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ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:18 AM Aug 2015

How Google Could Rig the 2016 Election

Source: Politico

Google has the ability to drive millions of votes to a candidate with no one the wiser.

By ROBERT EPSTEIN August 19, 2015

Google’s search algorithm can easily shift the voting preferences of undecided voters by 20 percent or more—up to 80 percent in some demographic groups—with virtually no one knowing they are being manipulated, according to experiments I conducted recently with Ronald E. Robertson.

What we call in our research the Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME) turns out to be one of the largest behavioral effects ever discovered.

Our comprehensive new study, just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), includes the results of five experiments we conducted with more than 4,500 participants in two countries. Because SEME is virtually invisible as a form of social influence, because the effect is so large and because there are currently no specific regulations in the world that would prevent Google from using this technique, we believe SEME is a serious threavet to the democratic system of government.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/how-google-could-rig-the-2016-election-121548.html

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/how-google-could-rig-the-2016-election-121548.html



The author is a former chief editor of Psychology Today and has published this research in a prestigious science journal.
39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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How Google Could Rig the 2016 Election (Original Post) ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 OP
Bookmarking to read later and will come back and comment davidpdx Aug 2015 #1
google 'ballot order effect' ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #6
I just finished reading it and I also read the Wikipedia page about the author davidpdx Aug 2015 #9
Which is why California randomizes the ballot Retrograde Aug 2015 #25
You may have just suggested a way possible regulation of ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #33
While that may be a technical solution, or one a private sector company could adopt voluntarily, I 24601 Aug 2015 #36
Good points. Maybe the policy fix ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #37
K&R. nt OnyxCollie Aug 2015 #2
Great, one more thing to worry about yuiyoshida Aug 2015 #3
The deregulation of the 1990s allows companies jfern Aug 2015 #4
I'm starting to wonder if BC hurt us more than Raygun. Elmer S. E. Dump Aug 2015 #31
But hey - he felt our pain. He said so. LiberalElite Aug 2015 #39
This would require human micromanaging of search results. drm604 Aug 2015 #5
Since they sell top ranks ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #7
I think they sell ad space at the top of the page. That's not the same as top ranking. drm604 Aug 2015 #8
Ad or not, the top of a search results ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #12
They already found the effects of algorithms in the Republican figures in previous Joe Chi Minh Aug 2015 #13
Everything on GOOGLE is determined by algorithms, incl. rank-order results. No need for human leveymg Aug 2015 #20
Rigging is Real Lytex Aug 2015 #10
Rigging search results could ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #14
Google is very high on Gilead Sciences. Thor_MN Aug 2015 #17
In fairness, what other company markets a drug that actually CURES ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #27
I just know that it shows up a lot on Google and a Bushie is involved. Thor_MN Aug 2015 #30
+1 Scuba Aug 2015 #15
'Search Engine Optimization' ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #16
These phenomena always cause a rightward shift because the ideology of the right GoneFishin Aug 2015 #11
Pre 2014 election hopes later dashed... Martak Sarno Aug 2015 #18
Nate Silver explained how that might have happened at ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #19
Not everyone was so sanguine before that election. Numerous posts here about deflated D enthusiasm leveymg Aug 2015 #21
I was wondering why, when I Googled "who's the leader of the band that's made for you and me," mahatmakanejeeves Aug 2015 #22
Very interesting piece. Seems scientifically valid to me. SpankMe Aug 2015 #23
Unlike most journals, the journal where the Epstein ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #24
FaceBook may be even worse. FaceBook also uses algorithms that GreatGazoo Aug 2015 #26
Beat me to it. Facebook already does this to some extent. arcane1 Aug 2015 #28
Agreed. Facebook apparently experimented with subliminal ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #29
Here are the relevant quotes and citations from that link: ProgressiveEconomist Aug 2015 #32
So maybe this is why Greenwald has been protecting Google all this time... Blue_Tires Aug 2015 #34
we are all sheeple now. k and r bbgrunt Aug 2015 #35
Yo Big Bro Blue Owl Aug 2015 #38

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
6. google 'ballot order effect'
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:24 AM
Aug 2015

for info about a long-known related finding from political science.

