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MowCowWhoHow III

(2,103 posts)
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:43 AM Feb 2016

Brexit against Scotland's wishes would 'almost certainly' trigger independence referendum

Source: The Independent

A vote to leave the European Union against Scotland's wishes would "almost certainly" trigger another independence referendum, Nicola Sturgeon has warned.

The Scottish First Minister and SNP leader said if England voted to leave the EU while Scotland voted to remain there would be an "inescapable" shift in public opinion towards independence to guarantee the country’s continued EU membership.

"I think that would be the demand of people in Scotland,” she told the BBC.

"Let me say very clearly that I don't want this scenario to arise. I hope the UK as a whole votes to stay in the EU for a whole variety of different reasons.

Read more: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-referendum-brexit-scottish-independence-vote-nicola-sturgeon-a6887366.html

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Brexit against Scotland's wishes would 'almost certainly' trigger independence referendum (Original Post) MowCowWhoHow III Feb 2016 OP
Message auto-removed Name removed Feb 2016 #1
More independent than being the 51st state. Bad Dog Feb 2016 #5
So Sturgeon is a Scottish Separatist Angel Martin Feb 2016 #2
No, she's opposed to 'brexit' because she thinks the EU is a good institution muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #3
No, she is opposed to Brexit because most Scots want to stay in the EU LeftishBrit Feb 2016 #26
And she's been saying this for a very long time. Bad Dog Feb 2016 #4
She "fears for employment rights and social protections under the Tories if the UK leaves the EU." pampango Feb 2016 #6
Don't go calling the Scots "liberals." Bad Dog Feb 2016 #10
It would be one step upwards for Scotland in the political hierarchy: DetlefK Feb 2016 #7
Only old isolationist Brits want to leave the EU Helen Borg Feb 2016 #8
I thought you said this referendum was BS and non binding. Bad Dog Feb 2016 #11
Yup. Old folks don't know that... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #12
If the government didn't follow the result, they'd be chucked out muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #14
If big money does not want to exit... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #15
Yes, that's the kind of highly misleading thing to say muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #16
Of course he won't say it... Helen Borg Feb 2016 #18
He's said it "would not just be wrong; it’d be undemocratic" muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #19
"undemocratic" does not mean illegal. Helen Borg Feb 2016 #21
But it's incredibly misleading to suggest that they would muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #22
But it is non-binding. Period. Helen Borg Feb 2016 #23
"IF" - Since the Labour Party and the unions oppose Brexit and RW Tories support it, pampango Feb 2016 #17
Even big money can only go so far LeftishBrit Feb 2016 #25
'leave' becomes the more popular choice somewhere in the 40s muriel_volestrangler Feb 2016 #13
Unfortunately there are plenty of isolationist Brits under 60 LeftishBrit Feb 2016 #27
The SNP is ALWAYS looking for another reason to do that bruising battle again. Adrahil Feb 2016 #9
So are the so-called Eurosceptics (really Europhobes) LeftishBrit Feb 2016 #24
"to guarantee the country’s continued EU membership." KamaAina Feb 2016 #20
A huge thread among foul mouthed knitters in the UK Warpy Feb 2016 #28

Response to MowCowWhoHow III (Original post)

muriel_volestrangler

(101,321 posts)
3. No, she's opposed to 'brexit' because she thinks the EU is a good institution
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:44 AM
Feb 2016

and that is the feeling of the average Scot, too.

eg

https://gallery.mailchimp.com/fbcf81e4dd2761d48aba0b6da/files/Voting_15thFeb16_pv.pdf
Britain: remain 43%, leave 39%; Scotland: remain 54%, leave 35%

or

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/political-monitor-feb-2016-tables.pdf
Britain: remain 51%, leave 36%; Scotland: remain 72%, leave 19%

The SNP were always clear they wanted an independent Scotland inside the EU. A lot of the argument over Scottish independence was whether Scotland would have to re-apply to join the EU, or if it could continue membership from the British one.

LeftishBrit

(41,208 posts)
26. No, she is opposed to Brexit because most Scots want to stay in the EU
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:19 PM
Feb 2016

Whether as part of the UK, or as an independent state.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
6. She "fears for employment rights and social protections under the Tories if the UK leaves the EU."
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 06:35 AM
Feb 2016

And well she should. That is the same reason that the Labour Party and the Trades Union Congress oppose Brexit.

"David Cameron seems to want an EU where the social and employment protections that it brings are watered down," she said.

"For me these are parts of the reasons for being in the EU, and one of the reasons why it would worry me greatly if the UK was to come out of the EU, as we would then have David Cameron's majority Conservative government unfettered when it came to employment rights or social protections."

Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Willie Rennie said: ... "The EU referendum campaign must not be used as a proxy campaign for independence. The EU debate deserves a laser-like focus, just like the independence debate. With economic, social and security benefits, the European Union is good for the UK."

Those damn liberals in Scotland. Don't they understand that the Cameron's Conservatives (not to mention UKIP) just want protect the UK's sovereignty for the good of the British people? The Tories are certainly not interested in cutting labor rights and social protections that are guaranteed by the EU, are they?

