They want to prepare you for waking up on November 7th and finding the Republicans have somehow won more.

I have no faith the vote will not be rigged in many places across the nation as it most certainly was in 2016.

With that said, these polls showing a GOP lead have 22-26 percent undecided.

That is high and unlikely.

I have voted in every election, general or primary, since 1962, no matter where I lived at the time, inside the U.S. or abroad. You repeating this doesn’t seem that helpful.

but I gotta call horseshit on the poll results. I don't believe that even for a minute.

Mega bullshit

And...yes we do lol

Gotta give it to the knights, though! Maybe they can stop that evil russian agent in DC.

Oh snap

Vote early and vote often!

The deplorable base.

The "baked in" proportion of the Democratic Party base is roughly equal.

The remainder (of REGISTERED voters) is up for grabs in the marketplace of ideas. Which ideas will grab ahold of public attention?

The fact that Democrats aren't substantially ahead speaks in part to the paucity of ideas and inability of party leaders to break through the noise that clutters the moment.

We've got less that 180 days to make bold moves as a party.

Crickets.

Is the inability to break into the news cycle as its all Trump shock and awe, all the time.

This is why we lost in 2016, despite winning more votes.

As soon as we can figure this out, it's lights out for GOP. I think it's time to be bold and try new ideas.

The 22% is probably a big portion of that "baked in" portion.
But it doesn't seem a more progressive agenda is going to be part of 2018 agenda. So it will be interesting to see how the cards fall.

with age comes wisdom and conservative action (conservative like overly cautious, not righ wingers)

Independents are those who depend on campaign commercials to figure out who was best candidate. Was waiting for car to be finished at repair place other day. Sat next to a woman who worked in a food bank and asked who she would support. I asked her if she was aware what the Republikkkans were trying to do w/food stamps and she said she was and was worried greatly about it. I then asked the obvious question why would you consider voting Republikkkan? She said, "I vote for the best person". This is an awfully dumb country. Probably too dumb to expect being able to manage self gov't.

Especially with so many undecideds.

But I am still worried about the midterms. I can see the Repugs pulling out a miracle (or a fix) and way overperforming again.

on a poll like this.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/

Had HRC winning in 16.
I've never read them since.

Repugs stole the election

Yes, they saw Clinton as the probable winner, but they were only giving her a 66% chance of winning, instead of the +90% odds that some others were predicting. They also hedged their bets pretty heavily running up to the election, with several articles running up to the election, including one that outlined the scenario that actually happened (polling weakness in one state ended up being reflected in several nearby states).

They're statisticians, not fortune tellers - A missed prediction, even a high-profile one like a Presidential election doesn't really invalidate their model.

This poll is more scientific than that. See: the "About" at http://polling.reuters.com

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Election-Polling-Resources/Sampling-Methods-for-Political-Polling.aspx

The major advantage of a probability-based sampling is that we can calculate how well the findings from the sample represent the total population. That is, we can calculate the margin of sampling error, which measures how much our estimates vary based on the fact we’re only measuring a sample of the population and not every member of the population. This ability to estimate, within a specified range, the accuracy of survey findings has made probability-based sampling the cornerstone of modern survey research.

Non-probability sampling methods do not share this feature that everyone in a population has a chance of being selected and researchers know exactly what that chance is. Participants are typically not selected at random to be included in the sample but rather come to be included by other means, for instance because they volunteer, a person’s chance of being in the sample is unknown. For example, in an opt-in sample a person accepts an invitation to complete a survey that is offered to all visitors to a website. The chance of that person visiting that website and then choosing to participate in the survey cannot be known. One serious consequence is that only certain types of people may choose to opt into the survey and they may be different than those who do not in ways that could potentially bias the final results.

With non-probability samples is there is no simple way to calculate the “margin of error;” instead, estimates of the likely error must be based on a statistical models. As a result, AAPOR has cautioned that it may be misleading to report a margin of sampling error for surveys based on non-probability samples.

Nonresponse to polls is a big factor affecting the accuracy of poll results. In a probability sample, the respondents can be thought of as “self-selecting” into the sample. To the extent that the respondents and non-respondents differ systematically on the survey variables—for example, which candidate they support in an upcoming election--nonresponse can bias the poll results, and that is true even if the initial sample was a probability sample. In a similar way, the accuracy of non-probability samples, such as opt-in samples, can be affected by self-selection. In both types of sampling, if the people who participate in the poll are different from those who do not, results can be biased because of these differences.




http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/05/02/q-a-online-nonprobability-polls/

A number of studies over the past 15 or so years have indicated that nonprobability surveys do not accurately measure public opinion. Is that still true?

This study was a first step for us in trying to address that, and I would not say that we have a firm answer yet. One of the samples performed quite well and that is really intriguing to us. We also are open to the possibility that, with the right advanced statistical modeling and weighting, some of these online samples might support fairly accurate and reliable estimates about public opinion.

It’s also important to consider accuracy in light of one’s goals for the research. If the goal is to get a general sense of how opinion is shaped, some nonprobability samples may be accurate enough – especially given their very low cost. If one needs very precise estimates, then our results suggest the field is not there yet.

No way to rationalize it.

Plus, if you live in a Fox News/Sinclair News world, Trump is the greatest President ever.

Total crap.
I didnt believe the polls in 16
And i dont now.
Im voting and they can kiss.my. ass.

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/dates/20180101-20180517/collapsed/true

A big swing in the Rethugs' favour with white voters, increasing their lead, and pulling us underwater overall...........

Well within any reasonable margin of error.

They are really desperate for a horse race, if they are waving flags like this around.

Democratic platform gets no visibility
The public is tired of scandal
Jobs are plentiful if average in quality
Gas is still affordable

We have our base
We know how to resist
Moralizing about Trump will not win over the middle ground
We need decisive ideas and sound bites that independents can grasp onto

Trump is governing in a Machiavellian manner
Tweets get too much attention
The public is not tuned to CNN or MSNBC every day or hour - some of them never!
Activism is our edge, if we have one - use it

And results from special elections and latest primaries do not indicate this trend.

I feel less sick now.

If we can keep the elections from worse tampering, there is still hope.

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/23/trump-democrats-2020-election-603421

I feel sick.