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George II

(67,782 posts)
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:43 PM Feb 2016

Clinton hangs on in revised Iowa caucus results

Source: The Hill

February 07, 2016, 01:36 pm

The Iowa Democratic Party on Sunday updated the results of the Iowa caucuses after discovering discrepancies in the tallies at five precincts, but the final outcome remains unchanged.

Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Clinton still places first in the caucuses with 700.47 state delegate equivalents, or 49.84 percent, the party said in a statement.

Primary rival Bernie Sanders comes in second with 696.92 state delegate equivalents, or 49.59 percent.

The total net change gives Sanders an additional 0.1053 state delegate equivalents and strips Clinton of 0.122 state delegate equivalents.

___________________________________________

With 1397.39 state delegates equivalents, the costly and time-consuming recount resulted in an error of 0.1053 state delegates.

That's an error of .0075%.

Read more: http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/bernie-sanders-iowa-results-gain-error-recount-hillary-clinton

40 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Clinton hangs on in revised Iowa caucus results (Original Post) George II Feb 2016 OP
I wish they had something better than coins to work with for a narrative Blue_Adept Feb 2016 #1
This doesn't mean all contested results are finished and resolved. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #2
There's more to come? Baitball Blogger Feb 2016 #6
No Democratic primary recount or review will be a waste rocktivity Feb 2016 #8
It looks like Bernie won a Delegate over this. trillion Feb 2016 #36
They now have 22 each? rocktivity Feb 2016 #40
Yes, it does mean that the contested results have all been resolved. pnwmom Feb 2016 #16
Your new link does show that. My first post stands. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #20
"Iowa Democratic Caucus Results Updated After IDP Completes Review" pnwmom Feb 2016 #22
Do you not realize that my post preceded yours? When I posted, I had no idea of your link JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #23
Of course you had an "idea" of my link. You said in your post #20 that my #16 link pnwmom Feb 2016 #24
"Your new link does show that" -- Seems pretty clear I was agreeing with you. JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #25
I admit I misread "does" as "doesn't" because of your following sentence pnwmom Feb 2016 #26
It means that at the time I posted it was accurate. I.e. I don't need to retract it, but the JonLeibowitz Feb 2016 #27
With DWS in charge, it had to be done rocktivity Feb 2016 #3
"Costly and time-consuming" ? Even if this were true (which I doubt) wouldn't accurate and fair FailureToCommunicate Feb 2016 #4
Can someone show me a picture Kelvin Mace Feb 2016 #5
Right on!!!! Beacool Feb 2016 #7
A wash rocktivity Feb 2016 #10
No, it isn't. Beacool Feb 2016 #12
It's good to have a woman but lets be clear, not every woman is good to have. trillion Feb 2016 #38
And, if it come between her and a Republican, I will vote for her. trillion Feb 2016 #39
I think we can give them that. It is history becuase she is the first woman to win an Iowa Caucus. trillion Feb 2016 #37
... William769 Feb 2016 #9
The fact that changing the disposition of just 5 or 6 delegates... Old Crow Feb 2016 #11
The costly recount that hasn't actually happened? jeff47 Feb 2016 #13
A thorough recount would involve counting the real raw votes -- the ballots -- pnwmom Feb 2016 #15
And since the party stupidly did not put in a mechanism for raw votes, tallies is the best we have. jeff47 Feb 2016 #17
The Sanders campaign was involved in the checking that was just completed. pnwmom Feb 2016 #18
So yes, we are now supposed to oppose transparency jeff47 Feb 2016 #19
People continue to ignore the much bigger problem: unfairness is built into the system. pnwmom Feb 2016 #14
+1. Kansas has a caucus now, too. I caucused for the first time in 2008. It was an exhausting, time- tblue37 Feb 2016 #30
I was so annoyed when Colorado didn't switch back to primaries. joshcryer Feb 2016 #32
This message was self-deleted by its author jeff47 Feb 2016 #21
Where are the vote totals? This is not transparency; this is a confession of error plus a "trust me" Vote2016 Feb 2016 #28
New Hampshire voters make up their minds at the last minute Gothmog Feb 2016 #29
so they apparently changed the name of the article to spin it in her favor? New Earth Feb 2016 #31
So, delegate wise, they are now equal? trillion Feb 2016 #35
Hillary Won Iowa~History Made! Mahalo George! Cha Feb 2016 #33
Congrats. trillion Feb 2016 #34

