they are "concerned" about
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:38 AM
Mar 2015

You have created confusion
by posting about political
concern which you claim to
have no interest in?

That creates confusion because
it appears counter intuitive to
how a "political blog" usually functions?

And, you promote Hillary, another
3rd-Way candidate, with ties to Rahm.

Chicago1980

(1,968 posts)
12. And to say that Chuy is the reason is a falsehood.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:32 AM
Mar 2015

There were 4 other candidates besides the incumbent running...

-Willie Wilson
-Chuy Garcia
-Dock Walls
-Robert Forietti

Cosmic Kitten

(3,498 posts)
21. The "real" reason is Rahm isn't preferred
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:41 AM
Mar 2015

It's a good thing to see
the status quo challenged
from the left

mopinko

(70,239 posts)
16. the runoff system is not that old.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:36 AM
Mar 2015

started after daley II's election. so, this is the first time it was anyone but daley.

City Lights

(25,171 posts)
19. The media continues to push the "he gives no details
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:40 AM
Mar 2015

about any of his plans" theme. Last Fall, Rauner gave no details about any of his plans, and the media was mostly silent about it. Every now and then I'd hear an anchor mention it, but not like now. Garcia's name isn't mentioned without one of the anchors making a comment about it.

GitRDun

(1,846 posts)
20. IMO Garcia is just blowing it.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:41 AM
Mar 2015

I live in the Chicago area, so I see a lot of the commercials.

Rahm is running a series of spots that, in my opinion, are pretty bad for the Garcia campaign.

These adds show an interview with Garcia where he declines to say how he would pay for his proposals. Another says he would use "creative financing" to pay for them.

I've seen no adds to refute these Rahm adds.

I don't know a lot about Garcia, but I can imagine most who see these unanswered adds would not see Garcia in a favorable light.

global1

(25,272 posts)
26. Rahm Has A Ton Of Money To Keep Running Those Ads....
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 10:48 AM
Mar 2015

Chuy is cash poor. He who has the most money wins usually. Rahm really doesn't have a ground game (i.e., feet on the street). Chuy needs to get the people in the neighborhoods to realize he really can beat Rahm if they get out and vote. The key is voter turnout in this election. It is winnable for Chuy if there is a big voter turnout.

I also question the poll. Who are the people they are polling? I can't believe that Rahm has a double digit lead after talking with and listening to people in Chicago. They just don't like Rahm but that dislike is not showing up in the poll numbers and I finding that hard to believe.

It's interesting because poll numbers seem to cut the spirit of the people and if they are thinking it is a double digit lead - they might be getting disillusioned. This might cause them to stay home on election day.

Chuy's people need to work on their ground game from now to the election.

GitRDun

(1,846 posts)
30. I think the answer to your question is the ads...
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 11:47 AM
Mar 2015

From what I can see, there has been no response add from Garcia. Absent that, no ground game will be good enough to overcome those adds, in my opinion. People vote on very little information.

Instead of running adds on Rahm's closing of public schools, he should be responding to the Rahm charges that he can't pay for his proposals. Those Rahm adds are too powerful to warrant no response.

Again, just my opinion. I just don't see external influences effecting this campaign. I think Chuy is ineffective in getting out an alternative message based on what I can see.

mucifer

(23,572 posts)
22. Chuy has not been doing so well during the debates.
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 09:42 AM
Mar 2015

I got my Chuy sign in my window and I donated to the campaign. But, it's not looking good.

 

WillTwain

(1,489 posts)
27. It is hard to feel sorry for Chicago
Tue Mar 24, 2015, 10:54 AM
Mar 2015

Or Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Florida, or Ohio, or Illinois, or any city or state that stab themselves repeatedly - S&M relationships all of them.

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