Clinton's Lead Over Trump Shrinks to 3 Points: New NBC News/WSJ Poll
Source: NBC News/WSJ
Hillary Clinton's advantage over Donald Trump has narrowed to just three points resulting in a dead-heat general-election contest with more than five months to go until November, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Clinton, who remains a heavy favorite to win the Democrat nomination, leads the presumptive GOP nominee 46 percent to 43 percent among registered voters, a difference that is within the poll's margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.1 percentage points. In April, Clinton held an 11-point advantage over Trump, 50 percent to 39 percent, and had led him consistently by double digits since December.
Read more: http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/clinton-s-lead-over-trump-shrinks-3-points-new-nbc-n577726
Same poll has Sanders beating Trump by 15 points.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Is that the GOP has completely ignored him. They know that he's not going to secure the Democratic nomination, they know that Clinton's camp is already attacking him, and they see no benefit in wasting resources on the candidate who won't wind up on the ticket anyway.
As such, Sanders hasn't had to face the many decades of nonstop Republican attacks that Clinton has weathered, many of which are cheerfully echoed right here on DU on a daily or hourly basis.
So, sure. hypothetical Sanders at this moment beats hypothetical Trump in a hypothetical November contest. But how would Sanders fare in the face of relentless Republican attacks?
Odds are that we'll never find out.
winstars
(4,220 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)Your speculation on the cause of those results is not factual.
liberalmike27
(2,479 posts)Are investing in the "pipe dream," rather than factual polls.
Yea, ignoring Sanders in the media has really done good things for him, in the primary States, especially early-on, when he might have been better known in Southern States, and gotten more delegates. Good stuff, how if people don't know you at all due to terrible, terrible media, you're going to do great. Just good Clinton "thinking" there. Nope.
Andy823
(11,495 posts)That if the polls showed Hillary doing better than Bernie by a large amount those poll "facts" would be ignored by the Bernie gang. What do you think?
tabasco
(22,974 posts)It's important to be able to distinguish between the two.
Well here are facts, if more people actually voted for Bernie instead of just going to the rallies, holding signs and screaming No Hillary, he would be winning wouldn't he?
mark67
(196 posts)The corporate media have become professional, well funded trolls...they'll run this as a closely contested horserace up until election day. I was overseas in 2008 and stayed up until 3 am in the morning watching election results thinking that Romney/Ryan actually had a chance before they lost in a landslide.
Bernie needs to bow out gracefully and push his agenda forward with other than an oval office bid. I respect his message but he's quickly becoming the Ralph Nader/Ross Perot of the 2016 election.
Anyone who doesn't appreciate/understand/respect the power of the Clinton machine don't live in NC where the Democratic Party is limp, flaccid, essentially non-existent.
Duval
(4,280 posts)At least in the NC 4th district, we have David Price, a well known and greatly admired Democrat. Let's hope we'll get this 2 year old out of the Governor's office and bring in more Democrats.
forest444
(5,902 posts)I doubt even the Democratic Party is foolhardy enough to nominate someone under federal indictment - even if it is a partisan witch hunt.
paleotn
(17,931 posts)yes, some poll shows Bernie leading Clinton against Trump. But this early in the game, it means little if anything.
LeFleur1
(1,197 posts)Sometimes I wonder if polls are set up so the media can have a big contest going for their viewers. No one I know has ever been polled and neither have I. You?
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Has the GOP attacked Sanders for decades? Present your basis for this conclusion.
Does the GOP think that he'll wind up on the ballot? Present your basis for this concusion.
Would Sanders still poll with a 15-point advantage after bearing the entirety of the GOP's attack machine? Present your basis for this conclusion.
Look, I know that you don't like Clinton, and as long as you vote for the Democrat on the ticket in November, I don't care. But it serves nothing to cling to fairytale speculation about Sanders' unstoppable victory nationwide if only he'd managed to achieve victory in his own party.
Well, "his own party" for the past few months, anyway.
406-Boz
(53 posts)She's hated by the right for being a "liberal", despised by the left for being "Republican-lite". To know her is to detest her.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Nice of you to carry their water for them.
406-Boz
(53 posts)It's not difficult!
Orrex
(63,215 posts)I'm not impressed by a poll that compares the current and completely untested Sanders against Trump. Let's see the poll showing the impact of months of nonstop GOP attacks on Sanders. Then we'll see.
Absent such a poll, you're issuing proclamations of faith that are of no interest to me.
In fact, the only poll data that matters at this time is the delegate count. How's that going for Sanders?
Hortensis
(58,785 posts)Norman J. Ornstein is a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. Alan I. Abramowitz is a professor of political science at Emory.