Blue_Adept

(6,399 posts)
1. I wish they had something better than coins to work with for a narrative
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:47 PM
Feb 2016

I really miss the hanging chads.

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
2. This doesn't mean all contested results are finished and resolved.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:47 PM
Feb 2016

Furthermore, .the number is not .0075% but is actually approximately 2.97%: .1053/(700.47-696.92).

You could even argue, though I will not, that the error was 6.4%: (.1053 + .122)/(700.47-696.92)

Is it your implication by your words "the costly and time-consuming recount" that this recount (which has not been confirmed as completed) was a waste?

rocktivity

(44,576 posts)
8. No Democratic primary recount or review will be a waste
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:05 PM
Feb 2016

as long as it is being ultimately overseen by someone who has a vested interest in Hillary winning.




rocktivity


 

trillion

(1,859 posts)
36. It looks like Bernie won a Delegate over this.
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:11 AM
Feb 2016

They are now equal.

Congrats Bernie! You won in your recount. She lost a delegate and you picked one up.

?resize=620%2C414

rocktivity

(44,576 posts)
40. They now have 22 each?
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 07:17 PM
Feb 2016

With such a slim margin of victory, surely splitting everything down the middle is fairer than a coin toss.


rocktivity

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
16. Yes, it does mean that the contested results have all been resolved.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:37 PM
Feb 2016
http://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-caucus-results-updated-after-idp-completes-review/

Des Moines—Over the past week, to ensure the accuracy of our results the Iowa Democratic Party worked with the Sanders campaign, the Clinton campaign and local party leadership to review results from 14 precinct caucuses.


These follow-up reviews were in addition to the work we did on caucus night, where we worked with the campaign representatives in our tabulation room and our precinct and county chairs to resolve any issues that arose from the 1,681 Democratic precincts.

We reviewed the 14 precincts on a case-by-case basis, and in each instance reached out to our precinct and county chairs on the ground for a full accounting of the results. Nine of the 14 precincts were confirmed to be correct as reported on caucus night, while five instances of reporting errors were found:

SNIP

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
22. "Iowa Democratic Caucus Results Updated After IDP Completes Review"
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:53 PM
Feb 2016

Did you ignore the title or are you disputing the Party's statement that they've completed the review?

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
23. Do you not realize that my post preceded yours? When I posted, I had no idea of your link
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:01 PM
Feb 2016

I don't dispute the title or the statement. I only noted that at the time I posted, what I said was correct. This is not complicated.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
24. Of course you had an "idea" of my link. You said in your post #20 that my #16 link
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:08 PM
Feb 2016

didn't say what I said it did. And you were incorrect, because you must have missed the title.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
26. I admit I misread "does" as "doesn't" because of your following sentence
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:13 PM
Feb 2016

that your post "still stands."

What did you mean by that?

JonLeibowitz

(6,282 posts)
27. It means that at the time I posted it was accurate. I.e. I don't need to retract it, but the
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:16 PM
Feb 2016

following commentary would serve as clarifications for the historical record.

rocktivity

(44,576 posts)
3. With DWS in charge, it had to be done
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:52 PM
Feb 2016

Wasserman Schutlz must be above reproach -- we need to have total confidence in the outcomes if only because she failed in her effort to get Hillary elected previously. And there was a discrepancy, so there!


rocktivity

FailureToCommunicate

(14,014 posts)
4. "Costly and time-consuming" ? Even if this were true (which I doubt) wouldn't accurate and fair
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 04:55 PM
Feb 2016

results be what anyone would want? The Des Moines Register sure thought so.

