Thanks for the update, muriel. We're really fortunate to have several experts on Britain's sophisticated and truly complex politics right here on DU.

Now, kindly tell us: what comes next?

If it is, then pretty much every seat counts. If the figures are roughly like that, then the Tories should get first crack at forming a government, because they're far closer to winning a vote for a programme in parliament. They might get support from Unionists in Northern Ireland, or they might just put it forward and see if everyone is willing to vote against it.

If Labour get just a few more, they might persuade the SNP and Lib Dems to say they'll allow them to start a government.

A big news day today, on both sides of the pond.

Major immigrant increases, of whom will be eligible to vote Socialist or Labour in the next snap election. The elimination of Farage, who should be investigated and jailed for life. A firm and unalterable commitment to eliminate fossil fuels for good by 2030. Finally, a ban on inviting Donald Trump to Great Britain for any official capacity whatsoever.

For starters...

Looking at your DU user name, Fluke a Snooker - I think this could exactly describe what Theresa May has done. She went from +20% in the opinion polls 4 weeks ago to a potential hung parliament and a possible Jeremy Corbyn PM. She pulled a fluke and snookered herself.

Major immigrant increase, not going to happen. Farage, would be nice to deport him to the former colonies of the Americas (even though I live here now). Banning fossil fuels is a nice target. But I want to have DJT in #10... with Corbyn. Watch DJT squirm. And then send DJT off home to ... an impeachment hearing.

who would count as 'neutral', so 625 is what you need for a majority. In practice, a couple of seats less or so, since Sinn Fein don't take their seats in parliament (since you have to swear or affirm allegiance to "the Queen and her successors&quot .

The point is that there are 649 seats plus the speaker - and the speaker doesn't vote. So 625 would be larger than the remaining 624. As I said, Sinn Fein don't take their seats either (and they've already confirmed tonight that still applies), so actually you're looking at 623 or 622, depending on how Sinn Fein do.

is if they had someone like David Miliband leading them they probably would've beaten the Tories. But as it stands, it's looking like Theresa May's power play has backfired on her and it serves her right.

The Labour right and the PLP can whine all they want about Corbyn, but this is the best showing for Labour in a LONG time and it's due to Corbyn and his anti-austerity manifesto. Miliband and the Labour right would have guaranteed that 100+ seat majority for the Tories. This ain't 1997 any more. That "Tory lite" shit is deader than a doornail.

And Corbs did this after having to fight off the PLP sabotage ever since he was elected INSTEAD of being able to just concentrate on the Tories.

But I expect this to be the spin from the Labour right. "Yeah, Corbyn did OK, but we could have done better". BULLSHIT!

I like Corbyn - no bullshit, no u-turns, he says what he means and sticks to it.

I would hope the Blairites in the parliament will now give him the respect and support he deserves.

This election represents the first time since 1997 that Labour will gain votes, and that is above all thanks to Corbyn and not the Blairites and PLP who spent the last two years on the attack against him.

Under Corbyn Labour is also likely to see a 10-point growth over the Milliband total.

So the statement is ridiculous.

But apparently nothing deters the small but influential group of Corbyn haters in the Labour camp from inventing new bullshit to sling against him.

but we've only a few hours now before we find out for real.

Newcastle-upon-Tyne has just declared - first in the country - Labour's Chi Onwurah holds his seat with a 2% swing from the Tories.

Labour's Bridget Phillipson also holds Sunderland, though with a reduced majority (swing to Tories).

It's going to be an interesting night ...

The BBC has a seat-by-seat guide to what went into the prediction

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373

it has Tories gaining 4 in Scotland, Labour 1, 4 Lib Dem. And then a load "too close to call", but with some percentage chances for each. I suppose the -22 for the SNP is the median combination.

Also that the resulting large margin of error means the true SNP result could lie between 21 and 50 seats!

