from those polls to God's ear.

That math in Texas is getting much harder for Trump.

Texas is about 40% with some kind of Hispanic background.

It's still shifting. In about 8 years time, it may well look like New Mexico demographics ... and the present form of the GOP's quest for the White House will be forever dead with Texas 38 electoral votes lost.

It's twilight time in American history for those racists.

Georgia is now about 10% Hispanic too.

Tim Kaine's español is pretty damn good and I can see him going all over America
and into some really red states such as Nebraska that have growing Hispanic populations
and making the republicans job of staying power very tough on them.

not that I'll be pointing that out to my rural white neighbors, bless their hearts. Welcome to Georgia, Senator Kaine. Please bring your harmonica.

Texas will flip if she wins by 10 or more.

The campaign is saving so much $$$ by going dark in what were once battleground states that we definitely should put money into Texas. Lots of electoral votes there and a handful of thug districts that could be turned.

South Carolina also. You get all three and it adds up to the same EVs as Texas.

Georgia
Arizona
South Carolina (black vote)
Mississippi (black vote)
Missouri
Indiana (Clinton staff opened office there recently)
and then maybe
Texas

Louisiana may be vulnerable with large black vote too

Florida
Ohio
Iowa
Nevada
North Carolina
all remain as battlegrounds with Clinton ahead

If a Clinton scandal or Trump quitting doesn't happen, she could win 400+ EV

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo#odds

BTW Ohio done for Trump.


As of 8/12/16 Trump has no office in Cincinnati, OH SW OH is the reddest part of the state.

I am really thinking that Trump's campaign is one big scam and I wonder how much money
he and his family are skimming off the top or pulling in on other scams such as Ivanka
pimping the dress she wore @ the RNC?

Trump's other SW OH offices are located in county republican HQs.


http://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics/blogs/2016/08/12/trump-opens-new-ohio-offices-none-hamilton-county/88631692/

Fewer than 90 days before the election, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced several offices in Ohio, but none are in key Hamilton County and many are inside county Republican Party headquarters.

Democrats have been critical of Trump's slow-to-organize ground game in the all-important swing state of Ohio. An internal email acquired by The Enquirer showed the campaign had yet to appoint key local leaders or open a campaign office in Hamilton County, a key swing county. No Republican, and few Democrats, have won the presidency without winning Ohio.

Amid that criticism, the Trump campaign announced 15 new campaign offices Friday. Last week, the campaign announced the opening of its headquarters in Columbus and the hiring of several key staff members, including a spokesman. Republican National Committee organizers have been in Ohio since 2013.

polled them in months

Louisiana's large black vote isn't going to help Trump.

http://www.electionprojection.com/latest-polls/louisiana-presidential-polls-trump-vs-clinton.php
http://electiongraphs.com/2016ec/polldata.php?Dem=Clinton&Rep=Trump&State=LA
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/la/louisiana_trump_vs_clinton-5696.html
HuffPost Pollster did not have a chart.

The pollsters haven't really caught on and adjusted for what is happening.

I'll bet a recent objective poll wouldn't have Louisiana solid red - more like a lean.

Trump is in desperate shape - more than twice as bad as McCain or Romney - looking like a 1984 landslide.

Keeps shooting himself, the avalanche will continue to build, plus some dullards will wake up and come to their senses, and perhaps he'll tweet a concession...I love it.

Last edited Tue Aug 16, 2016, 05:36 PM - Edit history (1)

Although Gohmert's district is home to the all American dumb ass.

The main thing that bothers me every time I see or hear of this Neanderthal is not just him. It's his constituents! It's the voters in his district, who somehow find him fit to send back to Congress from the 2004 election on. What the ever-lovin' fuck is wrong with THEM?

I blame the voters there for this dismal piece of hopelessly regressive Bronze-Age shit afflicting all of us.

That's the Deep Piney Woods area of East Central Texas abutting the Shreveport, LA area. Full of klansmen and 2nd amendment freaks, people holding dear to the Old Confederacy, and definitely pro-White Nation. He may be there until that mentality dies with the haters who vote for him.

chills to think about it!

I was in grad school in Austin when Poppy Bush started offering dirt cheap land and huge tax breaks to corporations in other states. By the time he was VP, there were more out-of-state license plates in Austin than Lone Star ones, and the LBJ Texas I had grown up in was disappearing rapidly.

