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TomCADem

(17,390 posts)
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:13 PM Aug 2016

Clinton's lead over Trump narrows to less than three points: Reuters/Ipsos

Source: Reuters

(Reuters) - Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's lead over Republican rival Donald Trump narrowed to less than 3 percentage points, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Friday, down from nearly eight points on Monday.

About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 online poll of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.

Among registered voters over the same period, Clinton held a lead of five percentage points, down from eight percentage points on Monday, according to the poll.

Clinton had pulled well ahead of Trump on the heels of the Democratic National Convention last week, where she became the first woman to accept the U.S. presidential nomination from a major political party.

Read more: http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10G2BQ



The pundits are getting it wrong. When things go bad for Trump, he just goes more racist and crazy, and it totally fires people up. If he goes batshit crazy and starts burning crosses, he is set to win, since he will get all the coverage.
39 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Clinton's lead over Trump narrows to less than three points: Reuters/Ipsos (Original Post) TomCADem Aug 2016 OP
That's crazy. madaboutharry Aug 2016 #1
An online poll which in most cases under samples minorities. leftofcool Aug 2016 #2
I agree trixie Aug 2016 #24
Online polls lack random selection so by definition they are easily spammed and hense worth little Monk06 Aug 2016 #36
Random noise in their sample.... down by a few this week, up by a few next week groundloop Aug 2016 #3
prediction markets way up for Clinton sherlocksistah Aug 2016 #4
yes, and emails are more important than ANYTHING tRump says or does groundloop Aug 2016 #7
One of many data points mjjoe Aug 2016 #5
This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Aug 2016 #6
oh good grief! chillfactor Aug 2016 #8
That's one reason they put out these outliers in the first place. stopbush Aug 2016 #22
Once again MFM008 Aug 2016 #9
Thanks Applan Aug 2016 #10
outlier ericson00 Aug 2016 #11
See - It's Because The RNC Got Trump Under Control & He Endorsed.... global1 Aug 2016 #12
What An Outlier colsohlibgal Aug 2016 #13
Most show from +7 to +15 in favor of HRC Zambero Aug 2016 #14
Polls are useless averages are not Loki Liesmith Aug 2016 #15
Online poll, which means it can't be a random sample CreekDog Aug 2016 #16
Give it up, media. Nobody's buying your fake horse race nonsense. This is a fake "online" poll. PSPS Aug 2016 #17
Yawn. Wake me up when he bites the head off of a live animal onstage. truthisfreedom Aug 2016 #18
CNN says McClatchy Marist has her up by 15 Rose Siding Aug 2016 #19
Yeah right. C Moon Aug 2016 #20
! stopbush Aug 2016 #21
Polls are only reliable crim son Aug 2016 #23
This does not match most other polls out there. It's a FLAWED OUTLIER. RBInMaine Aug 2016 #28
"Polls are only reliable when they are outliers" emulatorloo Aug 2016 #33
I always laugh at online polls as they are ridiculously easy to manipulate cstanleytech Aug 2016 #25
the media and polls have a vested interest in Trump DonCoquixote Aug 2016 #26
Please keep in mind that we are still several months out from the SheilaT Aug 2016 #27
Well the next couple of months can't go fast enough for me. YOHABLO Aug 2016 #29
online poll...really...lets get back to the adult world beachbum bob Aug 2016 #30
Where is it said this is an online poll? groundloop Aug 2016 #32
In the text itself from the OP's link BumRushDaShow Aug 2016 #35
This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Aug 2016 #31
Tom, gonna need to see a few more polls first. Looks like an outlier, need more info from emulatorloo Aug 2016 #34
wtf? n/t uawchild Aug 2016 #37
Its probably an outlier. D23MIURG23 Aug 2016 #38
It's Not Just Firing People Up On the Road Aug 2016 #39

trixie

(867 posts)
24. I agree
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:43 AM
Aug 2016

I have never been polled. Most of the polls online requires a log in. I do not like log in options because of the online print it leaves and the fallout of junk emails.

Monk06

(7,675 posts)
36. Online polls lack random selection so by definition they are easily spammed and hense worth little
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 04:49 PM
Aug 2016

Freepers and other racist sites spam online polls and brag loudly about shifting results

In defense of Reuters/Ipsos their phone polls are very reliable I used to work for Ipson/Read and their phone discipline is impressive

groundloop

(11,519 posts)
3. Random noise in their sample.... down by a few this week, up by a few next week
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:29 PM
Aug 2016

Also, at the end of the linked article:

An average of polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics showed Clinton ahead of Trump by 6.8 percentage points on Friday, up from 3.9 on Aug. 1.

I suspect that in the next couple of months Hillary's lead will drop somewhat thanks to attack ads etc. (Ben Ga Zi and E-MALE ) GOPer Congress critters will be desperate to attack Hillary any way they can to drive down the Democratic vote, it's their only hope of hanging onto the House and Senate.

sherlocksistah

(51 posts)
4. prediction markets way up for Clinton
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:32 PM
Aug 2016

and they all continue to show Clinton above 70% to Trump's 20+%. So far I trust their odds more than polls because folks actually bet money on who will win. Predictwise has Clinton at 77% and steadily going up.
There's been a spate of negative PR against Clinton's emails just today, noticed it as I scanned the news on major networks. The games they play!

groundloop

(11,519 posts)
7. yes, and emails are more important than ANYTHING tRump says or does
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:43 PM
Aug 2016


Obviously Team tRump will gin up any controversy they can about Hillary, regardless if it's a total crock of shit. Anything to momentarily take the spotlight off their Village Idiot.

mjjoe

(260 posts)
5. One of many data points
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:33 PM
Aug 2016

Better to view this as a single poll among many polls. Better still to focus more on state-by-state polls.