Taking a look at just my own constituency (Argyll & Bute), their criteria for "too close to call" seem rather weird:

"Argyll & Bute, the Conservatives have a 4% chance of victory, the Liberal Democrats have a 36% chance of victory, the SNP has a 60% chance of victory"

There is a danger to the SNP from tactical voting here (I guess Tory to Lib Dem mainly, possibly some Labour, insignificant UKIP vote last time, so not a factor), but to overturn the previous SNP majority, turnout from the tactical voters would have to be truly impressive and their voting very coherent.

Both Labour gains:

Rutherglen & Hamilton West (majority of 265, apparent big loss of votes from the SNP to the Tories there)

East Kilbride (no details yet)

Both used to be thought of as Labour strongholds before the 2015 election. The swing from Labour to SNP at the last general election was astronomic. Neither of the above SNP ex-MPs were particularly high-profile.

The irony is that post-election analysis may thank a "Corbyn surge", but Scottish Labour is generally antagonistic to Corbyn.

But hey, a seat's a seat.

Some SNP holds coming in, but they'll be pretty thick and fast now.

ETA: Mhairi Black fans may be glad to hear she's held on to her seat (the exit poll said she'd lose it).

Link to tweet

That's one the exit poll got right, but it's looking pretty unreliable in other seats. The big picture UK-wide is looking re plausible, though.

The Tories took Angus Robertson's seat. (The constituency was heavily Leave voting in the Brexit referendum.)

Robertson was the SNP leader at Westminster, is deputy party leader, and by general agreement has been a terrific performer at prime minister's questions.

are TOTALLY Blariites. Their Tory lite policies were the reason that the SNP gained what they did. They're a drag on Labour in general.

Their leader Kezia Dugdale was utterly scathing about Corbyn, and their formerly only MP in Scotland resigned from the shadow cabinet during the attempted coup against Corbyn, but they've been embarrassed into silence about him since then.

I don't know much about the six extra MPs they've elected yet, except the one who beat the SNP's Alex Salmond is also a member of the Scottish Parliament and a professional soccer linesman who's been heavily criticized before now for missing votes because he was officiating at matches.

There were two safe Labour seats that they discussed the Tories did better than expected in compared with the exist poll.

And there was a safe Tory seat that Labour did better than expected

Trump is about to lose his only friend in Europe... if it's any consolation he'll probably join her in retirement soon (of course, he'll retire to a federal penitentiary)!

I don't think this is the result May was expecting when she called for an election.

But I guess we'll see how the final tally adds up.

The weather was pretty bad today, not that I consider that any excuse.

There appears to have been a Corbyn effect here, but Scottish Labour's a different beast to Corbynite Labour.

Last week, the Scottish Labour leader, Kezia Dugdale, was encouraging Labour voters to vote tactically for the Tories in certain seats. The election was fought largely on pro- or anti-independence grounds, and other parties took advantage of a lot of confusion about what powers the Scottish (SNP-controlled) Parliament has, and what powers Westminster has over Scotland.

I still expect the SNP to be the largest third party UK-wide, barring more disasters. The exit poll model hasn't performed too well in Scotland. The overall end picture may not be too far off, but at individual seat level, it's all over the shop.

It will be ironic if the UK unionism of Scottish Labour leads to enough Scottish Tory MPs to let the Conservatives hang on UK-wide.

Mind you, if it's as close a result as it looks like it might be, we could see another election by the autumn (oh joy).

In the last four years we've had the Scottish referendum, a general election, the Brexit referendum, nationwide council elections, now this.

That could account for some of the patchiness in the results (and the rather poor standard of the public debate at times).

And Nigel Farage has been talking tonight about the possible need for another Brexit referendum ...

Link to tweet

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Jonathan Savage @JSavageTweets

As has been pointed out to me - Scottish Conservative MPs won't be able to vote on English laws per EVEL. Affects any majority in practice

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EVEL = English Votes for English Laws. Last year, the Tories passed a law forbidding Scottish MPs voting in Parliament on certain issues that cover England (and Wales: for a lot of purposes they're a unit) but not Scotland. At the time, they had only one Scottish Conservative MP, and the SNP had 56.

So this would make it even harder for the Tories to exercise a working majority on on a whole range of issues.