Beacool

(30,250 posts)
12. No, it isn't.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:16 PM
Feb 2016

I take pride in women breaking down doors for others, particularly if the woman is a Democrat. I honor my mother's generation who had to fight for job and pay equality. It's a shame that other women take so much for granted. A bit more classy would have been to say "congratulations" and move on, or simply refrain from commenting at all.



 

trillion

(1,859 posts)
38. It's good to have a woman but lets be clear, not every woman is good to have.
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:36 AM
Feb 2016

IE. I didn't want Sarah Palin to be vice president after she announced she was going to over-turn Roe vs. Wade when she announced she was running.

Correction Hillarys donors from 1999 to 2016:

Citigroup Inc $824,402 $816,402 $8,000
Goldman Sachs $760,740 $750,740 $10,000
DLA Piper $700,530 $673,530 $27,000
JPMorgan Chase & Co $696,456 $693,456 $3,000
Morgan Stanley $636,564 $631,564 $5,000
EMILY's List $609,684 $605,764 $3,920
Time Warner $501,831 $476,831 $25,000
Skadden, Arps et al $469,290 $464,790 $4,500
University of California $417,327 $417,327 $0
Sullivan & Cromwell $369,150 $369,150 $0
Akin, Gump et al $364,478 $360,978 $3,500
Lehman Brothers $362,853 $359,853 $3,000
21st Century Fox $340,936 $340,936 $0
Cablevision Systems $336,613 $307,225 $29,388
Kirkland & Ellis $329,141 $312,141 $17,000
National Amusements Inc $328,312 $325,312 $3,000
Squire Patton Boggs $328,306 $322,868 $5,438
Greenberg Traurig LLP $327,890 $319,790 $8,100
Corning Inc $322,450 $304,450 $18,000
Credit Suisse Group $318,120 $308,120 $10,000
This is NOT definitive because she has a lot of Super Pacs.

She has a long history with Goldman Sachs who just got fined 5 billion for the Federal Mortgage crisis last week.

She is not likely to regulate anyone.

Let's just be clear, that, that is the first woman who just won Iowa (only it's far worse because that was back when she was only running for Senator. ) Congratulations to her for being a woman.

I am a woman, btw. The only thing I see good about this is the glass ceiling there is broken.

 

trillion

(1,859 posts)
37. I think we can give them that. It is history becuase she is the first woman to win an Iowa Caucus.
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 03:14 AM
Feb 2016


That said. Be happy. Bernie picked up a delegate and Clinton lost one. They are even on Delegates now.

Old Crow

(2,212 posts)
11. The fact that changing the disposition of just 5 or 6 delegates...
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:10 PM
Feb 2016

... reduced Clinton's win from 0.30% to 0.25% shows you just how tenuous these results are.

Several precincts had as many as 30 votes thrown in question due to sloppy procedures (people coming and going mid-vote, required recounts not breing taken, precincts understaffed, etc.). I don't think we'll ever know for sure who won. The caucus was so chaotic that the outcomes we've seen (the original report and the revised report) fall within the procedure's margin of error.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
13. The costly recount that hasn't actually happened?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:24 PM
Feb 2016

There hasn't been a recount. The party has corrected some of the problems that have been brought to their attention.

That's neither a recount, nor costly to the party.

You know what would be really cheap? Releasing the raw numbers. Just post 'em on the party web site, and plenty of people and media will do the recount for them. For free.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
15. A thorough recount would involve counting the real raw votes -- the ballots --
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:34 PM
Feb 2016

Not the tallies. And there are no ballots to be counted; and the humans that were being head-counted have left the building.

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
17. And since the party stupidly did not put in a mechanism for raw votes, tallies is the best we have.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:39 PM
Feb 2016

So, why hide the tallies? Are we now against transparency in elections?