Side note: FiveThirtyEight has three Ipsos polls in the national polling list that overlap with one another:

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/

Response to TomCADem (Original post)

chillfactor

(7,576 posts)
8. oh good grief!
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:47 PM
Aug 2016

one minute she is up 9-11 points...the next minute she is up by 3....I am really getting sick and tired of all of these stupid polls.

stopbush

(24,396 posts)
22. That's one reason they put out these outliers in the first place.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:14 AM
Aug 2016

To advance the meme that "the polls are all over the place and can't be trusted."

They arise like clockwork whenever a D gets a sizable lead.

global1

(25,253 posts)
12. See - It's Because The RNC Got Trump Under Control & He Endorsed....
Fri Aug 5, 2016, 11:59 PM
Aug 2016

Ryan, McCain & Ayoutte. (sarcasm)

Zambero

(8,964 posts)
14. Most show from +7 to +15 in favor of HRC
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 12:10 AM
Aug 2016

Reuters was an outlier 4 years ago showing Romney ahead, and appears intent to retain its reputation as such.

CreekDog

(46,192 posts)
16. Online poll, which means it can't be a random sample
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 12:50 AM
Aug 2016

And doesn't have enough Hispanics to statistically measure them (even though they can't because non-random online poll).

There are problems with this poll and they changed the methodology this week, further muddying the reliability of it.

PSPS

(13,603 posts)
17. Give it up, media. Nobody's buying your fake horse race nonsense. This is a fake "online" poll.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 12:53 AM
Aug 2016

Nothing but click bait. Trump may win two states tops.

truthisfreedom

(23,148 posts)
18. Yawn. Wake me up when he bites the head off of a live animal onstage.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 12:57 AM
Aug 2016

Barring that, I'm snoozing until the election.

C Moon

(12,213 posts)
20. Yeah right.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 01:02 AM
Aug 2016

I remember these lame ass polls from the Obama vs R$ election.
They were so horrible, that R$ thought he'd one and didn't even have a concession speech.

cstanleytech

(26,298 posts)
25. I always laugh at online polls as they are ridiculously easy to manipulate
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 03:31 AM
Aug 2016

and thus should only be trusted as much as a Republican politician.

DonCoquixote

(13,616 posts)
26. the media and polls have a vested interest in Trump
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 03:34 AM
Aug 2016

because he makes them money. The more white knuckles and baited breaths, the better ratings, the more polls taken.

To quote the Federalist papers: "beware those who have a vested interest in disorder."

 

SheilaT

(23,156 posts)
27. Please keep in mind that we are still several months out from the
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 03:48 AM
Aug 2016

general election.

And that all of the way through the primary process, Hillary Clinton did far less well than Bernie Sanders in a general election match-up with Trump. So why is anyone surprised at this point?

With any luck at all, the Donald will continue to be such an idiot that he will fall and fall and fall in the polls and even in the general election. But the most important point is not to be complacent, to understand that the election is far from won at this point.

 

YOHABLO

(7,358 posts)
29. Well the next couple of months can't go fast enough for me.
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 07:01 AM
Aug 2016

I will be so grateful to never see or hear from that idiot again. I know that's not going to happen. He'll reinvent himself I suppose. A new television show or something.

groundloop

(11,519 posts)
32. Where is it said this is an online poll?
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 09:17 AM
Aug 2016

I couldn't find anything in the linked article stating that this was an online poll, only that it was a sampling of likely voters.

However, this poll does seem to be an outlier since other polls are showing Hillary's lead widening. http://www.democraticunderground.com/10141543881

BumRushDaShow

(129,106 posts)
35. In the text itself from the OP's link
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 11:56 AM
Aug 2016
About 42 percent of likely voters favored Clinton, to Trump's 39 percent, according to the July 31-Aug. 4 [font color="red"]online poll[/font] of 1,154 likely voters. The poll had a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, meaning that the results suggest the race is roughly even.

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN10G2BQ


Online poll = questionable and what the heck do they mean by "credibility interval"? Guessing it's the European version of saying "margin of error"?

(but as a note, it won't be until about October when people are paying a bit more attention where the polls might have more meaning, good or bad)

Response to TomCADem (Original post)

emulatorloo

(44,131 posts)
34. Tom, gonna need to see a few more polls first. Looks like an outlier, need more info from
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:02 AM
Aug 2016

Other polling outfits.

On the Road

(20,783 posts)
39. It's Not Just Firing People Up
Sat Aug 6, 2016, 10:22 PM
Aug 2016

It's drawing an us-versus-them line.

This is what I believe the party is not understanding in this campaign. Policy is not an issue in this campaign -- it is being driven by identity and tribe, especially on the Republican side, where more voters are part of a loyalty-based part of society.


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