In this highly charged election, its no surprise that the news media see every poll like an addict sees a new fix. That is especially true of polls that show large and unexpected changes. Those polls get intense coverage and analysis, adding to their presumed validity.
The problem is that the polls that make the news are also the ones most likely to be wrong. And to folks like us, who know the polling game and can sort out real trends from normal perturbations, too many of this years polls, and their coverage, have been cringeworthy.
What about the neck-and-neck race described in the NBC/Survey Monkey poll? A deeper dig shows that 28 percent of Latinos in this survey support Mr. Trump. If the candidate were a conventional Republican like Mitt Romney or George W. Bush, that wouldnt raise eyebrows. But most other surveys have shown Mr. Trump eking out 10 to 12 percent among Latino voters.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/opinion/stop-the-polling-insanity.html?login=email&login=email&login=email&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-right-region
Cary
(11,746 posts)Your choice is to be for our nominee or against her. I don't see many of you being for her.
Keep going around and around though. That's doing so much good.
406-Boz
(53 posts)It will be an interesting election season.
"I don't see many of you being for her."
Many of whom?
Cary
(11,746 posts)Well then this country is in trouble, because it is getting evident that Sanders is not going to win, and I guess most sanders supporters don't like Clinton, so... that leaves one thing.....and I guess we know what happens.
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)Life long democrat here, and I can't stand the Clintons. It's like the rules don't apply to them and they think they can just get us with brand loyalty while they triangulate. Not this time. Not gonna fall for it.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)I like Sanders. I like what he has to say, and I believe that he is an honest person dedicated to the well-being of the non-investor class. I voted for him the PA primary.
But I am not convinced that he's the stronger candidate, I don't accept claims that he's been tested against the GOP, and I don't share the belief that current polls are relevant to electoral reality in November.
FWIW, if he should wind up being the nominee, you can bet that I'll happily vote for him in a heartbeat.
War Pigs
(252 posts)as happy as the 96k Nader voters in Fla who put than war mongering chimp in the white house in 2000. Thousands dead and billions wasted- but hey Nader was polling at 2%!!! President Trump...I can hardly wait
Ned_Devine
(3,146 posts)If Gore had been a better candidate and stood for real progressive principles there wouldn't have been a need for Nader. But keep pounding that bullshit drum if it helps you sleep better.
Merryland
(1,134 posts)floriduck
(2,262 posts)your claim. She showed where the vast majority of Nader voters pulled those votes away from the GOP. I'm sure you could find in by searching. I watched it already so I'm not going to waste the time doing it again.
floriduck
(2,262 posts)You need those independents more than Debbie and the Dem party knows.
Chakab
(1,727 posts)seen in politics.
He's been attacked by the GOP and Clinton, but ,most importantly, by the mainstream media at every step.
The media has treated him like he's a total farce in the same manner that they were treating Trump when he first announced his candidacy. The difference is, unlike Trump, the media never stopped being dismissive of Sanders when he gained widespread national support.
The constant derision and framing of Sanders as a crazy person who's pushing unrealistic, pie-in-the-sky policies (irrespective of the fact that said policies have been enacted in every other developed country in the world and that many, like free tuition in state colleges, used to be part of domestic policy in the US itself) is more damaging that any attack the GOP noise machine could come up with, yet he's still performing astonishingly well in the national polls.
I'm not a Bernie or buster, and I want Trump to lose at all costs. However, the people who keep spinning the narratives that are totally contrary to reality and the people who unthinkingly regurgitate them need a reality check sooner rather than later.
libdem4life
(13,877 posts)Now they have to justify it.
He has not been vetted at all. I would bet that the republicans gathered a load of shit to smear him with, even if some of it isn't even true, their base would eat it up. Bernie has a lot of baggage that has simply not been put on the table. Republicans left him alone and went after Hillary. Hillary left him pretty much alone also. Bernie has had it easy. The media wants a horse race and they will do anything they can to keep one going between Hillary and Trump.
I do agree, if Bernie had faced all the right wing BS thrown at him like Clinton has, he would be in a lot worse position in the polls.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)He's been in more races.
He'll handle it like a champ.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Rather than, you know, the delegate count and, ultimately, the electoral count.
There is absolutely zero evidence that Sanders can handle the inevitable GOP onslaught waiting in store for the 2016 Democratic candidate, and any speculation to that end is faith-based wishful thinking.
You imagine that he'll do well, but on what evidence? The fact that he's never had to face it?
I like Sanders, and frankly I voted for him in the PA primary, but it's foolish (and it serves no purpose) to pretend that his chances are better than they are.
tecelote
(5,122 posts)Washpost poll shows Clinton has a higher unfavorable than favorable.
