First Cape Verde Storm of 2015 Possible This Week

Both the GFS and ECMWF operational models, our most reliable models for tropical cyclone track, bring 96L along a nearly due-west track over the next five days, with a gentle west-northwest turn by late in the week. The latest GFS ensemble includes some runs that move the system more rapidly toward the west-northwest. If the operational models are correct, 96L will remain south of 15°N though the upcoming week, keeping it over warm waters and well away from midlatitude systems that might interfere with its development. An upper-level trough will be sagging from the western Atlantic toward the Bahamas, potentially affecting 96L toward the weekend, but no large, deep troughs will be in place to steer the system dramatically northward for at least the next 5 or 6 days.



The intensity forecast for 96L is a bit more uncertain. Of the two most trusted models for intensity, the 1200 GMT Sunday run of the GFDL model brings 96L up to weak tropical-storm strength by midweek before a subsequent weakening. The 1200 GMT Sunday run of the HWRF model failed to develop 96L, but the 1800 GMT run brings 96L to midrange tropical storm strength by late Wednesday. Given the overall favorable conditions and the apparent healthiness of 96L’s structure, I’d rate the odds as being at least 50-50 that we will have a tropical storm in the central Atlantic before Friday.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3073

I was in San Juan, PR when Hurricane Irene hit back in 2011. We were told we "got lucky" since it was only Category 1 when she made landfall there, but it was still a huge mess. Hotel lobby flooded, no electricity for two days, flights cancelled, etc.

A couple days later, it had strengthened considerably and wrought havoc in the Bahamas. Dozens of casualties


EDIT: Btw, most airlines will allow you to modify or cancel your itinerary should the worst-case scenario materialize, so you should take comfort in that.

I rarely buy travel insurance, but I always do if planning a beach trip in August or September in NC, which has
more hurricane hits than anywhere else. I would do the same if planning a Caribbean trip in August or September
as well.

Damn, wish I had.