Like the authors of the PNAS.org-linked study in the OP, authors of ballot-order studies looked at the effect of rank-order for the same menus of choices. There's a distinct advantage from being at or near the top of a list.

davidpdx

(22,000 posts)
9. I just finished reading it and I also read the Wikipedia page about the author
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 05:16 AM
Aug 2015

It is quite interesting and I can totally see the author's point. I have to wonder if this has been done yet in American political elections and if so at what level. It leaves a lot of unanswered questions.

Shared it on my Facebook page as well.

Retrograde

(10,152 posts)
25. Which is why California randomizes the ballot
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:49 PM
Aug 2015

They start with Assembly District 1: they pick a letter to be first, then list the candidates starting with that letter. In District 2, candidate #2 becomes candidate #1 and so on. The upshot is that often no two district list candidates for all elections in the same order.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
33. You may have just suggested a way possible regulation of
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:30 PM
Aug 2015

political campaign coverage in search engines could eliminate "SEME":

Outlaw selling AdWord space at the top of political news search results pages, and force randomization of ranks for results from a given set of search keywords for political news.

24601

(3,962 posts)
36. While that may be a technical solution, or one a private sector company could adopt voluntarily, I
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 03:08 PM
Aug 2015

am skeptical the Constitution delegates such power to federal or state governments.

First Amendment Freedom of Speech and Freedom of the Press would seem to apply. If you can't apply the same regulation on the NYT or WaPo, you wouldn't get away applying it to online providers either.

Google already tailors the content it thinks you want to see. I recommend viewing Eli Pariser's TED Talk on "Filter Bubbles".

http://www.ted.com/talks/eli_pariser_beware_online_filter_bubbles?language=en

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
37. Good points. Maybe the policy fix
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 06:38 PM
Aug 2015

has to include shortening campaign periods and licensing providers of comprehensive internet search engines.

yuiyoshida

(41,853 posts)
3. Great, one more thing to worry about
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:00 AM
Aug 2015

Corporations want to run our government, now, it seems one actually could. Forget Die bolt, now, Google could pick the next President, and it might be someone we might not want or like.

jfern

(5,204 posts)
4. The deregulation of the 1990s allows companies
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:05 AM
Aug 2015

to do lots of crazy things, like destroy the global economy. Thanks, Bill Clinton!

drm604

(16,230 posts)
5. This would require human micromanaging of search results.
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:11 AM
Aug 2015

It would have to be done on a constant ongoing basis. New information about candidates comes along on large numbers of sites every minute of every day. Constantly directing people to all negative or all positive stories about a given candidate would require constant almost moment to moment monitoring of large numbers of news sources and blogs and constant moment to moment tweaking of search results.

Doing this on a controlled search engine in an experimental setting is completely different from doing it on Google in the real world.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
7. Since they sell top ranks
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:32 AM
Aug 2015

for a wide variety of common searches, Google's PageRank algo must have extensive facilities for exactly the micromgt you're suggesting. But no one outside top a few top Google execs really knows.

drm604

(16,230 posts)
8. I think they sell ad space at the top of the page. That's not the same as top ranking.
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 02:39 AM
Aug 2015

Do you have a cite showing that they actually sell top ranking? If they do it can't be secret because how would they sell it if it's secret? If they do it then there's a page somewhere listing prices or where you can request pricing.

Even if they can do this, someone buying top ranking in results isn't the same as micromanaging news results. And if they could do that, it's not something that could be hidden from the many programmers and other employees at Google.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
12. Ad or not, the top of a search results
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 07:05 AM
Aug 2015

Page is for sale, at least partially. See https://support.google.com/adwords/answer/1722087?hl=en.

And it would be easy to drive traffic to biased sites by, for example, automatically adding '+inurl:foxnews' when certain keywords are used.

