China and Russia seeing an opportunity to get the US and Allies out of the way. Call it WWIII

...if Trump and company continue to egg North Korea on. Remember when North Korea was threatening to do this, but didn't? It was probably because the U.S. said that we are not going to take North Korea's word that it is a test missile and we will treat such a test as a hostile attack and respond appropriately.

Well, the brinksmanship will come when North Korea announces to the world that it is going to fire a test missile, and then let the U.S. initiate live fire. North Korea is trying to goad the U.S. into acting as the aggressor in order to isolate the U.S.'s influence in the region. This is also consistent with Russia and China's goals as well.

Of course, by backing out of TPP, and raising tensions with regional allies like Australia, South Korea, as well as Philippines and China, Trump is playing right into North Korea, China and Russia's hands.

Once again, the end game is to get Trump and company to do something stupid like launching a series of cruise missiles at North Korea, which will then be met with an artillery bombardment of Seoul or roughly the same proportion. The risk is that this escalates to World War III. The upside for North Korea, China, and Russia, if they are successful is that the U.S.'s influence in the region will wane as the US will not longer be seen as a trustworthy partner, and damage U.S. relations with Pacific Rim countries.

Would treat it as real. But if we are talking about test missiles launched at real targets, why not just launch a test missile at DC in that case, we would have so much longer to discuss it and better defenses to allow North Korea to see if we could stop it. Since it is just a test, it should AOK.

If the U.S. truly is treating test missiles launched at real targets as real, then the U.S. has pretty much done nothing as North Korea has launched missiles toward Japan. But, if it was launched at Guam, as you explain, then there may be consequences.

Which I think is the point that North Korea is trying to make. For all of Trump's bluster and threats, he is not a reliable ally. Worse, as you point out, while he will look the other way as missiles are launched toward Japan, if North Korea launches a test missile toward Guam, the U.S. will attack overwhelmingly with real ordinance, which will then give North Korea the green light to shoot artillery into the South Korea and Seoul, which will also illustrate to South Korea that Trump is not a reliable ally, particularly since Trump has been raising tensions with South Korea's new President.

Put another way, Russia/North Korea/China are totally playing Trump and boxing him in with his own bellicose rhetoric. The main calculation really is not whether North Korea actually launches nukes in a limited scale tit for tat, but whether Trump feels the need to make good with his overwhelming force threats.

Last edited Sat Sep 16, 2017, 07:28 PM - Edit history (2)

Trump is happy to egg on North Korea with threats to wipe it out, and North Korea responds with threats to US allies. But, because "Japan is not a US territory," Trump continues to flap his lips and endanger U.S. allies. Finally, if and when North Korea announces and then launches a test missile toward Guam, and Trump responds by launching live cruise missiles at North Korean targets, which then triggers a North Korean bombardment of Seoul, it will be the US, not North Korea that actually initiated hostilities. Yes, no U.S lives were lost, but our allies again pay the price for Trump's bluster.

Oh, but I am sure that Hillary or Bernie would be doing the same thing.

...then of course they are going to continue to launch missiles to take advantage of the current Trump Presidency.

If Japan refuses to be a test zone for NK, and they start something, then what? Do we defend them then? I would rather NK stop their aggression, as this is nothing new. They have been rattling sabers since the 50's, irregardless of what party is in POTUS's shoes.

What diplomacy would that be?

...that do not include tens if not hundreds of thousands of dead Koreans on both sides of the DMZ. And the destruction of much of one of our closet allies and trading partners. Tough talk. More bullshit. Nothing more. Turns out the "deal maker extraordinaire" was full of shit all along. Whoda thunk?!

And then complain, " we were warned, how come no one did anything"?

North Korea will not attack South Korea. To do so would mean the end of the North Korean regime. They fully understand that. They're not stupid. Don't buy the rhetoric at face value. It's purpose is a warning to outsiders and to keep the home populace in line. NK is not developing nuclear weapons for offensive purposes. That's a loosing game and they know it. They are, however, the ultimate insurance policy to guard against regime change and outside aggression. That's the same reason Iran has gone down that path. But unlike Iran, the option of "bomb the shit out of them" to end their nuclear ambitions is not viable from a tactical, strategic or moral standpoint for the US, China SK or anyone else involved. So, we're left with containment and diplomacy. Maybe the DPRK leadership will discover that making money is far more enjoyable than ideology, as China did under Deng Xiaoping.

Last edited Sat Sep 16, 2017, 11:55 AM - Edit history (1)

by Western leaders in the late 20s and 30s. 'Ignore him, he can't do any thing, it would be suicide for him, he would be crushed'. History is on the side of believing what people say they are going to do, not on the side of ignoring or laughing at it.