The same law makes the Labour and Lib Dem gains in Scotland, along with the SNP, of less use to UK Labour and any loose coalition, of course.

because they use a paper ballot system.

Most countries if exit polling is off by a significant amount there are accusations and investigations on election fraud. In the US exit polling is sometimes so off, and usually in crucial districts which of course use hackable voting machines, and its always the Republican candidate that surprises everyone and wins regardless of a lop-sided exit poll that shows it going the other way.

I do not for the life of me know why there is not a concerted effort by Democrats to return to paper balloting. Sometimes the simplest solution is the best.

With Senate voting, it can often take a week or more to get final results, but that's okay, because we know the vote can't be tampered with.

Only one or two may be more close and take longer to decide and recount, but for the most part we know the general results that evening. Why would any country rely on hackable machines to decide their democracy is baffling. And more so the Democratic party which is usually always on the losing end.

http://www.bbc.com/news/live/election-2017-40171454

"I don't know how Theresa May can survive this."

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/news/dup-could-exert-significant-influence-in-hung-parliament-35806111.html

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Also:

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The forecast is Con 319 (just up from 318 - I turned on the TV only to see Zac Goldsmith win back the seat he lost in the by-election. By a majority of just 45. Grrr.), and with Sinn Fein on 7, the effective number needed to win a vote is 322. The DUP has 10 seats (SDLP and UUP both wiped out in Northern Ireland). There's no way the other parties can get more Commons votes than the Tories without the DUP, and that's not going to happen.

If May goes, then the next Tory leader (not Johnson, please, non-existent God, not Johnson) has the ability to stop anything in parliament if Corbyn were to form a government. But a different Tory PM would have the "no mandate" hanging over him (her? I very much doubt Amber Rudd could win - she could easily lose any new election in her seat) far worse than May ever did.

The people have spoken. And they've brought in the result that was expected in 2015 - far fewer SNP, Tories largest party but not a majority, Lib Dems not quite so wiped out as happened (but with Clegg gone, and Cable back). But meanwhile, we've ended up with Brexit.

won't say much more than she did at her acceptance speech last night and she has "no intention of resigning" and is looking to form a government - a holding pattern, basically. Who knows? She's the U-turn queen (and to be honest, and I don't mean this sarkily, she hasn't been looking well for a while).

If they involve the DUP, then the idea I've seen bandied about is that the cost of their support is likely to be a much softer vision of brexit (since they've woken up and smelt the coffee about what a hard brexit would mean for Northern Ireland). They've also got a lot of baggage in terms of their other policies, but are hardly likely to be happy at the cavalier way the Tories have been treating Northern Ireland's interests in the run-up to brexit. Also, unless (50% of) the national mood has changed, any softening of the brexit line might risk rekindling UKIP and haemorrhaging voters.

And I've seen hints at a loss of nerve among the more ardent brexiters in cabinet. Even Farage has been suggesting that there might need to be a second referendum.

May stood on the basis that the country was "coming together" and that she somehow felt a lack of support in parliament (beats me why, as she's gotten her won way on just about everything to do with brexit - the Lords have been much more of a thorn in her side, and they weren't on the ballot): "Every vote for me makes me stronger." She sought a personal mandate, and she hasn't got a clear one. That's humiliating.

The Tories can't abide losers, and although not an outright loss, this can't be spun into anything less than a disastrously massive own goal, and one that's cost some of their cronies seats they assumed were safe, and left others with their majorities in tatters.

The knives are out already for May and her special advisers Fiona Hill and Nick Timothy (without whom it's reputed she can't function), and David Davies is taking the blame for pushing hardest for the election in cabinet. Rudd only just squeaked back into her seat, but she's an obvious contender. Boris will Boris, and has been reported to already be taking soundings about a leadership bid. Goldsmith's back in parliament, as you say, so he could put himself in the frame.

One twist on all this is EVEL, and it's not just a problem for the Tories. Unless they repeal it (which I think extremely unilkely), the DUP can't vote on English-only matters, nor can all the new intake of Scottish MPs, and nor can the Welsh MPs. It doesn't come out at zero-sum, as there are those 46 non-Tory Scottish MPs, but it's hardly a position of strength on which to be forming a government with the brexit clock ticking away.

