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after the convention, that should be good news. It will only go down from here.

something they have given the important-sounding name "credibility interval" instead of reporting a "margin of error," like traditional scientifically designed surveys of representative samples of voters.

So I view these polls as a parlor game, regardless of whether they seem to favor my preferred candidate or not.

Maybe on the RNC site. Figures.

Fa-real?

Funny how national polls are still nearly pointless until Labor Day.

but right now I'm kind of in agreement with Michael Moore's prediction.

They designed something, for sure, but they didn't use scientifically-accepted, random-survey methods.

Though you might be able to create such a sample frame, the realities of survey fatigue and self-selection have turned the notion of a scientifically rigorous poll into an abstract textbook exercise. In real life, such things no longer exist.

I agree that "credibility margin" is a nonsense term, though.

WAY too much credit by people who ignore his fatalistic tendencies and penchant for drama.

July 2016: Hillary leads Trump by 4 points

Nov 2012: Obama beats Romney by 4 points, wins 332 electoral votes to Mitt's 206

Yeah, I'm not worried.

If that's all he got we should feel lucky.

I was expecting him to be up by five before the convention starts.

but since it's the other way around, it's a dead heat. A statistical tie.


She's gonna wipe the floor with him.

after a convention.

That is pretty unprecedented.

Although it is still disturbing that that many Americans are telling pollsters that they would apparently consider voting for him.

So it's hard to get too disturbed over these polls.

Carter had a lead over Reagan after the convention.

I was expecting a larger bounce too MM is great but he hadn't always been right about everything I don't see it if Hillary has VA CO NV Fl ok do maybe maybe trump wins OH Maybe but hill still wins PA we are good unless all of a sudden next week trump is leading by massive margins in the polls then maybe it's time to really worry I am worried like I was worried four and 8 years ago But damn if Pres O can win with a Muslim sounding name Clinton Kaine can win as well !

Unless Trump really screws up (which is possible), the election should be very close. But, right now, immediately following his convention and the worst month in Clinton's history, Trump should be leading.

He's Prof. Harold Hill in "The Music Man," but totally without the charm. A really good con man would be more subtle.

Republican convention."

Hmmm, in English? I wonder how many Hispanic voters were polled?

Just wait 'til our convention closes, then we'll discuss the spread.

It polled people Monday-Friday of last week. I'm MUCH more interested in the polling done on Friday than I am on Monday.

As in, this is as near as he gets.

Watching him lose is going to be fun.

Without drama/horse race, the media can't sell ads, so they will be making this shit up for another four months.

In other words, it's worth the paper it's not written on.

I've only seen one poll that had her up 10-12 which is the MSN one.

That has being the most favorable pollster for Clinton. She was up by +11 July 2 - 6.

And it's results have been all over the map. It's just a toy to play with, not a scientifically designed survey.

People are idiots.

How can we make sure this doesn't happen again?

We can't. All we can do is get out the vote.

that is very much the lesson.

This country is dumb as shit.

The real headline.

That's how the election is won.

Yes--you can win the popular vote and lose the election.

It's a state by state battle. It's about strategy to secure enough electoral votes. Trump's campaign has been a mess. Clinton has a clear advantage here in terms of organization and strategy. I'm sure that the GOP will be all hands on deck to help Trump now but he's still Trump and who knows what he will listen to or not?

The point is that state polls are more interesting and significant the rest of the way.

I predict his numbers will never be higher and will start to drop shortly.

And since Clinton's convention actually won't be a 4-day clusterfuck, I'm confident she'll get an even bigger boost.

Drumpfs was a lot smaller than normal, to go with his small hands?

The same thing happens nearly every cycle. Third parties poll high early and drop off after the conventions.

In 2012, Johnson was polling near 10%; he received 1% of the vote. He may do slightly better in 2016, but 15-20% isn't happening.

The Rupuks are fractured and can even pull even with Hillary. The DNC hasn't even started yet. When it's over next week, we are going to be ahead 10+ points in the same poll.