The opposite for Bernie.
Hillary: 44 Favorable 53 Unfavorable
Bernie: 51 Favorable 38 Unfavorable
Why wouldn't I expect him to do well?
Clinton may have more Dems but Sanders has a lot and he'll garner the independents and even rational repubs (if that animal exists).
You really think Hillary is less capable than the GOP? She must be giving him a pass - right?
Orrex
(63,215 posts)that no women or minorities will vote.
JPnoodleman
(454 posts)Orrex
(63,215 posts)Well, you can take comfort in the fact that you won't have to worry about it this time around, either.
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)There is nothing the Republicans could ever do to create an atmosphere where only 37% of the public believe she can be trusted.
Just the video of her leisurely walking to the awaiting plane in Bosnia after she claimed she was having to duck sniper fire has done more damage to her than anything the Republicans could ever do.
And we're talking about Donald Trump here, the guys a reality TV star.. She should be crushing him.
If anything Hillary's receiving tremendous benefit simply by being the establishment Democratic party candidate.
If Bernie Sanders was currently under FBI investigation and one of his staff had accepted an immunity offer, we would be hearing nothing but Sanders needs to resign of the media and the Hillary campaign 24/7...
If Hillary becomes the nominee I'll vote for her and hope to God she beats Trump. But you folks have to stop fooling yourselves, Hillary is a weak candidate and just as we saw with Obama the more she's exposed the less people like her.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Do you seriously believe that such a dedicated and focused tidal wave of propaganda has no effect on public perception? It's convinced Republicans and--to judge from DU the past few months--more than a few Democrats.
Are you unfamiliar with the concept of advertising?
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)than Barrack Obama.. Hillary's negatives are much higher than Obama's... I didn't say negative attacks didn't have an effect but we're talking super low numbers.. 37% believe she's telling them then truth..
Only 27% of the American public are registered Republican, so when it comes to Trump and current polling it includes lots of Independents.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)There's the type that consistently and overwhelmingly aligns with one of the established political parties but simply wants to claim to be "independent" like it's a meaningful badge of honor. We see a lot of this type on DU, and it includes those who complain about not getting to vote for their chosen Democrat in closed primaries. Such Independents will proudly declare that they've voted for this or that candidate from the "other" party, so they're totally Indepedent for realz, see?
And there's the other type, the statistically small type that insists that they're really independent and can only support an ideal imaginary candidate who represents their values. And then they exclusively vote for one party or the other.
I'm sure that I'll get a parade of replies mocking me for my mind-reading abilities, but in 2 1/2 decades of political consciousness, I've seen little to suggest that my conclusions are incorrect.
So the Independents whom you project to be lined up for Trump... Do you imagine that they'd magically jump over to Sanders if only he could muster enough delegates to make it onto the ballot? Do you think that they're Republicans just waiting for the chance to vote for the far-Left Democratic Socialist?
That's a nice hypothetical, but there's seems little hope of testing it in reality.
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)I left the Democratic party and became an Independent.. It had nothing to do with a badge of honor.. It became clear that the Dem. party no longer reflected the FDR populist values that I valued. I switched parties to vote for Sanders.
You're making a huge mistake to cynically trivialize the reason so many people have left the Democratic party over the last thirty years. along with no longer attracting the 30 and under vote. Thats the canary in the mineshaft my friend.. The two major parties in this country now barely make up half the population.. The majority of the public is choosing either to not be identified with either party, or simply not to vote at all.
The fact is, and this is reflected in the Princeton study a couple of years back, our system of government has degenerated into a government that ignores the welfare of the poor and middle class. We're currently living in an Oligarchy. And the current Democratic party establishment has not only stood by and allowed it to happen they've helped it along..
Orrex
(63,215 posts)It can be paraphrased as "We're the REAL Democrats, and to prove it we're leaving the party," and I see it on DU at least twice a day. Everyone fancies themselves to represent "real" integrity and "real" values, and that's nice.
Well, I've got news for you: no candidate on any ticket during my electoral lifetime has "reflected the values that I value." At best, some have reflected some of my values, so like a mature human being able to compromise, I select the candidate who represents most of my values.
High-minded Independents cluck their tongues and dismiss this as "the lesser of two evils" (this, too, is demonstrated several times daily on DU). But Sanders himself is no saint, and he's plenty fond of drone strikes and F-35 cashcows, so you're lying to yourself if you pretend that he's anything but one among a field of evils. What you're doing is exactly what everyone else is doing: you're picking the evil that you are best able to stomach, but you're convincing yourself that this makes you "independent" instead of just like everyone else.
If and when Independents do become a statistically significant and reliable base of voters, you can bet that the dominant parties will court them, as Trump is currently courting Independents.