Joe Chi Minh

(15,229 posts)
13. They already found the effects of algorithms in the Republican figures in previous
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 07:15 AM
Aug 2015

elections, so while Google may be more impressive (assuming its algorithm wasn't used), it's hardly new.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
20. Everything on GOOGLE is determined by algorithms, incl. rank-order results. No need for human
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 10:33 AM
Aug 2015

intervention on a case-by-case basis. Just enter a new factor into the programming, and it will return the data any way they want.

Lytex

(14 posts)
10. Rigging is Real
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 06:48 AM
Aug 2015

I do a lot of political research, and it's a given that the links that come up are conservative. It's very hard to get past them. It does give the appearance that the public is more conservative than liberal, although we know that's untrue. So that illusion can sway public opinion. And as a mathematician in Kansas recently published, voting machines are rigged. Why in 2015, in one of the world's most technologically advanced nations, are our voting machines owned by companies from one political party--the GOP? Shouldn't they be owned by entities who are non-political? Why do touch screen machines have no paper trail? This is madness, and we're idiots for not demanding that our votes be secure and free from hacking. When the future of our country is determined by the vote, it should be sacrosanct.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
14. Rigging search results could
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 07:16 AM
Aug 2015

be more subtle than you are suggesting, and perhaps real but unintentional, don't you think?

 

Thor_MN

(11,843 posts)
17. Google is very high on Gilead Sciences.
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 08:33 AM
Aug 2015

Some Bush toadie, I think Rumsfeld, is a principle. Gilead is the first suggestions with gile, it comes up in science news frequently, for "news" that appears for no other similar company. It seems that Google either loves them, or they are paying for attention.

Stocks are very much like elections, with the exception that people spend much more time considering what to invest in than who to vote for. Considering the immediate, invisible influence that Google could have on the stock market and elections gives one pause.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
27. In fairness, what other company markets a drug that actually CURES
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:04 PM
Aug 2015

a widespread disease? See http://smp.businesswire.com/pages/us-food-and-drug-administration-approves-gileads-harvoni-ledipasvirsofosbuvir-first-once-daily .

Gilead must get attention both for its almost unique scientific accomplishment as well as for the outrageous prices it charges for Harvoni, almost guaranteed to force Hepatitis C patients to choose between not curing their disease and going into bankruptcy.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
16. 'Search Engine Optimization'
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 08:12 AM
Aug 2015

(SEO) is an art and a science. IMO it will be very interesting to see how Google responds to this article. SEO seems likely to become another front for political warfare, if it hasn't already become one.

GoneFishin

(5,217 posts)
11. These phenomena always cause a rightward shift because the ideology of the right
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 06:52 AM
Aug 2015

implicitly allows for tilting the playing field if it achieves an outcome which they believe is "for the greater good". It is the "I know what's best for you" attitude.

It is anti-democratic. Those of us who actually believe in democracy don't believe in it.

Martak Sarno

(77 posts)
18. Pre 2014 election hopes later dashed...
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 09:11 AM
Aug 2015

What had me wondering about the 2014 election was a number of months (in the early spring) all we heard about on the news and net was how the Republicans were in trouble. I had the impression that the Democrats would keep the Senate and possibly make a significant difference in the House.

Later, much closer to the election, Nate Silver came out with the surprise (to me at least) prediction that the Republicans would not only take the Senate and House but do it in a major way. I wonder if he knew about this bit of google BS in advance and uses it in his work.

Everyone I talked to in the early spring of 2014 felt rather good about Democratic chances and were quite surprised at the turn-around.

Just a thought.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
19. Nate Silver explained how that might have happened at
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 09:33 AM
Aug 2015
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/registered-voter-polls-will-usually-overrate-democrats/

“Polls of so-called likely voters are almost always more favorable to Republicans than those that survey the broader sample of all registered voters or all American adults. Likely voter polls also tend to provide more reliable predictions of election results, especially in midterm years. Whereas polls of all registered voters or all adults usually overstate the performance of Democratic candidates, polls of likely voters have had almost no long-term bias.”