Bad Dog

(2,025 posts)
10. Don't go calling the Scots "liberals."
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 10:48 AM
Feb 2016

They won't that you for it. The Liberals, along with Labour and the Tories were wiped out in the last General election. And after Clegg's snide alliance with the Tories, and breaking of a "solemn promise" on tuition fees, "Liberal" is very much a dirty word over here, (not just in Scotland.)

The total impact of the Tory/Liberal tax, welfare and public spending changes has hit the poorest 10% in society disproportionately hard - and women have been affected even more badly than men.

Nicola Sturgeon

DetlefK

(16,423 posts)
7. It would be one step upwards for Scotland in the political hierarchy:
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:02 AM
Feb 2016

Scotland is part of the UK. The UK is part of the EU.

If Great Britain leaves, Scotland could play on the same level as other EU-members.

Helen Borg

(3,963 posts)
8. Only old isolationist Brits want to leave the EU
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 07:46 AM
Feb 2016

In a deranged dream of going back to the "old days". Virtually nobody under the age of 60 wants to leave the EU.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,321 posts)
14. If the government didn't follow the result, they'd be chucked out
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 12:36 PM
Feb 2016

and to win an election, a party would have to promise to implement the result. To call it 'non-binding' would be highly misleading. Like calling the US electoral college 'non-binding'.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,321 posts)
16. Yes, that's the kind of highly misleading thing to say
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 01:08 PM
Feb 2016

Cameron won't be able to say "the referendum voted to leave, but business doesn't want to, so we won't". I don't know why you're trying to provide an example of something misleading about the referendum, but it isn't helping.

Helen Borg

(3,963 posts)
21. "undemocratic" does not mean illegal.
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 03:46 PM
Feb 2016

The referendum is non binding. If Cameron and his buddies wanted to ignore it, they could.

muriel_volestrangler

(101,321 posts)
22. But it's incredibly misleading to suggest that they would
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 04:00 PM
Feb 2016

That's why I compared it to the US electoral college. Legally, the electors can decide to vote for the other candidate. But they don't (unless it's one person who wants a moment of meaningless fame before his party stops trusting him ever again), because they have a vague idea of democracy. And a PM would not survive ignoring this referendum.

Calling it 'non-binding' gives completely the wrong idea, and you should stop it.

pampango

(24,692 posts)
17. "IF" - Since the Labour Party and the unions oppose Brexit and RW Tories support it,
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 01:43 PM
Feb 2016

the question of which side "big money" is on is a good one. Since Cameron's deal with the EU would preserve free trade with Europe while weakening labor and social protections, "big money" should be quite happy with Brexit.

LeftishBrit

(41,208 posts)
25. Even big money can only go so far
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:15 PM
Feb 2016

They can influence the media and try to buy the vote, but they cannot actually prevent Brexit if the population votes for it.

And not all 'big money' will want to stay in the EU - far from it, in fact. Some big businesses would do better without the EU restrictions; some would do better with the EU connections. Indeed much of our corporate media is very much on the Leave side, which indicates where at least some groups and individuals think that their bread is buttered.

The Conservative Party - which generally sympathizes with 'big money' and indeed depends on it for donations - is split on the issue: apparently about 50-50 within Parliament; predominantly pro-Brexit among the non-Parliamentary membership.

LeftishBrit

(41,208 posts)
27. Unfortunately there are plenty of isolationist Brits under 60
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:35 PM
Feb 2016

You are correct that older people are more Eurosceptic, but it is certainly not the case that all younger Brits are pro-EU.

It has to be remembered that while nostalgia and 'right little, tight little island' isolationism do contribute to Euroscepticism, probably the biggest driving force is a suspicion and fear of immigration, always common in England (especially in areas where there in fact very few immigrants) and whipped by the pseudo-populist right-wing media.

It should also be remembered that even among likely Remain voters such as myself, enthusiasm for the EU is not as strong in the UK as in many Europaean countries. The EU is often considered (with some justification IMO) to be over-bureaucratic, over-centralized, and to have too many officials and MEPs riding a gravy train. However, in our opinion these considerations are outweighed by the likely negative economic repercussions of Brexit; by the increasing ugly and racist agendas of many promoting the Leave side; and by the thought of our getting caught up in the machinations of non-EU leaders' agendas - including, I have to say, possible future Republican presidents.

 

KamaAina

(78,249 posts)
20. "to guarantee the country’s continued EU membership."
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 03:25 PM
Feb 2016

We went through this the first time. Any EU country can veto a prospective new member. In this case, the most likely candidate would be Spain, which might well see Scottish independence as encouraging their own separatist-minded Basques and Catalans.

Warpy

(111,274 posts)
28. A huge thread among foul mouthed knitters in the UK
Mon Feb 22, 2016, 05:36 PM
Feb 2016

has shown that most of them want to stay in the EU. A lot of the reasons cited are convenience reasons and the ability to pay less for tariff free goods from the continent. They especially like being able to cross national borders in the quicker "EU" queue.

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