Clinton's lead over Trump narrows to less than three points: Reuters/Ipsos
Source: Reuters
(Reuters) - Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.
Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.
Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.
Read more: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10G2BQ
The pundits are getting it wrong. When things go bad for Trump, he just goes more racist and crazy, and it totally fires people up. If he goes batshit crazy and starts burning crosses, he is set to win, since he will get all the coverage.
madaboutharry
(40,212 posts)leftofcool
(19,460 posts)Nope. Not buying it.
I have never been polled. Most of the polls online requires a log in. I do not like log in options because of the online print it leaves and the fallout of junk emails.
Monk06
(7,675 posts)Freepers and other racist sites spam online polls and brag loudly about shifting results
In defense of Reuters/Ipsos their phone polls are very reliable I used to work for Ipson/Read and their phone discipline is impressive
groundloop
(11,519 posts)Also, at the end of the linked article:
An average of polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics showed Clinton ahead of Trump by 6.8 percentage points on Friday, up from 3.9 on Aug. 1.
I suspect that in the next couple of months Hillary's lead will drop somewhat thanks to attack ads etc. (Ben Ga Zi and E-MALE ) GOPer Congress critters will be desperate to attack Hillary any way they can to drive down the Democratic vote, it's their only hope of hanging onto the House and Senate.
sherlocksistah
(51 posts)and they all continue to show Clinton above 70% to Trump's 20+%. So far I trust their odds more than polls because folks actually bet money on who will win. Predictwise has Clinton at 77% and steadily going up.
There's been a spate of negative PR against Clinton's emails just today, noticed it as I scanned the news on major networks. The games they play!
groundloop
(11,519 posts)Obviously Team tRump will gin up any controversy they can about Hillary, regardless if it's a total crock of shit. Anything to momentarily take the spotlight off their Village Idiot.
mjjoe
(260 posts)Better to view this as a single poll among many polls. Better still to focus more on state-by-state polls.
Side note: FiveThirtyEight has three Ipsos polls in the national polling list that overlap with one another:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/
Response to TomCADem (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
chillfactor
(7,576 posts)one minute she is up 9-11 points...the next minute she is up by 3....I am really getting sick and tired of all of these stupid polls.
stopbush
(24,396 posts)To advance the meme that "the polls are all over the place and can't be trusted."
They arise like clockwork whenever a D gets a sizable lead.
MFM008
(19,818 posts)I call BULLSHIT .
coming off the worst week in history for a candidate?
Double bullshit.
Oh great thanks for sharing now I won't sleep well. Cheers mate.
ericson00
(2,707 posts)global1
(25,253 posts)Ryan, McCain & Ayoutte. (sarcasm)
colsohlibgal
(5,275 posts)I don't believe that at all.
Zambero
(8,964 posts)Reuters was an outlier 4 years ago showing Romney ahead, and appears intent to retain its reputation as such.
Loki Liesmith
(4,602 posts)Trust the averages, people.
CreekDog
(46,192 posts)And doesn't have enough Hispanics to statistically measure them (even though they can't because non-random online poll).
There are problems with this poll and they changed the methodology this week, further muddying the reliability of it.
PSPS
(13,603 posts)Nothing but click bait. Trump may win two states tops.
truthisfreedom
(23,148 posts)Barring that, I'm snoozing until the election.
Rose Siding
(32,623 posts)The averages will give more accurate data, if national polls are your thing.
C Moon
(12,213 posts)I remember these lame ass polls from the Obama vs R$ election.
They were so horrible, that R$ thought he'd one and didn't even have a concession speech.
Outliers 101.
crim son
(27,464 posts)when they show our candidate leading.
RBInMaine
(13,570 posts)emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)cstanleytech
(26,298 posts)and thus should only be trusted as much as a Republican politician.
DonCoquixote
(13,616 posts)because he makes them money. The more white knuckles and baited breaths, the better ratings, the more polls taken.
To quote the Federalist papers: "beware those who have a vested interest in disorder."
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)general election.
And that all of the way through the primary process, Hillary Clinton did far less well than Bernie Sanders in a general election match-up with Trump. So why is anyone surprised at this point?
With any luck at all, the Donald will continue to be such an idiot that he will fall and fall and fall in the polls and even in the general election. But the most important point is not to be complacent, to understand that the election is far from won at this point.
YOHABLO
(7,358 posts)I will be so grateful to never see or hear from that idiot again. I know that's not going to happen. He'll reinvent himself I suppose. A new television show or something.
beachbum bob
(10,437 posts)groundloop
(11,519 posts)I couldn't find anything in the linked article stating that this was an online poll, only that it was a sampling of likely voters.
However, this poll does seem to be an outlier since other polls are showing Hillary's lead widening. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141543881
BumRushDaShow
(129,106 posts)http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10G2BQ
Online poll = questionable and what the heck do they mean by "credibility interval"? Guessing it's the European version of saying "margin of error"?
(but as a note, it won't be until about October when people are paying a bit more attention where the polls might have more meaning, good or bad)
Response to TomCADem (Original post)
rjsquirrel This message was self-deleted by its author.
emulatorloo
(44,131 posts)Other polling outfits.
uawchild
(2,208 posts)D23MIURG23
(2,850 posts)The polling average on fivethirtyeight still has her winning by about 7%.
On the Road
(20,783 posts)It's drawing an us-versus-them line.
This is what I believe the party is not understanding in this campaign. Policy is not an issue in this campaign -- it is being driven by identity and tribe, especially on the Republican side, where more voters are part of a loyalty-based part of society.