Emanuel has 16-point lead over Garcia in latest poll
Source: Chicago Sun-Times
A new weekly mayoral poll ahead of the April 7 runoff election shows Mayor Rahm Emanuel is continuing to gain further separation from his challenger, Jesus Chuy Garcia.
The Ogden & Fry poll conducted Saturday among 951 likely voters shows Emanuel getting support from 48.5 percent of those polled, while Garcia comes in at 32.1 percent. A large number of those polled 18.4 percent say theyre still undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 3.24 percentage points.
This is the fourth runoff poll Ogden & Fry has conducted and each week, Emanuel has increased his lead. Last weeks poll had him with a 10.4-point lead.
On Friday, the same poll was run with the undecided option removed. Of the 877 likely voters in that poll, Emanuel came in at 55.8 percent with Garcia at 44.2 percent.
Read more: http://chicago.suntimes.com/chicago-politics/7/71/461235/emanuel-16-point-lead-garcia-latest-poll
A lot of people projected hope on to this race, but I don't think it was ever really that close.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)This is what people mean when
they say, 3rd-Way democrats are
no different from republicans.
Standing out among the big contributions to Emanuels super PAC, Chicago Forward, is a $500,000 donation -- more than half of the groups fundraising haul for the month of March so far -- from hedge fund billionaire and Republican donor Ken Griffin. Chicago Forward money is now being used to attack Garcia with negative television ads.
In total, Republican donors have put more than $2.3 million behind Emanuels re-election since Jan. 1, 2013, according to Illinois campaign finance records.
Emanuel has come under attack from Garcia and the coalition of progressive groups and labor unions backing him for siding with wealthy billionaires rather than working-class Chicagoans on several issues. These range from the closing of public schools to the direction of public pension money into hedge funds and other alternative investment accounts to the privatization of parking meters, roads, subway cards, school maintenance and other pieces of the citys infrastructure.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/19/rahm-emanuel-republicans_n_6904566.html
3rd-Way democrat... no different than a republican
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)mucifer
(23,572 posts)Also, in the mayoral race they don't run by party. This changed when Harold Washington, an African American won as mayor by getting a strong coalition of blacks, Hispanics, LGBT and white liberals out to vote. The conservative white democrats split the vote in the primary between Daley and Byrne. People in Chicago don't vote republican. We just don't. But, in that general election an unknown bernie epton a republican almost won the general election with the motto "before it's too late". Since then the election rules got changed so that there are no political parties in the mayoral election and a candidate has to get 50% to win or there is a run off. That might have lost the election for Harold Washington. But, it is helping Jesus Chuy Garcia. Unfortunately, Chuy doesn't have the charisma, witt and personality of Harold. He was amazing in the debates. He got us all laughing at his opponents. He was a wonderful mayor who had a hard fight against city hall and died too young.
The Chicago machine system politics is unique unto itself.
mopinko
(70,239 posts)actually.
rpannier
(24,339 posts)Go to the north side, they're there
And they're are quite a few
Guy Whitey Corngood
(26,505 posts)questionseverything
(9,661 posts)according to these official election results (which gave us our repub gov) the dem turn out was just over 52% of total voters
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)questionseverything
(9,661 posts)however looking at same race
http://www.chicagoelections.com/en/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=11
i do find it odd that the burbs turned out more voters than the entire city
burbs 696,403
city 668,033
i remember before electronic vote ,down staters would say, we vote and then the city of chicago wipes out the rest the state ..now all it takes is the chicago suburbs to wipe out whole city
and still 22% repb turn out aint nothing
http://www.chicagoelections.com/en/wdlevel3.asp?elec_code=11
former9thward
(32,082 posts)That may not be alot for you but they will make a difference in a low turnout close election.
vt_native
(484 posts)or demoralize Garcia voters?
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)His only accomplishment (jointly with the other alternatives) was keeping Rahm from winning outright. He was never close in votes.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Chuy Garcia had 32% in the first round. He has 32% today.
