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stockholmer

(3,751 posts) Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:18 PM Dec 2011

Breaking:Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges(last pre-vote poll)

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/2011/12/31/romney-leads-paul-in-new-des-moines-register-iowa-poll-santorum-surging/

Mitt Romney tops the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll in the closing days before the Iowa caucuses, but Ron Paul and Rick Santorum are poised within striking distance. The poll, conducted Tuesday through Friday, shows support at 24 percent for Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts; 22 percent for Paul, a Texas congressman; and 15 percent for the surging Rick Santorum, a former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania.

But the four-day results don’t reflect just how quickly momentum is shifting in a race that has remained highly fluid for months. If the final two days of polling are considered separately, Santorum rises to second place, with 21 percent, pushing Paul to third, at 18 percent. Romney remains the same, at 24 percent. “Momentum’s name is Rick Santorum,” said the Register’s pollster, J. Ann Selzer.

Another sign of the race’s volatility: 41 percent of likely caucusgoers say they could still be persuaded to change their minds. Selzer & Co. of Des Moines conducted the poll of 602 likely Republican caucusgoers, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In the final two days of polling, 302 likely caucusgoers were interviewed, with a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points.

Rounding out the field, in results from the full, four-day poll: former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich, 12 percent, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, 11 percent, and Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, 7 percent.

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11 replies

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Breaking:Romney leads Paul in new Des Moines Register Iowa Poll; Santorum surges(last pre-vote poll) (Original Post) stockholmer Dec 2011 OP

As a point of comparison Romney got 27% in 2008. grantcart Dec 2011 #1

Those ron paul newsletters are probably having an effect... Kahuna Dec 2011 #2

Iowa DUers. Get your butts to the polls and vote for Ron Paul. onehandle Dec 2011 #3

I think they should vote Santorum, as he's polling in 2nd place liskddksil Jan 2012 #8

Santorum could win this mr_liberal Dec 2011 #4

Do Repug caucuses work like Dem ones... Critters2 Jan 2012 #9

One does not have to be Repuke to vote in the Iowa Repuke Caucuses. The Des Moines coalition_unwilling Dec 2011 #5

Paul has no chance of being the GOP nominee, none. mr_liberal Dec 2011 #6

Well, it means something. I guess we differ on what a Paul coalition_unwilling Jan 2012 #7

It means a lot imho musicblind Jan 2012 #10

Surging Santorum daleo Jan 2012 #11

grantcart

(53,061 posts)

1. As a point of comparison Romney got 27% in 2008.

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:29 PM

Dec 2011

Kahuna

(27,311 posts)

2. Those ron paul newsletters are probably having an effect...

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 09:30 PM

Dec 2011

I expect a ronulan to show up any moment to protest and claim there NO PROOF that paul said any of those horrid things.

Kahuna did some digging and found a treasure trove with pdfs of the actual newsletters at:
http://ronpaulnewsletters.blogspot.com

onehandle

(51,122 posts)

3. Iowa DUers. Get your butts to the polls and vote for Ron Paul.

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:01 PM

Dec 2011

Don't make it easy for Mittens.

liskddksil

(2,753 posts)

8. I think they should vote Santorum, as he's polling in 2nd place

Reply to onehandle (Reply #3)

Sun Jan 1, 2012, 02:06 AM

Jan 2012

in the second two days of the poll's fielding.

mr_liberal

(1,017 posts)

4. Santorum could win this

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:05 PM

Dec 2011

If Bachmann and Perry's voters decide to back him on caucus night, to keep Romney and Paul from winning.

Gingrich may be making a bit of a comeback. I still think the best he can do is fourth though.

Critters2

(30,889 posts)

9. Do Repug caucuses work like Dem ones...

Reply to mr_liberal (Reply #4)

Sun Jan 1, 2012, 03:06 AM

Jan 2012

Is there a first vote which eliminates any candidate with less than 15% of that precinct's votes? If so, I'm guessing the Bachmann and Perry votes will go to Santorum on the second ballot.

coalition_unwilling

(14,180 posts)

5. One does not have to be Repuke to vote in the Iowa Repuke Caucuses. The Des Moines

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:13 PM

Dec 2011

Register's results may not be capturing the depth of support for Paul here if, as the article implies, it surveyed only "likely Republican caucusgoers".

Ambiguous wording (poor editor). Does the article mean "likely caucusgoers who are Republican" or "likely participants (irrespective of party affiliation) at the Republican caucuses"?

If Dems and Independents were included in the sample, I suspect Paul would blow Willard out of the water. I hope it happens, as Paul will be a far easier candidate for Obama to defeat than Willard in the General Election.

mr_liberal

(1,017 posts)

6. Paul has no chance of being the GOP nominee, none.

Reply to coalition_unwilling (Reply #5)

Sat Dec 31, 2011, 10:52 PM

Dec 2011

If he wins Iowa that means nothing.

coalition_unwilling

(14,180 posts)

7. Well, it means something. I guess we differ on what a Paul

Reply to mr_liberal (Reply #6)

Sun Jan 1, 2012, 01:50 AM

Jan 2012

victory in Iowa might mean.

To me, a Paul victory in Iowa will bespeak a near-fatal schism in the Repukes, between the big-money boys whose candidate is Romney and the nativist-libertarian wing whose candidate is Paul.

Would be interesting to see a race between Paul and Romney only, without all the other candidates distracting from the existential show-down.

musicblind

(4,484 posts)

10. It means a lot imho

Reply to mr_liberal (Reply #6)

Sun Jan 1, 2012, 03:31 AM

Jan 2012

It means Ron Paul will be well poised for a 3rd party run after the establishment republicans COMPLETELY DISRESPECT his victory.

daleo

(21,317 posts)

11. Surging Santorum

Reply to stockholmer (Original post)

Sun Jan 1, 2012, 06:15 PM

Jan 2012

Not a pretty picture.

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