But as long as they are unreliable (and they still are) and as long as it's unclear that they're sure to show up at the polls (and it is), then Independents will remain a strategic footnote.
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)You're no longer living in a Democracy and the only "Democrats" even mentioning that fact is Jimmy Carter, Elizabeth Warren and Democratic Socialist Bernie Sanders..
As with anything else that isn't serving the welfare of the people supporting it,it dies... Blaming the people who're leaving the party is the the best way to insure a quick death....
Sander isn't perfect no one is.. But the F-35 vote was a vote for jobs in his state of Vermont. And to say is "fond" of drone strikes is a misrepresentation.. That would be like saying Hillary is fond of Shock and Awe.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)They're the only ones who really get it, see? Everyone else is a sheep or a corporatist of a third-way enabler. Blah blah blah it's been going on for years. And only their anointed candidates reflect "true" Democratic values.
I don't now how old you are and I don't care, but we haven't lived in a democracy at any time during my voting life, and helping to elect Trump by refusing to vote for the Democrat sure as shit won't restore democracy to the land.
raindaddy
(1,370 posts)existing within the Democratic party because there's no longer any room for them in the extreme RW Republican party??
You musta've been born after Ronald Reagan revolution and the Democratic party's response, Bill Clinton neoliberal revolution...And electing another neolib won't restore Democracy either.. Hillary isn't quite as narcissistic and is more progressive when it comes to social issues that makes her the lessor of two evils...
"Sanders isn't perfect no one is.."
Completely disingenuous.. There's a big difference between disagreeing with a couple of Senate votes and 60% of the public not trusting a candidate before she even steps into the oval office. Those current negatives will even be higher after having Trump and the Republicans expose the questionable Clinton Foundation and whatever the FBI comes up with after their investigation...
LiberalFighter
(50,947 posts)liberalmike27
(2,479 posts)If you look at States Hillary Clinton has won, it looks even worse. Bernie is winning, or tying in States Democrats can actually win, and building up huge vote advantages in the South, where Democrats don't have a chance in hell of winning.
The point we're making is, Sanders is the better choice to win. And the more he's covered in the media, just like in the primaries, the more voters are going to like, especially independents that sometimes vote either way.
LiberalFighter
(50,947 posts)Currently, the states that Obama won in 2008, Clinton has won 13 and Sanders has won 12. The electoral equivalency for those states are Clinton: 188 - Sanders: 84. Indiana was one of those states and maybe it can be won again this time but currently the Cook Report only has it leaning red. Sanders won that state in the primary. Take it away and it is now Clinton 13 (still 188) and Sanders 11 (now 73).
I don't follow how Sanders is building up huge vote advantages in the South. Yes, independents sometimes vote either way. But if these independents are in the moderate scale they would not be voting for Sanders. They would have to be in an area between the far left and the far right looking at in on a circle instead of a line. If that is even possible.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Since the very beginning, one of my chief complaints about Sanders is his de facto anonymity outside of the ranks of his supporters, and the answer has always been "wait until they get to know him."
Well, time's running out, so what's he waiting for?
The media aren't obligated to inform the electorate about the candidates, though they're more than happy to run with a click-baiting story (e.g., Donald Trump and his idiot constituency).
But Sanders must have known this. He must have known that the media would not pick up and run with his story in a way that would greatly benefit his campaign, so one wonders what sort of end game he has in mind and when he plans to reveal himself to the public at large.
wisteria
(19,581 posts)Plucketeer
(12,882 posts)and Bernie starring as the niggle-some populist , we have but to watch as Ms. Wasserman-Schultz' script rewards us with the rousing climax she's conditioned us to expect. You KNOW she's got the plot figured down to the last bit of confetti.
Bring the house down? That's a real possibility. Bring on the popcorn!
shawn703
(2,702 posts)If she really wants to win. Not looking good for her at all.
liberalmike27
(2,479 posts)Is the counting done yet? I've heard they've still got votes coming in, and they're heavily weighted toward Sanders. His lead is still growing there.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)We'll see.
If Sanders was running as an independent, Hillary would have lost months ago. He has also drawn many new Democrat voters to the party. She should appreciate that, but will she?
Her smartest course of action is to embrace Bernie and his supporters, swallow her pride, and say she has once again "evolved" and is open to universal healthcare, and a 15 an hour minimum wage, and that Banks must never be too big to fail. Even if she is once again lying through her teeth. But to cement that by announcing Sanders as her running mate, or pre-announcing Bernie as a high level appointment in her cabinet may just stave off a complete cliff dive.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)There is no polling data to show how Sanders would do if he were running as an Independent. None. Zero. All speculation to that end is based on wishful thinking and nothing else.