Rahm Emanuel has always had a double digit lead.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)Rahm does not represent
"democratic" values.
Yet you seem very encouraged
that he will win his reelection?
Of course, Rahm basically told
the Democratic wing of the party
to go eff themselves, "retards" etc.
Why do you seem to endorse Rahm?
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)I DO believe in choosing reality over hopes and dreams. The reality is that Rahm has been consistently in the lead, and Garcia has never broken the low 30s.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)Was your post intended
to demoralize, or simply
say "hey, outsiders can't win"...
told ya so?
Why would you make a post
about something which you
have no vested interest?
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)You have created confusion
by posting about political
concern which you claim to
have no interest in?
That creates confusion because
it appears counter intuitive to
how a "political blog" usually functions?
And, you promote Hillary, another
3rd-Way candidate, with ties to Rahm.
brooklynite
(94,745 posts)...you have the option to not read them.
BTW: I notice you're not complaining about these other "demoralizing" posts:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141047402#post20
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141047402#post22
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141047402#post12
Chicago1980
(1,968 posts)There were 4 other candidates besides the incumbent running...
-Willie Wilson
-Chuy Garcia
-Dock Walls
-Robert Forietti
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)It's a good thing to see
the status quo challenged
from the left
Chicago1980
(1,968 posts)doesn't have a real challenger.
mopinko
(70,239 posts)started after daley II's election. so, this is the first time it was anyone but daley.
Cosmic Kitten
(3,498 posts)City Lights
(25,171 posts)about any of his plans" theme. Last Fall, Rauner gave no details about any of his plans, and the media was mostly silent about it. Every now and then I'd hear an anchor mention it, but not like now. Garcia's name isn't mentioned without one of the anchors making a comment about it.
GitRDun
(1,846 posts)I live in the Chicago area, so I see a lot of the commercials.
Rahm is running a series of spots that, in my opinion, are pretty bad for the Garcia campaign.
These adds show an interview with Garcia where he declines to say how he would pay for his proposals. Another says he would use "creative financing" to pay for them.
I've seen no adds to refute these Rahm adds.
I don't know a lot about Garcia, but I can imagine most who see these unanswered adds would not see Garcia in a favorable light.
global1
(25,272 posts)Chuy is cash poor. He who has the most money wins usually. Rahm really doesn't have a ground game (i.e., feet on the street). Chuy needs to get the people in the neighborhoods to realize he really can beat Rahm if they get out and vote. The key is voter turnout in this election. It is winnable for Chuy if there is a big voter turnout.
I also question the poll. Who are the people they are polling? I can't believe that Rahm has a double digit lead after talking with and listening to people in Chicago. They just don't like Rahm but that dislike is not showing up in the poll numbers and I finding that hard to believe.
It's interesting because poll numbers seem to cut the spirit of the people and if they are thinking it is a double digit lead - they might be getting disillusioned. This might cause them to stay home on election day.
Chuy's people need to work on their ground game from now to the election.
GitRDun
(1,846 posts)From what I can see, there has been no response add from Garcia. Absent that, no ground game will be good enough to overcome those adds, in my opinion. People vote on very little information.
Instead of running adds on Rahm's closing of public schools, he should be responding to the Rahm charges that he can't pay for his proposals. Those Rahm adds are too powerful to warrant no response.
Again, just my opinion. I just don't see external influences effecting this campaign. I think Chuy is ineffective in getting out an alternative message based on what I can see.
mucifer
(23,572 posts)I got my Chuy sign in my window and I donated to the campaign. But, it's not looking good.
RufusTFirefly
(8,812 posts)WillTwain
(1,489 posts)Or Wisconsin, or Michigan, or Florida, or Ohio, or Illinois, or any city or state that stab themselves repeatedly - S&M relationships all of them.
ananda
(28,877 posts)I was really hoping Garcia would pull it out.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)when you first realize that everybody does not share your reality!
dariomax
(71 posts)name recognition will be an obstacle.