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bananas

(27,509 posts)
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 07:04 PM Aug 2015

Report: In A Decade (Or Sooner), Pakistan Could Be No. 3 Nuclear Power

Source: NPR

Pakistan could have 350 nuclear warheads sometime in the next decade, becoming the world's No. 3 nuclear power by outpacing rival India and several other nations in bomb-making, according to a new report issued by two think tanks.

The report, A Normal Nuclear Pakistan, written by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center, says: "in the next five to 10 years Pakistan could have a nuclear arsenal not only twice the size of India's but also larger than those of the United Kingdom, China, and France, giving it the third-largest arsenal behind the United States and Russia."

In 2013, estimates of the size of Pakistan's current nuclear arsenal ranged from about 90 to 120 warheads. The report says that Islamabad could step up production to about 20 nuclear warheads a year. "Many observers have concluded that Pakistan's rate of fissile material production (and assumed construction of nuclear weapons) gives it the fastest-growing nuclear weapons stockpile," the report says.

"The growth path of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, enabled by existing infrastructure, goes well beyond the assurances of credible minimal deterrence provided by Pakistani officials and analysts after testing nuclear devices," the it adds.

<snip>

Read more: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2015/08/27/435189782/report-in-a-decade-or-sooner-pakistan-could-be-no-3-nuclear-power

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Report: In A Decade (Or Sooner), Pakistan Could Be No. 3 Nuclear Power (Original Post) bananas Aug 2015 OP
With all the fear mongering and saber rattling about Iran... iandhr Aug 2015 #1
I am guessing it's because Pakistan is Syzygy321 Aug 2015 #12
Pakistan has funded terror as well. iandhr Aug 2015 #14
Yes, it's a huge damn mess and large chunks of it Syzygy321 Aug 2015 #16
That is also a good point iandhr Aug 2015 #19
Why Does Such an Extremely Impoverished Country Waste Resources... Herman4747 Aug 2015 #2
They didn't spend a dime - Poppy Bush and his cronies were funding AQKhan through BCCI. blm Aug 2015 #4
India iandhr Aug 2015 #6
Why Does Such an Extremely Wealthy Country Waste Resources... IronLionZion Aug 2015 #9
"if India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our bananas Aug 2015 #10
And India wanted the bomb because the PRC got a bomb, iandhr Aug 2015 #15
Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan bananas Aug 2015 #11
Understanding Pakistan RealistComments Aug 2015 #13
What is Most Striking about your Comment: Herman4747 Aug 2015 #17
The Head of the Pakistani Government RealistComments Aug 2015 #20
Yes, Bill Clinton Was a Major Player Preventing Disaster... Herman4747 Aug 2015 #21
would come at a huge economic cost bananas Aug 2015 #3
They can't afford it (in our terms,) elleng Aug 2015 #7
Lets face facts... Anansi1171 Aug 2015 #5
Profoundly unlikely Demeter Aug 2015 #8
Thank God they are allies of ours. Elmer S. E. Dump Aug 2015 #18

iandhr

(6,852 posts)
1. With all the fear mongering and saber rattling about Iran...
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 07:08 PM
Aug 2015

... we are ignoring Pakistan which is the much bigger nuclear threat.

 

Syzygy321

(583 posts)
12. I am guessing it's because Pakistan is
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:30 AM
Aug 2015

a quasi-ally in its half-assed way,

whereas Iran has committed multiple crazed acts against random westerners, in addition to frequently torturing or gunning down its own people in the streets when they get troublesome.

Pakistan at least keeps up a pretense of being a democracy.

That's my best guess.

iandhr

(6,852 posts)
14. Pakistan has funded terror as well.
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 09:12 AM
Aug 2015

ISI trained Lashkar-e-Taiba the group responsible for the Mumbai attacks.

 

Syzygy321

(583 posts)
16. Yes, it's a huge damn mess and large chunks of it
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 09:19 AM
Aug 2015

are in thrall to KSA. Which is presumably using it as a convenient nuclear laboratory.
(Of course kSA is also our quasi-ally, so no problem there... And they never ever ever fund terrorism.)

blm

(113,063 posts)
4. They didn't spend a dime - Poppy Bush and his cronies were funding AQKhan through BCCI.
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 07:22 PM
Aug 2015

Nothing has changed. The same power brokers who funded the rise of global terrorism are still calling much of the shots.

iandhr

(6,852 posts)
6. India
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 07:49 PM
Aug 2015

India's conventional military forces are superior to Pakistan's. In a conventional war with out nukes India would probably win easily.

IronLionZion

(45,447 posts)
9. Why Does Such an Extremely Wealthy Country Waste Resources...
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 12:21 AM
Aug 2015

on America's completely insane defense budget?

Some countries might look at America's return on that unprecedented investment and want some. Scholars have studied the effects of 2 world wars and the cold war on America's economy. Make no mistake, some people look at war and see dollar signs and start salivating.

bananas

(27,509 posts)
10. "if India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 03:58 AM
Aug 2015
http://www.nti.org/country-profiles/pakistan/nuclear/

President Z.A. Bhutto forcefully advocated the nuclear option and famously said in 1965 that "if India builds the bomb, we will eat grass or leaves, even go hungry, but we will get one of our own."

bananas

(27,509 posts)
11. Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 04:00 AM
Aug 2015
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24823846

Saudi nuclear weapons 'on order' from Pakistan

Mark Urban
Diplomatic and defence editor, BBC Newsnight
6 November 2013

Saudi Arabia has invested in Pakistani nuclear weapons projects, and believes it could obtain atomic bombs at will, a variety of sources have told BBC Newsnight.