What we have instead are semi-meaningless polls asking how people would vote if the election were between Sanders (D) and Trump (R). Sanders does reasonably well in these, in part because it presupposes that he'll have the support and backing of the Democratic party.
But let's see the polling data for Sanders (I) running against Clinton (D) and Trump (R). Sanders would enjoy no support from the party, and he certainly doesn't have the capital to mount a two-front contest against a well-funded Democratic party and a super-well-funded Republican party.
At most, an Independent Sanders would shave off enough votes from Clinton to guarantee a Trump presidency, and one can only conclude that Sanders knows this, because he's not an idiot.
Sanders is a gracious and honest person. When the time comes, I am confident that he'll endorse Clinton and will urge his supporters to do the same. But will they?
shawn703
(2,702 posts)And what she's willing to do to earn it. If you don't want a Trump presidency, you should do what you can to convince her to win over Sanders supporters.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)For any but the most short-sighted and narcissistic, her intent to defeat Trump should be sufficient to "earn it."
This is a theme I've seen again and again from Sanders supporters: nothing is more important than their own vote, and fuck the country if they don't get their pony.
SunSeeker
(51,571 posts)LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)So let me get this straight; this is the primaries still, despite what you may think watching the MSM, but Hillary should not have to "earn" the votes of Democrats, simply having an "intent to defeat" should be enough.......because.........Hillary!
And no, nothing, in a democracy, is more important than our vote. Especially if one believes that the country will be more fucked if the pony named Sanders does not win. So until the primaries are over, we will fight for this and whether it is Hillary or Bernie, they have to earn our vote. Shocking though that seems to some.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)Unless you're not a Democrat.
I'm not impressed with the consistent masturbatory theme from so-called "Independents" who want everyone to pay attention to them but who can't, for instance, be bothered to read the fucking rules on a primary registration.
If Sanders wins the nomination, then he has earned my vote in November. Hell, he earned my vote in May in the PA primary.
But once the primaries and convention are over, so-called "Independents" can either act like grownups, or they can help elect Trump.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)I think its the independents that we all should be annoyed with, not Bernie or Hillary supporters. It is they that want a perfect candidate, a pony. One that checks off all of their customized "values". Picking a couple from the Democrats, a couple from the Republicans, and a few from the Liberatarians, and then maybe another personal one that suits them or their family specifically.
Response to LiberalLovinLug (Reply #137)
Orrex This message was self-deleted by its author.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)But you seem to insist on finding fault.
Ok, first off, I don't see much difference in your two types of "independents". Both proclaim their independence and then vote for the party they traditionally vote for anyways. That is the way it comes across by what you wrote.
In the interests of full disclosure, I'm Canadian, so I cannot vote. I guess I am the ultimate independent. I take interest in American politics because what happens in your country greatly affects what happens in ours. As we are each others largest trading partners. And Trump winning would be appalling for all of North America.
But if I could vote, and Hillary won, I would hold my nose if I had to, but I'd vote Democratic no matter what. Because if she wins, she hopefully will be smart enough to realize she must listen to the progressive base of her own party, distasteful though that may be to her, and the loud message they gave her with such a populist support of Bernie's more liberal policy platform. But if the Don won, they wouldn't even get a squeak. And here in Canada, it would give encouragment to our own racist, bigoted segment.
You also have to understand that this whole registering as a D or an R or an I is foreign to me. We simply apply once to register to vote, with no party preference, wherever we are living, and every cycle we are sent our voter registration for that particular election. If we move we reapply. We do not declare our preference beforehand as registering as a D,R, or I. I never understood this as it seems open to abuse. I remember reading a report of Repubilcan groups registering voters and then summarily dumping all the D registrations in the garbage. If we wanted to vote in our own party primaries, then it takes another step of signing up as a member of that party and hopefully volunteering etc. to help out.
Back to the point. And to address something you said in your other thread post, of course Sanders is getting support from many of those that traditionally had voted Republican. Baffling though that is. Maybe its that Faux News and hate radio has conditioned them to never in a million years ever vote for Hillary, plus the fact that they just cannot stomach, like Mitt Romney, the extreme buffoonery and divisive behavior of Trump, plus they agree with enough of Bernie's platforms like breaking up the banks, stopping foreign wars of aggression, legalization of pot, etc.. which appeals to the libertarian ilk. And also, I think even some, while they would never admit to liking socialism, are attracted to things like free college for their kids, and a $15 minimum wage. Its a combination of these things for many who call themselves "independent".
That's why Bernie would have a better shot than Hillary.
And what is even more frustrating for those of us that support Bernie is that he is not only the one that has the better chance to have a Democratic administration in the White House, and deny Trump's particular form of fascism, but that he is also the most progressive and closer to traditional FDR values.
