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geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:15 PM Apr 2016

NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Hold Sizable Leads in New York

Source: NBC

In the Democratic race, Clinton is ahead of Bernie Sanders among likely Democratic primary voters by 14 points, 55 percent to 41 percent.

Clinton leads Sanders among African Americans (68 percent to 28 percent), those ages 45 and older (66 percent to 30 percent) and women (58 percent to 38 percent).

Sanders, meanwhile, holds the advantage among those younger than 45 (62 percent to 37 percent) and those who describe themselves as "very liberal" (59 percent to 40 percent). The two are running roughly even among men and Latinos.

Geographically, Clinton is ahead of Sanders in New York City (58 percent to 39 percent) and in the suburbs (61 percent to 36 percent), but Sanders holds a one-point lead in Upstate New York (49 percent to 48 percent).

Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/nbc-poll-trump-clinton-hold-sizable-leads-new-york-n554311

It's looking like a 12-18 point race at this point. One week to go.

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NBC Poll: Trump, Clinton Hold Sizable Leads in New York (Original Post) geek tragedy Apr 2016 OP

LOL! Rafale Apr 2016 #1

there was a contested primary in 2008 in geek tragedy Apr 2016 #3

New York is a closed primary state, Michigan and Wisconsin are not question everything Apr 2016 #10

A margin half that size for Hillary pretty much ends the primary contest this month. LonePirate Apr 2016 #2

neither of them can reach the +2,000 delegate count... it will be one heck of a Convention secondwind Apr 2016 #7

I'm planning on voting for Hillary next week, and one thing I've heard repeatedly from - surprise! anotherproletariat Apr 2016 #4

This message was self-deleted by its author Gene Debs Apr 2016 #5

never. geek tragedy Apr 2016 #6

This message was self-deleted by its author DUbeornot2be Apr 2016 #8

epistemic closure and fantasy do not endure nt geek tragedy Apr 2016 #9

S-U-R-R-E-N-D-E-R__ B-E-R-N-I-E Octafish Apr 2016 #11

Wow, Bernie was making gains until he decided to pull the Pope Stunt itsrobert Apr 2016 #12

More likely the qualified stuff and more backlash geek tragedy Apr 2016 #13

Rafale

(291 posts)

1. LOL!

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:24 PM

Apr 2016

Reminds me of what was said prior to the Michigan vote: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-the-polls-missed-bernie-sanders-michigan-upset/

Could the pollsters be part of the so-called "establishment?" I wonder. I guess we shall see the truth soon. The turnout at the rallies may be a better indicator at this point.

Nonetheless appreciate the news post. <thumbs up>

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

3. there was a contested primary in 2008 in

Reply to Rafale (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:26 PM

Apr 2016

so pollsters have a decent turnout model ready, not so with Michigan.

Also, no independents in NY, so no X-factor that way.

question everything

(47,487 posts)

10. New York is a closed primary state, Michigan and Wisconsin are not

Reply to Rafale (Reply #1)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 09:07 PM

Apr 2016

We already know that most of Sanders' voters are not Democrats but took advantage of the open primary. They will find this path blocked in New York and in Pennsylvania.

Next question?

LonePirate

(13,426 posts)

2. A margin half that size for Hillary pretty much ends the primary contest this month.

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:24 PM

Apr 2016

There's no reason to think the April 26 states will vote any differently if the momentum shifts to Hillary after a NY win. She might increase her pledged delegate lead by 100 delegates after the northeast states (minus NJ) vote. I don't see how Bernie recovers if that happens.

secondwind

(16,903 posts)

7. neither of them can reach the +2,000 delegate count... it will be one heck of a Convention

Reply to LonePirate (Reply #2)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 06:13 PM

Apr 2016

anotherproletariat

(1,446 posts)

4. I'm planning on voting for Hillary next week, and one thing I've heard repeatedly from - surprise!

Reply to geek tragedy (Original post)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:35 PM

Apr 2016

millennials, is that they don't want another old, white guy. With one notable exception, that's all we've ever had.

I have to admit that most of my friends don't follow politics the way I do, and don't see much difference between the two Democrats, but those that are interested in nuance are also much more likely to support Hillary.

Response to geek tragedy (Original post)

Gene Debs This message was self-deleted by its author.

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts)

6. never.

Reply to Gene Debs (Reply #5)

Mon Apr 11, 2016, 05:50 PM

Apr 2016

Michigan was the possible exception, but the polling there was off because they had a really lousy turnout model and bad pollsters muddying the water. And a LOT of independents showed up.

It was always very close in Michigan--both campaigns had it under single digits all along.