I'd love to see Texas evolve OUT of republi-CON hands!

should assume their vote doesn't count. Living in Texas, historically my vote hasn't counted, but somtimes history can be made.

Trump is going to regret going so negative against Cruz, though. He's a New Yorker with not a lot of pure conservative values (corporate, yes, not conservative).

Yeah, not holding my breath. But one can hope! Maybe after this round in November, it'll be more purple than red. As the demographics shift, I suspect the blue tint will come right on its heels.

Texas is going to shift blue very soon anyway because of demographics if the GOP doesn't change course and change their policies. But seeing it go from "lock for the Republicans" to being pink is just bananas. It'd be like if California flipped Republican one election.

And California is NOT going to flip to the CONS. Not this cycle, not next cycle, not for the foreseeable future. Especially considering OUR demographics out here are shifting, too, and in all the directions favorable to Dems.

The libertarian tech bros keep trying to split up the state though I'm worried that they'll be successful!

"Oh, okay. I'm glad I had this idea."

v

I can think of at least four very expensive media markets.

This may be a good moment to mention one of my own favorite Texans - the wonderful Helen of "Margaret and Helen."

Trump is a chump. https://margaretandhelen.com/2016/08/16/trump-is-a-chump/

...Give-'em-hell Helen.

is enough to get a fire started under the Democratic voters who think their vote is useless. I had hoped, as weird as this election cycle has been, for HRC to behind just 10 points going into election day--but 6..6 gives us at least a shot at a possible turn around.

I think because of the changing demographics, it will eventually happen. Not if, but when.

I did read recently that Hillary has - I think - a dozen or so campaign offices up and running in Texas already, while I think Trump has one.

Yep...there are offices in Austin, Dallas, San Antonio and Houston. I'm sure there are more. My county is in touch with the one in Dallas. So she does have an anchor here so to speak. Yea!

the wooden stake driven thru the heart for the GOP

Last edited Tue Aug 16, 2016, 03:49 PM - Edit history (1)

Imagine a Democrat winning California, Texas, and New York.

California and New York are in the bag for Team Blue, and I think Florida is too (at least on the Presidential level). If Texas flipped to blue, Republicans would be fucked - there is literally NO path to victory for them without Texas. After the 4 big states comes Illinois, Pennsylvania and Ohio. Illinois is blue and Pennsylvania pretty much is (again, for President). The GOP's biggest prize would then be Ohio! We can dream!

There were a lot of dixiecrats back then just couldn't handle civil rights. so they went where they could continue their segregated thinking, turning those southern states red.

The day Texas goes blue = Hell freezing over.

maybe not so much.

You know it! She is greatly missed by many folks

Not just for this election but for the future of the dem party. Go Hillary! Turn USA blue!

Trump was exceptionally nasty to Cruz, the favored son of Texas.

Trump is also a brash NYer and not remotely consistently conservative enough for the purists in Texas.

And things like Ivanka and Chelsea being best buds irk them, etc.

Long story short, don't put too much into this.

Texas sure as hell is pissed at Trump for how he treated Bush and Cruz, BUT they sure as hell wont vote for Clinton.

Ha. That certainly adds to it.

But, yes, Texans are mad at Trump. It's not turning blue. People will just stay home, I would think.

I was in Austin recently. It was a strange collection of Bernie supporters and Cruz supporters at a meeting for a Jewish charity.

The big hit was when someone brought out "Vote Giant Meteor 2016 -- End it Now" signs.

They were being bought by both ends of the spectrum.

Been saying this for 6 months

I had hopes for Wendy Davis, and she was thoroughly trounced - even losing among Texas women, and Abbott was very open about coming for your uterus. Yeah, she didn't run the best campaign, but the red stain is still strong here.

Although I've also heard it's not so much the GOP as it is lots of non-voters content to let others control their future. To turn Texas blue, Team D needs to hammer old-fashioned GOTV efforts.

I have manage to convince a few of my republican coworkers that Hillary is a great candidate. I have got the same response from all of them. They tell me that they didn't know most of the things she has accomplished. Hopefully more will come around before Nov

I'm not sure it will happen this time around, but be assured: happen it will. There's no denying social and ethnic trends in the state.

So those of you who are so fond of accusing the entire population of Texas of being a bunch of Rick Perry wannabes, those of you who mindlessly group millions of Texas Democrats with the current hyper-conservative, hyper-male, hyper-white power structure: get it the fuck out of your systems and find a new target for your brain-dead prejudice.