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blue-wave

(4,353 posts) Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:42 AM Oct 2016

Trump's incredible shrinking map; Six of the 11 battleground states are now in Hillary Clinton's poc

Source: politico.com

In June, POLITICO identified 11 key battleground states — totaling 146 electoral votes — that would effectively decide the presidential election in November. A new examination of polling data and strategic campaign ad buys indicates that six of those 11 are now comfortably in Hillary Clinton’s column.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135

As new polling rolls in after the Al Smith Dinner fiasco, these numbers will look even better for Hillary. Donald keeps digging that hole deeper and deeper.

18 replies

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Trump's incredible shrinking map; Six of the 11 battleground states are now in Hillary Clinton's poc (Original Post) blue-wave Oct 2016 OP

May the blue wave cover the country. AmericanActivist Oct 2016 #1

Thanks! blue-wave Oct 2016 #2

270towin exboyfil Oct 2016 #3

Electoral-vote.com has Hillary at 350 MiniMe Oct 2016 #13

The 11 battleground states are: (and HRC is gonna win every one of them) Botany Oct 2016 #4

Out of the 11, Trump only has realistic shots at North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa right now. stevenleser Oct 2016 #5

If OH is close we might not know until several weeks later, due to absentee ballots. LisaL Oct 2016 #6

Good to know. nt stevenleser Oct 2016 #12

Could you explain that? I thought that absentee ballots are counted on election day. StevieM Oct 2016 #15

Trump has all but quit in North Carolina and I live in OH and HRC is gonna crush Trump here Botany Oct 2016 #7

Here is why I think what I do about Ohio stevenleser Oct 2016 #8

OH has some people who are as racist/red neck/fundy Christian as any place in the country ... Botany Oct 2016 #11

"How stupid are the people of Iowa" said Trump HelenWheels Oct 2016 #16

I think that guy that looks like humbled_opinion Oct 2016 #9

I keep looking @ the 538 map and trying to think what needs to happen to link blue states ..... Botany Oct 2016 #10

I wish we we're polling better in IA and OH sotheyclaimDem Oct 2016 #14

Message auto-removed Name removed Oct 2016 #17

Please let Trump Coolest Ranger Oct 2016 #18

AmericanActivist

(1,019 posts)

1. May the blue wave cover the country.

Reply to blue-wave (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:50 AM

Oct 2016

Welcome to DU blue-wave

blue-wave

(4,353 posts)

2. Thanks!

Reply to AmericanActivist (Reply #1)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 06:52 AM

Oct 2016

Glad to be part of the family!

exboyfil

(17,863 posts)

3. 270towin

Reply to blue-wave (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 07:13 AM

Oct 2016

Default competitive map shows WI as toss up, and Clinton votes for states assigned at 256 (it would be 266 with WI). Also it shows Maine as toss up and throws the one electoral vote to Clinton

If you change these two items (add WI and ME and turn the one ME electoral vote to undecided) then you have 268. At that point Trump needs to sweep the state board (FL, OH, NC, and NV) along with the contested red states (IA, GA, AZ, UT). He also needs the NE electoral vote and the ME electoral vote to avoid a tie.

MiniMe

(21,716 posts)

13. Electoral-vote.com has Hillary at 350

Reply to exboyfil (Reply #3)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 01:57 PM

Oct 2016

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Botany

(70,508 posts)

4. The 11 battleground states are: (and HRC is gonna win every one of them)

Reply to blue-wave (Original post)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 07:45 AM

Oct 2016

Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/2016-election/swing-states#ixzz4NibvCZUd
Follow us: @politico on Twitter | Politico on Facebook

And HRC is gonna win @ least one of the following states Arizona, Texas, Georgia, Utah and or Indiana.

And HRC has a long long shot of winning Missouri, Alaska, KY, and or South Carolina.

Trump's firewall = OK, WY, ID, WV, TN, and AL

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/ce/ElectoralCollege1964.svg

Can Trump do worse then Goldwater in 64?

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)

5. Out of the 11, Trump only has realistic shots at North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa right now.

Reply to Botany (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 08:46 AM

Oct 2016

And if I had to bet, I would say he was going to lose North Carolina, win Iowa and Ohio would be so close we might not know until a day or two later.

That leaves Hillary winning 9 of 11 battleground states pretty reliably IMHO.

LisaL

(44,973 posts)

6. If OH is close we might not know until several weeks later, due to absentee ballots.

Reply to stevenleser (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:06 AM

Oct 2016

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)

12. Good to know. nt

Reply to LisaL (Reply #6)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:59 AM

Oct 2016

StevieM

(10,500 posts)

15. Could you explain that? I thought that absentee ballots are counted on election day.

Reply to LisaL (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 22, 2016, 08:12 PM

Oct 2016

Is it different in Ohio than in other states?

Botany

(70,508 posts)

7. Trump has all but quit in North Carolina and I live in OH and HRC is gonna crush Trump here

Reply to stevenleser (Reply #5)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 09:18 AM

Oct 2016

Trump has picked a fight w/the chair of the Ohio Rep. party and Gov. Kasich really
does not like Trump too. The Cincinnati Enquirer and the Columbus Disptach have both
endorsed Clinton and neither paper has endorsed a Democrat for many many years.

Of course I might be wrong.

http://www.politicususa.com/2016/10/07/trump-collapse-campaign-cancels-ads-florida-ohio-north-carolina.html

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)

8. Here is why I think what I do about Ohio

Reply to Botany (Reply #7)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:04 AM

Oct 2016

See http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/ and click to sort by the most recent polls. Trump's showing in the Ohio polls is very competitive. Another look is here: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5970.html

I think that the open warfare with the Ohio Republican party and the general problems Trump is having now plus Hillary's ground game will likely tilt the advantage to her but it is still going to be close.

Botany

(70,508 posts)

11. OH has some people who are as racist/red neck/fundy Christian as any place in the country ...

Reply to stevenleser (Reply #8)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:51 AM

Oct 2016

.... but Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Toledo are now solid blue and Trump's
anti woman "stuff" will strip some of female vote in the majority white suburbs too.

I might be wrong but I think HRC will win OH by >4 points.

One thing that is very real in OH is the years of anti Hillary Clinton lies and FOX/Rush type propaganda
have settled into the brains of many men here. The stupid shit I have heard @ my local bar is
mind numbing ..... You know she let those people die in Benghazi.

HelenWheels

(2,284 posts)

16. "How stupid are the people of Iowa" said Trump

Reply to stevenleser (Reply #5)

Sun Oct 23, 2016, 11:08 AM

Oct 2016

humbled_opinion

(4,423 posts)

9. I think that guy that looks like

Reply to Botany (Reply #4)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:30 AM

Oct 2016

an alien will win UT...

Botany

(70,508 posts)

10. I keep looking @ the 538 map and trying to think what needs to happen to link blue states .....

Reply to humbled_opinion (Reply #9)

Fri Oct 21, 2016, 10:41 AM

Oct 2016

..... coast to coast. We will have the west coast and the east coast is blocked by S. Carolina
but the Atlantic to the Pacific is blocked by the Plains states and Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana.

And yes Utah is a long long shot.