Neither do I for that matter. That fact makes it awfully easy for us armchair strategists to be a little too bellicose when we have limited skin in the game. Secondly, exactly where did I write... IGNORE HIM? Can you point that one out for me or are you just beating up a straw man? Thirdly, Kim Jong Un is many things, none of them admirable, but only Hitler was Hitler. Bad analogy and Godwin to boot. That's 15 yards and loss of down.

My statement is containment and diplomacy. The same thing we've done for decades with nuclear armed Russia and China. After all, Mao was just as despicable as Kim, but most rational people didn't get all Godwin about it.

Stalin was Hitler, Mao was Hitler, Pol Pot was Hitler, the Kim family -- all three of them so far -- was Hitler and there are many others. Diplomacy has not worked with NK. Clinton tried and failed. Bush tried and failed. Obama tried and failed. Continue to repeat until a hundred thousand die in a few minutes? People who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. Not my quote but very true.

unless we are sociopaths. And not very bright sociopaths at that.

Is tRump going to fly the first mission? Is he going to lead troops into battle? No, it's just a four time bankrupt shyster trying to look tough.

Wolf

Would regale us with State Department stories. Where knowledgeable and brainy individuals would find ways to talk to the other side.
Ah, those were the days,,,,

and the idiot in charge can run to a f*cking bunker in West Virginia and play war and watch a movie:

Like what they've done to Japan.

...is to provoke Trump into launching a limited, Syria-style cruise missile attack that would open the door to North Korea launching a roughly proportional attack on South Korea.

Why you may ask? Well, to let Trump continue to be Trump and reduce U.S. influence in the Pacific Rim. Trump is already half way there. He as already backed out of TPP. He has raised tensions with our closest allies in the region such as South Korea and Australia. He antagonized China from the get-go by recognizing Taiwan and suggesting that he would go further. Finally, he has already shown that he likes splashy military attacks such as Syria cruise missiles and dropping a huge bomb on virtually empty caves in Afgan while also showing less concern for collateral human casualties so long as they are not white.

So, North Korea is going to continue to shoot test missiles toward Japan every time Trump makes a threat of military action, while also floating the idea of a similar test launched at Guam. The Trump administration is going to continue to ratchet up their rhetoric, perhaps with Trump once again threatening to turn North Korea into a pool of slag in order to please his base and generate ratings if North Korea threatens the U.S. Meanwhile, the U.S. has been telling North Korea on the down low not to fire a test missile at Guam, because the U.S. will treat it as an attack.

Well, eventually, Trump is going to lose patience and announce then any missile test directed toward Guam will not be tolerated. He will back himself into a corner. At that time, North Korea will launch a test missile toward Guam and may or may not announce that it is a test depending on the wording of Trump's threat.

The Trump administration having seen such a test will need to either let it pass, thus forcing Trump to eat his words. Or, Trump will do something like launch cruise missiles at North Korea with the U.S. being the one that has initiated an actual military attack. With an actual military attack, North Korea will launch a limited, conventional artillery attack at South Korea designed to kill about a 1,000 people. Since the U.S. launched the first attack, China will then announce that it will stand by its original promise to defend North Korea.

China and Russia will then call for an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council demanding a cease fire. North Korea will point to the actions of the U.S. in actually initiating an attack, and China and Russia will concur and demand that the U.S. end its provocation. Relations with South Korea will deteriorate with South Koreans demanding an end to the U.S. presence due to the casualties resulting from a U.S. response to a test missile directed at Guam. Likewise, countries throughout the Pacific Rim will not see the U.S. as a reliable ally.

Finally, North Korea will then offer to de-escalate if they have assurances that the U.S. will not continue to threaten military action toward North Korea, and Russia and China will support this. Meanwhile, the U.S.'s traditional allies will be hard pressed to stand with Trump given his prior willingness to take them for granted, including Germany, Mexico and the U.S.

Of course, the huge risk is that the limited military conflict outlined above might spiral out of control into World War III. This all would not be possible without a President Trump.

Except I think that if North Korea launches a limited attack - based on Trump's response - it has the potential of escalating. Assuming no Nukes - just a conventional war - can you see Trump telling the American people that we must send a few hundred thousand US soldiers to defend Korea. I am willing to bet - that our allies probably will beg off Trump's folly.

I guess that in the event of a major conflict - he will only draw troops from his supporters - they voted for him, their president, their mess.

there are 47,000 +/- there now. President Obama looked to be a steady 28,500 until 2014, then 29,300. No #'s posted for '15 and '16. The "police action" was never officially declared "over". Just an armistice, more or less a "cease fire".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Forces_Korea#Number_of_U.S._soldiers_stationed_in_South_Korea_by_year

There have always been military options, by necessity. The problem is, previous administrations realized that these options were the last, worst options and TRUMP just can't fucking wait to use them!

to allow Li'l Kim to back down instead of challenging him to take a more dangerous course.