I don't really see any senator wanting to be tagged as the 50th and final vote. They'll all vote for it or all but the hardcore tax cutters/govt haters will vote against it.

unless some Democrat or Independent defects (unlikely)

I think it is going to be 50-50 with Pence breaking the tie. The two most vulnerable Republicans in 2018 will get a pass.

assuming Heller gets a pass, will want to be that 50th vote? Collins? Murkowski? Portman? Capito-Moore? Even Toomey will have to consider that the harshest cuts will come just as he runs for re-election in 5 years.

Who is going to get them? Those coming from it is not severe enough are going to be on board. Those the other direction worrying about reelection in 2018?

Heller
Flake

It is going to pass.

The statements from republicans are all kabuki theater. It gives the ones on the fence an out to go back to their states and say "Hey, we polished this turd of a bill and made it real shiny".

After voting to repeal 50 odd times, they can do nothing but pass something that changes the ACA.

They have to put a W on the board irrespective of what it is.

Trump will be signing something by August. Most of the negative effects won't start until after the 2020 election. Until then it will still be Obama's fault.

if it won't be 50-50 with Manchin defecting.

Repugs can't stand anything that the rich have to pay for, even if it's the lives of their constituents and Drumpf is the meanest MFer of them all. They'd kill every one of us gladly if they could just get the tax break for themselves and the people that bribe them. Because he can't admit that it's his own party's failings, he'll cut off all subsidies to Obamacare and blame Dems for not voting for his personal tax cuts. His deplorables have no relationship with the truth and will believe his lies, but hopefully it will be limited to those 36% and everyone else will blame the responsible killers - Repugs.

That's the game plan. Looks good on camera, and "protects" the GOP seats that are weak.
All this BS about "good faith negotiation" is bull. The members of the GOP have a job to do, and they won't get paid if it doesn't pass. And they'll just shrug and go "nothing personal, we were just following orders" to the millions of constituents who thought the word of the GOP - those liars and pretty-faced slackers who claim to be &quot sic) good people fighting for God and the Real America" was going to somehow make the real world better for them.

Tens of thousands will die over the next five years that, with access to medical procedures and medicine, could have had more years of productive lifetime. Children will die.

But, as Mulvaney said - at least the taxpayers won't have to pick up the tab for someone else's bad choices.

Haele