Silver’s post gives tables of the pro-Democrat bias for Presidential and non-Presidential election years, and explains that wealthier, more Republican jurisdictions provide better access to the polls and that wealthier jurisdictions are more engaged in national politics.

leveymg

(36,418 posts)
21. Not everyone was so sanguine before that election. Numerous posts here about deflated D enthusiasm
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 10:42 AM
Aug 2015

The Party leadership simply chose to ignore the obvious - the mood of the progressive base determines GOTV, and that mood has never been more depressed and hostile than it was last year, and is now even worse with an inevitable Hillary still at the top of the ticket.

The only thing that might save us from having the GOP controlling all three bodies are the incredibly unattractive occupants of the Clown Car. I wouldn't count on that. We need another candidate - Hillary's negatives are so high that more people will turn out to vote against her - that isn't going to change by Fall 2016.

mahatmakanejeeves

(57,587 posts)
22. I was wondering why, when I Googled "who's the leader of the band that's made for you and me,"
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 10:51 AM
Aug 2015

Google sent me to Communist Party headquarters.

SpankMe

(2,965 posts)
23. Very interesting piece. Seems scientifically valid to me.
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:06 PM
Aug 2015

However, ranking is strongly influenced by the number of links to a particular source. If 8,000 web sites have a link to a NYT story about Trump, then a Google search result pointing to that NYT story will show up higher in rankings when keywords applicable to that article are searched. If only a few dozen web sites point to that NYT article, then it will rank a lot lower.

So, all Republicans have to do is make a whole lot of noise (which they're good at) and have all of their blogs and articles contain links to Trump and Bush stories on the Internet, and those stories will rank higher when applicable key words are searched. This phenomenon may counter the results of the presumed Goggle algorithm manipulations in favor of Democrats.

Also, I'm sure the Republican voter suppression laws will be more than adequate to counter this Google-ized ballot order bias being alleged.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
24. Unlike most journals, the journal where the Epstein
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:32 PM
Aug 2015

article appeared does not hide behind a pay-wall: http://www.pnas.org/content/112/33/E4512.full.pdf?with-ds=yes .

As you point out, Search Engine Optimization (SEO) is possible, and, if Republicans are better at it than Democrats--perhaps because they attract more knowledgable ex-Google programmers by paying them higher salaries--they can get better PageRanks for the websites that skew their way (such as foxnews.com).

GreatGazoo

(3,937 posts)
26. FaceBook may be even worse. FaceBook also uses algorithms that
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 12:56 PM
Aug 2015

decide what does and does not appear in your feed.

People make decisions based on the information they see -- filter the information = change the decision.

and now Emily Latella wants to say something....

What's all this I hear about Al Gore Rhythms ? Al Gore is not a drummer! He dances like Elaine on Seinfeld....never mind.

 

arcane1

(38,613 posts)
28. Beat me to it. Facebook already does this to some extent.
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:11 PM
Aug 2015

We would never know.

Wait, "algorithm" is one of them A-rab words, isn't it? It's a Muslin plot!!!

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
29. Agreed. Facebook apparently experimented with subliminal
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:11 PM
Aug 2015

flashing of "VOTE!" ads onto certain users' device screens, and reported inducing hundreds of thousands of votes that otherwise would not have been cast. See the source of the OP at http://www.pnas.org/content/112/33/E4512.full.pdf?with-ds=yes , and in particular page E4513 and refence 44.

ProgressiveEconomist

(5,818 posts)
32. Here are the relevant quotes and citations from that link:
Thu Aug 20, 2015, 01:21 PM
Aug 2015

"Massive experiments conducted recently by social media giant Facebook have already introduced other unprecedented types of influence made possible by
the Internet. Notably, an experiment reported recently suggested that flashing “VOTE” ads to 61 million Facebook users caused more than 340,000 people to vote that day who otherwise would not have done so (44).

Zittrain has pointed out that if Facebook executives chose to prompt only those people who favored a particular candidate or party, they could easily flip an election in favor of that candidate, performing a kind of 'digital gerrymandering' (45)."

44. Bond RM, et al. (2012) A 61-million-person experiment in social influence and political mobilization. Nature 489(7415):295–298.

45. Zittrain J (2014) Engineering an election. Digital gerrymandering poses a threat to democracy. Harvard Law Review Forum 127(8):335–341.

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