So I assume it will be binding.

Bad situation all around.

Reject it and live off their own budget (with potential exit from EU) = massive short term economic disaster

Accept it, borrow more and kick the can down the road = long term austerity

extension to paying back of the money as well having zero interest on for good or the creditors can just watch as they lose not just the interest payments but the balance of the money owed go down the drain.
On the other hand Greece has to make some changes itself to and it should be willing to commit to making what reforms it needs to so that within a 10 year period they will be able to run with a better balanced budget.
Now do I think that any of that will happen? Probably not.
The creditors will cry and bitch about the loss of money from the Greeks not having to pay interest on the money and the Greeks will probably cry and bitch that they might have to actually balance their budget with cuts in some services.

lets say they do that and the creditors say no.
so greece stops paying back anything. that means greece will be shut out of the credit markets for teh foreseeable future. that means they have to have a balanced budget starting immediately. they would also be booted from the euro
the euro would have to be replaced by the drachma which would be a pretty worthless currency leading to high inflation

until they made some kind of deal with their creditors in the future they would be unable to borrow any money in th the international markets

the creditor's need to be willing as well and stop with unreasonable demands themselves because there is no way in hell that the Greeks can make major cuts and reforms overnight, that's something that will take them probably 5 to 10 years to achieve.

And once the deadline is passed--and who can enforce it in the face of democracy?--then it's certainly not sacrosanct. Any action then looks capricious.

Part unsure about his political capital. If there's a referendum, well, then, whatever happens he and his can't be held responsible for it.

If it says, "Make a deal," then SYRIZA is off the hook. "We're good, but the populace isn't sufficiently enlightened to know their own interests."

If it says, "No deal," then SYRIZA is off the hook if things go bad. "We wanted to make a deal to save Greece, but the populace isn't sufficiently enlightened to know their own interests."

Of course, if it goes the way SYRIZA wants it to and it goes well, then, of course, the populace is all wise for supporting the best and brightest.

Greece needs to set up capital controls.

That's part of the problem.

Some time will pass, though.

They should also nationalize basic industry under workers' control.
For all this, they would have to go back to the drachma.

Back to the drach!

he's passing the buck.

Anyhow, the Grexit is inevitable at this point. So I guess he wants to be able to tell voters that they chose the Grexit.

That's funny, it sounds like democracy to me.

He is orchestrating Greece's exit from the European Union but does not want his fingerprints on it.

He made a lot of promises he can't keep, and now wants to avoid getting blamed for that as well as for being the man who got Greece expelled from the European Union.

Ducking tough decisions and hiding from accountability is the sign of a coward, not a leader.

Notice that this exercise in "democracy" is for him to do what the Troika have done--point a gun at the head of Greek voters by telling them they have two choices--accept the terms of the Trioika or get expelled from the European Union and see their current conditions get MUCH worse.

He failed at his negotiations with the Troika. And wants to avoid accountability.

This referendum is never going to happen.

Greece is on its way to leaving Europe politically and economically and joining Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus in the Eurasian Union.

Well, l so does the capitalist owning class, but you say "potato" and I say "potahto". It's all the same under the dictatorship of capital. At least Tsiperis is trying to bring the people into the equation. I've been a big critic of him and SYRIZA because they didn't go far enough in dismantling the useless façade of Greek capitalism and instituting a true workers' government in Greece, but I applaud this decision.

To make tough decisions in this matter, SYRIZA needs the support of the people of Greece. And that means the Greek people need to have a say.

This is his way of breaking off negotiations and saying that Greece is leaving Europe politically and economically.

The Grexit will have already happened by the time this referendum takes place.

There will be nothing for the people to vote on.

SYRIZA has already made its decision--they have chosen the Grexit.

This fake call for a referendum is about avoiding accountability, not giving the voters a choice.

The voters do not have and will not have a voice in this decision. The decision has already been made.

The die is cast. Greece is Eurasian, not European.

to try and enforce this draconian settlement on the Greek people and government without the consent of said people and government. IOW, if they decide to kick Greece out of the EU. And that's the path I'd take. I would prepare to exit the EU, but I would make the bankers make the move. I wouldn't volunteer to exit.

Is that what you're saying? That the bankers of the Trioka have already decided to kick Greece out of the EU? I hope so. I'm pretty sure that Europe will explode if that happens. The workers in Europe aren't skittish like they are here and there's already considerable unrest even in Germany. If the Trioka tries to overturn the will of the majority of Greeks, which should be shown by this referendum, then every "democracy" in Europe will see what capitalism is made of. And it's NOT about democracy.

The problem is that the Greeks are asking for bailouts, I.e. Someone else's money.

Most Germans want to kick the Greeks out. They don't like the idea of sending German money to Greece.

I think Greek has to bite the bullet and take the deal or they will become a third world nation overnight.

and accepting the disastrous human cost of decades of austerity for the Greek people. In addition to bowing down and kissing the ass of the European capitalists. They don't want to do any of those things, but in order to resist the Trioka's dismantling of Greek democracy, he has to have a majority of the Greek people on his side. THAT'S what the referendum is all about.