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
18. The Sanders campaign was involved in the checking that was just completed.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:42 PM
Feb 2016

The party has been transparent with all three campaigns.


http://iowademocrats.org/iowa-democratic-caucus-results-updated-after-idp-completes-review/


Des Moines—Over the past week, to ensure the accuracy of our results the Iowa Democratic Party worked with the Sanders campaign, the Clinton campaign and local party leadership to review results from 14 precinct caucuses.


These follow-up reviews were in addition to the work we did on caucus night, where we worked with the campaign representatives in our tabulation room and our precinct and county chairs to resolve any issues that arose from the 1,681 Democratic precincts.

We reviewed the 14 precincts on a case-by-case basis, and in each instance reached out to our precinct and county chairs on the ground for a full accounting of the results. Nine of the 14 precincts were confirmed to be correct as reported on caucus night, while five instances of reporting errors were found:

SNIP

jeff47

(26,549 posts)
19. So yes, we are now supposed to oppose transparency
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:46 PM
Feb 2016
The party has been transparent with all three campaigns.

Uh, no. The discrepancies were found by the delegate not matching what the Sanders campaign captains wrote down on election day.

The party has not released the tallies to anyone. Including the campaigns.

Btw, 14 of 1,681 is not a recount.

pnwmom

(108,980 posts)
14. People continue to ignore the much bigger problem: unfairness is built into the system.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 05:32 PM
Feb 2016

And has a much bigger effect than these tiny differences.

They allocate delegates to each precinct based on the number of voters who turned up in the two previous elections -- not the current election.

Then they have formulas to allocate whole delegates, rather than giving proportional representation. This means in a precinct with two delegates, a candidate with 25% of the vote and another with 75% will each get ONE delegate. In other words, a delegate in the same precinct could represent 3 times as many people as another. And the disparities could even be greater across precincts.

Then there is all the other unfairness, because people can't get absentee ballots.

Every state should switch to primaries. Too late this season, though. We're stuck with some caucuses. Nevada will be the next.

tblue37

(65,403 posts)
30. +1. Kansas has a caucus now, too. I caucused for the first time in 2008. It was an exhausting, time-
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 07:06 PM
Feb 2016

consuming process. We stood in LOOOOONG lines in freezing rain just to get inside the fairgrounds building, because Obama enthusiasm had brought in so many students in our college town (Lawrence, KS--home of KU's Jayhawks). Then by the time we got out, we were in blizzard conditions and barely made it home. Normally I could get home from the fairgrounds in about 5-7 minutes, but that time it took about 50 minutes. I didn't get home until 2:00 a.m.

That is the sort of crap that discourages people from being actively involved in politics at the state and lcal level. Unfortunately, those who enjoy wielding power in small kingdoms prefer less involvement, because that protects their hold on power.

I plan to caucus March 1 this year (for Bernie), but I honestly dread the loss of many hours that I need for grading papers and having conferences with my students.

We actually used to have a primary rather than a caucus here.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
32. I was so annoyed when Colorado didn't switch back to primaries.
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 11:53 PM
Feb 2016

There were efforts but the costs were too high so it got shot down. Caucuses are definitely cheaper, since it is pen and paper, no need to print out ballots (and since Colorado has mail in, no need to mail them out).

Response to George II (Original post)

 

Vote2016

(1,198 posts)
28. Where are the vote totals? This is not transparency; this is a confession of error plus a "trust me"
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 06:19 PM
Feb 2016

New Earth

(9,745 posts)
31. so they apparently changed the name of the article to spin it in her favor?
Sun Feb 7, 2016, 10:28 PM
Feb 2016

This is how this news link appeared on my facebook:

[IMG][/IMG]

It was only minutes before this post was made in LBN....

Cha

(297,290 posts)
33. Hillary Won Iowa~History Made! Mahalo George!
Mon Feb 8, 2016, 02:30 AM
Feb 2016

Hillary Clinton
✔ ?@HillaryClinton
History: made. #IowaCaucus
4:38 AM - 2 Feb 2016
1,856 1,856 Retweets 4,139 4,139 likes
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