Orrex
(63,215 posts)LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)I did in fact take issue with some of your content after all. But its all good debate I say.
cheers.
LiberalLovinLug
(14,174 posts)running as an independent against Hillary and Trump.
I only said Hillary would have lost. As you said "an Independent Sanders would shave off enough votes from Clinton to guarantee a Trump presidency".
And that is what Hillary should be thankful for, that he stuck with the Democratic Party, despite all the grief he's given her. Plus there is a whole new generation of voters that were enticed to get into the political process because of Bernie's message. If she does nothing to woo these ex-Sanders supporters, not only is this a huge opportunity wasted for the D party to get new younger blood into the party, but she ignores them at her own peril.
Now...I have said in other posts that IF Trump had been contested, and been ganged up on and Cruz or Paul was shoehorned in as the nominee, and Trump went maverick and ran himself...then in a four way race, Bernie could very well win. But thats not what we are discussing.
JoeOtterbein
(7,702 posts)Response to JoeOtterbein (Reply #7)
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JoeOtterbein
(7,702 posts)spinbaby
(15,090 posts)Response to spinbaby (Reply #9)
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Igel
(35,320 posts)People don't look at polls dispassionately. They bring to them attitudes and opinions.
So, yeah. When Clinton's ahead, some look at the downside. When Trump's ahead, they look at the downside.
Back in 2008 or 2012--I forget which--there was this horrible tendency to look at increases in Obama's poll numbers and decreases in his opponent's. If you added up all the increases proudly reported on DU he'd have beat his opponent by something like 220% of the electorate versus -200% by his opponent, for a difference of more than 400% at the polls.
It was just a different kind of bias--triumphalist then, vaguely suspicious now.
JoeOtterbein
(7,702 posts)phazed0
(745 posts)Ford_Prefect
(7,901 posts)The same MSM that cannot somehow insist on a straight answer from the Trumpster, or ask him substantial follow up questions, or publish substantive information about his real past.
They built him using hyped versions of his mythology. Now they cannot unplug that machine for fear they will lose readership or worse be found out contradicting the world according to MSM.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)The ABC poll that puts Trump ahead is also rated A-.
http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/pollster-ratings/
Ford_Prefect
(7,901 posts)His public image is what the poll refers to. They have validated his views and his positions as reasonable alternatives and now must contend with the false choice he represents. Trump has no experience making institutions work as intended nor in accepting the complexities of responsible long term management decisions.
He's a one trick pony propped up by the dysfunctional mythology of the Tea party. A mythology rarely questioned at any length by the MSM who much prefer crisis and melodrama to the simple truth.
I have no doubt that many people have been sidelined in the rush to elevate Hillary and Donald. Their questions are not asked in much of the political polling that goes on whether they vote D, R or none of the above. The perception of a political horse race, the attendant stereotyping and glibly presumed sagacity of the many talking heads overshadows real questions about the future of our country the were supposed to be asked.
What we have here is a poll that validates the whole crooked process along with pointing up its weakness by comparing 2 largely derivative candidates.
Yes, I hear the HRC devotees and the professional pols insisting on the pragmatic differences between them as functioning presidents. I didn't dispute that. My point is that as they stand today both candidates are derivative of a system so overwhelmingly dominated by moneyed interests which they cannot help but represent.
In my view the choice between one evil and a lesser, different one is clear enough. We should not lose sight of how that came to be to be the choice we are assumed to make, and who has profited by distorting the process.
As it stands today the Democratic party has not yet completed the primary process. Who knows what might change?
tabasco
(22,974 posts)Which I consider helpful to her campaign this year.
Ford_Prefect
(7,901 posts)The MSM would sell their grandmothers and grandchildren, and probably already have, to maintain the capitalist fictions this race embodies.
Things tend to change over 4 years. The MSM is about selling the appearance of cultural continuity where it's convenient to do so. Can you see the paradox there?
The MSM has been far too comfortable with HRC and Trump as candidates in my view.
George II
(67,782 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)But it doesn't help H. Clinton in the general election.
George II
(67,782 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)Clinton is trending downward against Trump.
Nobody remembers the candidate that comes in second place.
George II
(67,782 posts)....taken place and base the Democratic nomination on the results of hypothetical polls?
tabasco
(22,974 posts)The primary is over, AFAIC. Now, what do we do with a candidate that is polling behind and trending downward against a clown-car con man like Donald Trump?
George II
(67,782 posts)....all the negative, bashing, destructive posts directed toward Hillary Clinton.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)is the mentality of a child.