Then there's the prospect of another election sooner rather than later, which seems inevitable. That would knock the brexit timetable even further back. As I've said before, the logical thing to do would have been to hold the election first, then pull the trigger, but what do I know?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2017/results/england (love the graphic there on the party gains - the Yorkshire Party gained 0.1% (up to 20,958 votes), and so is the 3rd biggest gainer in England!)

They have 294 out of 529 seats declared, with another 4 to come (I can see 3 Cornish seats still to declare, and Kensington; the pattern is the Tories will get all of those). That also gives them an absolute majority for an England+Wales vote.

It would cause a real headache for a Labour minority govt, though.

But given the terms on which this election was fought, it's not exactly a comfortable position for any party to be courting allies they've effectively disenfranchised and whose interests in the brexit process have so far been ignored. (The SNP did have a policy of abstaining on English-only matters anyway before EVEL, which I think they only broke for the foxhunting vote after a great deal of internal debate and external pressure.)

All in all, it's been quite a skirmish and there are casualties I'm very sad about, but things have gotten more interesting again all of a sudden.

The anti-May media drumbeat is building fast right now (seeing today's headlines in the Tory press and listening to the BBC coverage at this very moment). I don't think she's got the guts or enough trusted allies (indeed, any?) in the party to tough it out.

it applies at committee stages, but in theory all MPs get to vote on the third reading.

The situation's as clear as mud, but May HAS apparently lined up a limited informal deal with the DUP (until we find out in due course that she hasn't, if things go the way everything else has in the last 24 hours). Just how limited and informal is probably still being thrashed out (or not).

Whoever said it made the mistake of trusting what it said in the DUP's manifesto:

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But now the results are in:

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Link to tweet

This is absolutely massive.

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Given the contradictions in the DUP manifesto (even more hardline "have your cake and eat it" than the Tories) and the contrary stories running around, it's not clear that Nigel Dodds' words above reflect their final position, but it does point up the confusion and tensions around this fudge.

It doesn't sound very strong and stable to me. Wasn't there a bit of a fuss at the idea that the SNP could hold the country hostage by backing Labour in the event of a hung parliament? And about Corbyn talking to terrorists in the past?

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So, who are the DUP?

The Democratic Unionist Party now look like the Tories preferred coalition partners. The DUP, which is the biggest Unionist (ie pro-UK) party in Northern Ireland, are often treated as though they are just the same as the other Unionist party they have essentially replaced – the Ulster Unionists. But while the UUP have a long running relationship with the Tories, and are a centre right party, the DUP are another thing entirely. The idea that they are near power in Westminster should worry us all. Here are some things you need to know.

Theresa May's new partners in government have strong historical links with Loyalist paramilitary groups. Specifically, the terrorist group Ulster Resistance was founded by a collection of people who went on to be prominent DUP politicians. Peter Robinson, for example, who was DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s first minister until last year, was an active member of Ulster Resistance. The group’s activities included collaborating with other terrorist groups including the Ulster Volunteer Force, to smuggle arms into the UK, such as RPG rocket launchers.

Of course, Northern Ireland has moved towards peace, and the DUP, like their opponents in Sinn Fein, have rescinded violence. As part of that normalisation, the fact that parties which include people who have rescinded violence can be brought into the democratic process is a good thing. But for the Tories to end an election campaign which they spent attacking Corbyn for his alleged links to former Northern Irish terrorists by going into coalition with a party founded by former Northern Irish terrorists would be a deep irony.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/adam-ramsay/so-who-are-dup

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Is it her call?

I think Tories can't force her out of party leadership until their annual conference. And as the biggest party in the Commons (bigger than Labour+SNP+Lib Dem+Plaid Cymru+Greens) she gets first chance to form a government. The DUP seem to have agreed to give the basic support for confidence motions, so she's now been to the palace and got the 'permission' to form a government.

It looked for a while as though May would make massive gains; instead she lost seats and the overall majority.

PS in my constituency we ousted our Tory twit of an MP!