While the kingdom's quest has often been set in the context of countering Iran's atomic programme, it is now possible that the Saudis might be able to deploy such devices more quickly than the Islamic republic.

Earlier this year, a senior Nato decision maker told me that he had seen intelligence reporting that nuclear weapons made in Pakistan on behalf of Saudi Arabia are now sitting ready for delivery.

Last month Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence, told a conference in Sweden that if Iran got the bomb, "the Saudis will not wait one month. They already paid for the bomb, they will go to Pakistan and bring what they need to bring."

<snip>

 

RealistComments

(20 posts)
13. Understanding Pakistan
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 07:35 AM
Aug 2015

To understand what drives Pakistan's policy choices you have to follow the money. Who benefits from the endless India-Pakistan war? Consider the situation inside Pakistan. The Pakistani Army dominates Pakistan, both politically and economically. Army owned enterprises include bakeries, banking, sugar mills, fertilizer factories etc. You can find details at GlobalSecurity (dot) org. The Army officers live in the luxurious houses in fashionable neighborhoods, waited on hand and foot by a multitude of servants.

The Pakistani Army officers are like medieval feudals who lord it over the Pakistani citizens. This of course is to the detriment of the citizens. Now, if Pakistan did not have an external enemy its Army could not justify its power within Pakistan. Hence the Army needs to keep the war with India going. Without India the Pakistani Army would have to answer the question its citizens would inevitably ask "Why do you have all these economic benefits and power, what are you doing for us?" The only answer the Pakistani Army can provide is "our enemy India", so it is essential for the Pakistani Army that India and Pakistan remain enemies.

When Nawaz Sharif (a businessman) came to power in 1997 his attitude was "the Kashmir issue is not of any benefit to Pakistanis, let's instead concentrate on economic development, and for that we need to have better relations with India". Sharif met with Vajpayee in 1999 and signed the Lahore Declaration. For a brief moment it seemed that India and Pakistan could have better relations. However the Pakistani Army responded by starting the Kargil war, and then overthrowing Sharif in a coup. While it secured its own position within Pakistan by doing so, it also meant that the Pakistani citizens went back to the life of serfs under their Army officer lords.

The reason this situation continues is that the average Pakistanis do not realize that the enmity with India is costly for them, instead they continue to passionately believe that India is hostile to Pakistan and the cause of their problems. The truth is that Indians would be ecstatic if there was no enmity, or even if the two countries simply ignored each other. The Kashmir issue is irrelevant, why should India give away Kashmir to Pakistan when Kashmiris have full democratic rights in India whereas in Pakistan they would be serfs of the Pakistani Army officers? Also, if India was to give Kashmir to Pakistan tomorrow the Pakistani Army would quickly come up with some issue to keep the hostility with India going. Then a weakened India (minus Kashmir) would have to face a still belligerent Pakistan. There will be no peace as long as the Pakistani citizens do not realize that India is the only issue the Pakistani Army has for maintaining the position of its officers as the ruling feudal lords of Pakistan.

 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
17. What is Most Striking about your Comment:
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 09:23 AM
Aug 2015

"...the Pakistani Army responded by starting the Kargil war..."
That is EXACTLY RIGHT. And what it meant (and hopefully no longer means) is that the head of the Pakistani government had no control over starting a war, and no control over the military.

 

RealistComments

(20 posts)
20. The Head of the Pakistani Government
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 01:09 PM
Aug 2015

was Nawaz Sharif. About 6 months after the Kargil war he was deposed in a coup by the Pakistani Army and spent a long time in a jail cell.

So you are right when you say "the head of the Pakistani government had no control over starting a war, and no control over the military".

The Pakistani Army loves the Pakistani nukes. It gives them a relevance they cannot otherwise acquire through their inept conventional capabilities.

 

Herman4747

(1,825 posts)
21. Yes, Bill Clinton Was a Major Player Preventing Disaster...
Fri Aug 28, 2015, 03:55 PM
Aug 2015

...as he describes it here:



Extremely Scary Stuff.

bananas

(27,509 posts)
3. would come at a huge economic cost
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 07:16 PM
Aug 2015
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistans-nuclear-arsenal-could-be-worlds-3rd-largest-in-a-decade-report/articleshow/48701544.cms

Pakistan's nuclear arsenal could be world's 3rd-largest in a decade: Report
By PTI | 27 Aug, 2015, 10.12PM IST

<snip>

Maintaining such a large nuclear arsenal would come at a huge economic cost, the report said, adding that by staying on the present course, Pakistan's civilian and military leaders will face very hard budgetary decisions going forward.

"Pakistan's nuclear arsenal requires large mortgage payments within a baseline security budget ($7 billion) that officially consumes 2.8 per cent of Pakistan's GDP, but, is assuredly much higher," the report said.

<snip>

"With a growing population, major social and education requirements, severe energy shortfalls and rising needs, as well as requirements to bolster law enforcement and a judiciary that can stabilise Pakistan's internal security, Islamabad can ill-afford nuclear mortgage payments that will balloon in the decades ahead," the report said.

<snip>

 

Demeter

(85,373 posts)
8. Profoundly unlikely
Thu Aug 27, 2015, 11:06 PM
Aug 2015

Much more likely that Pakistan will be a molten slab of radioactivity through failed safety.

It's not as if anyone wants them armed with nukes, and it's not like they don't have better things to do with their time and money.

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