Reter
(2,188 posts)n/t
George II
(67,782 posts)...."investigating" Hillary Clinton.
Folks can dwell on that and make that false claim but it's simply not true.
Response to tabasco (Reply #17)
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warrprayer
(4,734 posts)Beating Sanders is.
Arazi
(6,829 posts)She's really terribly flawed but they refuse to consider that
Response to Arazi (Reply #23)
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Nyan
(1,192 posts)She's growing unlikable every day, and that's not gonna stop even after she gets the nomination.
still_one
(92,219 posts)where alleged Sanders supporters are voting for trump over Hillary
Keep the misrepresentation up here, while I go canvassing and calling for Hillary again today in California
Loki
(3,825 posts)It's been beaten like a dead horse from the time the Clinton's were in the White House and it doesn't have to have an ounce of truth in it. The Republican Lie Machine makes sure that their propaganda network spews it on an hourly, daily and yearly basis. She's committed every crime in the book, so they say, and yet she's still standing. Only the gullible believe the lies, and like PT said, there's a sucker born every minute.
riderinthestorm
(23,272 posts)Response to tabasco (Original post)
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still_one
(92,219 posts)When they poll DEMOCRATS though there is no doubt who leads:
Hillary 56 Sanders 42 Hillary +14
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_democratic_presidential_nomination-3824.html
Posting these bullshit national polls as LBN is a joke
Loki
(3,825 posts)I'm a white woman, I'm a registered voter, and Ive never, NEVER been polled. Trump is a pig with no Hispanic or African American or women who support him. Without those demographics, he can't win, no way, no how.
still_one
(92,219 posts)Kilgore
(1,733 posts)We underestimate trump at our own peril!!!
WhoWoodaKnew
(847 posts)Bernie is Joseph Stalin. Say what you want about Trump but he is a vicious attack dog and his crap works for a number of people.
I've been telling everybody that I meet for months not to underestimate him. He knows exactly what buttons to push. He is a genius at some of the stuff he does and people need to quit denying that.
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)He is a genius at this game and knows how to play millions of people. He's tapped into the anger in this country, plenty of anger in the US. As you say, he knows exactly what buttons to push.
One downfall I see with Hillary, is she represents the establishment, and millions literally hate the establishment, right or wrong.
It's all perception, and Trump has captured that perception to his advantage. This will be a very close election. Some want to blame Bernie, there are far more dynamics going on in this country than just Bernie as a competitor.
zentrum
(9,865 posts)....on NPR is blaming Bernie this, for the most part. It's the MSM narrative we're supposed to line up behind.
If the Repugs hadn't been so universally awful, there would still be two or thee of them in their primaries too. It's normal to have more than the single candidate at this point in the primaries. Citizens, not parties, not super delegates, should get to pick the candidate they want in the fall.
She's doing badly because of her own inherent weakness as a candidate. And because she and DWS are alienating new young voters to a huge degree by how they speak about them and of Bernie, and yet, they seem unable to stop or to realize how wholly unappealing it is.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)NPR is pro-republican.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)If Bernie drops out, which all the Clintonites want to happen, you'll see Trump 55, Clinton 45. Welcome the new GOP.....
When in the hell are we going to wake up?
Kilgore
(1,733 posts)We do so at our own peril!!!!!!
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)Ya know, we can put this all to bed by making Bernie our nominee. Will that happen? Unlikely. And again, when the hell will we learn? Never?
RKP5637
(67,111 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)I'm not the brightest bulb in the pack, but I am smart enough to know a fake Christian con-man republican when I see one. Tens of millions of Americans are not that bright.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)Bernie is way behind in votes and delegates in the primary.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)And let the one candidate who can beat Trump have the nomination. No one likes Hillary outside of super partisan Democrats, sorry, those are the facts.
tabasco
(22,974 posts)Yet you screech for "more...more!"
RATM435
(392 posts)SamKnause
(13,108 posts)patsimp
(915 posts)Hillary was undefeatable, or so it was believed, 2 years ago. Recordings have emerged of the GOP having these discussions. They decided to make stuff up about Libya and focus on the other perceived negatives, and micro focus on real or perceived issues. 2 years later, the undefeatable candidate, is being challenged everywhere.
The same will happen to Bernie - and I believe worst. Outside our bubble, the rest of the population will not accept a self described socialist. I can see the adds - 'they want to take your money to create a generation of dependents', 'sanders panders to the .....'.
it won't be hard or take long.
SmittynMo
(3,544 posts)No one is as trustworthy as Bernie. No one!!! His record is the best out there.
They can make shit up all day long, but without facts, it is unlikely it will stick.
WhoWoodaKnew
(847 posts)Attorney in Texas
(3,373 posts)against the Republican nominee?