I personally call it democracy myself. Now they have to go the next step and expropriate the real property and the means of production of the useless Greek capitalist class and begin to run them for the people. And try to set up some sort of international trade organization with like-minded governments.

And for that the Greek people need to have the final say in the decision.

He has a mandate.. he's afraid to use it because he knows it will be a disaster.

He had a mandate for negotiating with the Trioka for the relief from austerity and privatization. To exit the EU, he'll need explicit backing by the Greek people. That's what the referendum is all about. It's time to quit playing by the dictatorial rules of capitalism and the bankers and make your own rules.

And I hope that the left of SYRIZA controls what's next which is the smashing of Greek capitalism and the institution of a workers' democracy

It will most likely just have more specifics about the austerity measures needed to secure the loan. Perhaps the Greeks have changed their mind since the elections, due to the impending financial chaos about to happen, and that's probably what Tsipras is hoping so he can get political cover to accepting the deal.

There won't be any offer for them to accept or reject by the time it happens.

The Grexit will be a done deal, signed, sealed and delivered, by the time they set a date for it.

The next referendum will be on joining the Eurasian Union, not remaining in the European Union.

SYRIZA has always had that as their end goal, being pro-Russia and anti-NATO/Europe.

out of Europe and into Eurasia.

Greece has traded Germany, France and Italy for Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus.

It will be awkward for them to leave NATO while Turkey is still a member, to say the least.

is whether in 15 years their currency is the drachma or the rouble.

He was never interested in a deal--Grexit was always his end game. He got elected with a mandate of not cutting a deal. His party is pro-Moscow and anti-NATO.

I think he is hoping the referendum will come out accepting the deal which gives him political cover.

There will be no referendum.

By the time it gets scheduled, Greece will be out of the Eurozone with Angela Merkel's heel print on its ass.

Can you post a link to that?

"Arriving at the meeting, the head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde, said she was willing to continue giving financial support to Greece - as long as the country played its part."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33297665

I think they are leaving opening for the Greeks to come to their senses... which I believe they will.

If he does, his government collapses.

Their banking system is already collapsing. Even if the ECB were inclined to throw more cash at them to keep it afloat, their own rules won't allow it since there would be a 0.0% chance of that money being repaid--it would just evaporate like water falling on red hot rocks.

This time next week Greece will find itself in insolvency-induced austerity.

it's amazing the banks have any Euros left--anyone who had bank accounts should have been liquidating them for hard Euro notes after SYRIZA was elected.

Europe.

It is time to get out of the EU.

Berlin should not have any say in your matters.

they'll be very comfortable staying in the EU.

With them keeping the pound, it makes it just a bunch of legalese, basically. Scotland will want to stay and it will set up the eventual dissolution of the UK.

Spain will vote in Podemos and back Greece. Italy may stay...Portugal is a toss up.

The real wild card is Marine Le Pen in France. She is currently leading opinion polls for the '17 French presidential election and she's about as anti-EU as they come. She currently advocates Frexit and a return to the franc.

Spain will be looking out for itself under Podemos or anyone else. Greece will have left the Euro and no one is going to lend them money.

Those talking about leaving the EU are generally rightwing parties, as you noted re: the UK.


The UK is a mess. The pound makes it easier for them to leave the euro, but throw in Scottish independence, who knows what will happen?

you have no idea if any money will be loaned to them.

Greece would be a valuable client state for them.

But Spain doesn't have spare cash lying around it can throw at Greece,

People are unaware of this fact, but Chinese are now importing more oil from Russia than from the Saudis. Russia has made a big play to cut the Saudis out of the Chinese market and are achieving it.
Any aid from Russia probably won't be in Rubles, it will be in Renminbi.
The Saudi oil price play has actually backfired and strengthened the Sino-Russian alliance.

are completely benevolent and expect nothing in return.

BRUSSELS: IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Saturday the lender would keep working on Greece's economy despite the government's decision to hold a referendum on an international bailout offer.

"The purpose of what we're doing is to actually restore stability of the economy in Greece, this is what we'll continue to do. We'll continue to work," Lagarde told reporters before joining a meeting of eurozone finance ministers.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/47843918.cms?utm_source=contentofinterest&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=cppst

on the bailout in a July 5 referendum.

That sounds like they are ready to deal.

If they say yes, then there's no point to the referendum.

If they need the referendum to say yes, then there's no deal until July 5. Which means no money on June 30, which means the entire process is moot.

and want the referendum for political cover.

He says they're fighting for a deal, but they ended negotiations.

Since they had to pull out of Syria with the upheaval there.

things due to the sanctions in place against it because of its invasion of the Ukraine.

...the problem is that Government spending requires Government revenue, and Greece has been notoriously incompetent at compelling it's population to pay their tax obligations.