Dream Girl
(5,111 posts)For continuing to drum up Hillary hate. For dividing the party and sowing discord. Thanks Bernie for destroying the village to save it.
ForgoTheConsequence
(4,868 posts)Bernie made Hillary unlikable!
Bernie made Hillary ______ .
You support one of the most unlikeable candidates in history, it's your fault, own it. Hillary was never going to appeal to independents, ever. Thanks for President Trump, maybe it will be "Hillary's turn" in 2020.
Cryptoad
(8,254 posts)cannabis_flower
(3,764 posts)the Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson will talk more votes away from Trump than her. Unless everyone hates them both so much that they both end up losing to the Libertarians.
janx
(24,128 posts)Until polls start tracking Libertarian support on a regular basis, there's no way to even hazard a guess. But one thing is for certain, and I can't believe more people around here aren't acknowledging it: Given the dislike factor re Clinton and Trump, the Libertarians have a real opportunity to affect the upcoming general election.
No doubt about it.
Angel Martin
(942 posts)Trump vs Clinton is change vs. more of the same in a "change" year.
Sanders represents change, and probably change that more people will like
But, we don't know if Sanders can stand up to the Trump/Repub attack machine, and they will go after everything: Sander's entire past, his illegitimate child, his parents, Burlington College, the Sandinistas, Jeremy Corbyn, Venezuela... etc etc
Sanders has always been very guarded about his private life, which means Trump will go there constantly because he knows Sanders is bothered by it.
LibDemAlways
(15,139 posts)fronts, but the circumstances of his son's birth wouldn't be one of them. Trump's daughter Tiffany came into the world in October of 1993. Trump and the girl's mother, Marla Maples, were not married at the time. I think Trump's advisors would caution him to focus on Bernie's political philosophy rather than on his private life.
Likewise, he'd be wise to steer clear of Bill Clinton's indiscretions if he's facing Hillary as he has plenty of his own.
Angel Martin
(942 posts)Sanders is touchy about his privacy while Trump calls the tabloids himself so he can get front page coverage !
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)tabasco
(22,974 posts)"The Libya intervention was the worst mistake of my presidency."
Hmmmm. I wonder who his chief foreign policy advisor was at the time, who strongly advocated for that huge mistake. :
LaydeeBug
(10,291 posts)"Everyone knows what delegate math is"
And he hasn't even *begun* campaigning for Hillary yet. And make no mistake, tabasco...he *will* campaign for her.
Oh, but hey, nice try in your attempt to blame her for what ultimately falls at his footstep, (because we *ALL* know where the buck stops). But no dice.
Meantime, the Sanders campaign is falling, failing, falling, failing
(edit: typos)
tabasco
(22,974 posts)H. Clinton was totally out of the loop on that Libya thing! LMAO!
askeptic
(478 posts)We need to wait until after the conventions before anything really meaningful can be derived from the polls. Let's see what candidates/platforms emerge, what gaffes are made, and what information is revealed by the MSM. A lot will also depend on running mates, and how well they are campaigning, too.
noneko
(33 posts)It's a long shot but it would take her out of the race and Bernie will be at the forefront. Though I did read that the DNC still wouldn't support him and instead back Jeb. They are so corrupt. It's so frustrating! Why can't they just give up and stop trying to manipulate everything. How desperate.
mckara
(1,708 posts)gussmith
(280 posts)This idea has merit: please take time to think about it and comment.
My thought is to have two candidates from each party for president in the general election; why not run A and B? The total of votes for each two candidates of the Dems (A) Hillary and (B) Bernie), and of the Reps. ( (A) Trump and (B) ?) is the winner with the individual getting the most votes for their party as the presidential candidate is the winner of the election. In this way all Americans have a choice and do not have to hold their nose and vote for the very unpopular front runners.
There must be a way to give the larger public more choice outside of the unpopular choices the current party system will provide.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)if Democrats in power want to lose the election by way of a polarizing, untrusted candidate (polling: now less trusted than Trump), they'll STILL do it because they are more afraid of their corporate slush funds ending than doing right by the American people and the future of the Democratic Party, losing mass support of 45-and-under voters who are going for REAL progressive ideology
status quo has got to go
MrMickeysMom
(20,453 posts)Bernie Sanders hasn't put himself in the positions of distrust by so many, while hiding the truth about so much. She is an easy target to attack, based on these positions because there is a high UNTRUTHFUL component in what she has said about her experiences over the last 30 years, even before she was first lady. The most blatant of lies are her positions on issues she wishes people to think she has held.
What is there to attack Bernie Sanders on? Crickets...
Brother Joe Observes
(61 posts)Don't mean squat, especially this far out!