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brooklynite

(94,594 posts) Tue Jun 19, 2018, 01:25 PM Jun 2018

Montana Polling

Source: Gravis Poll

9) If the election for Senate were held today and you had to make a decision, which candidate are you leaning towards?
Q8: Senate
Democrat Jon Tester 51%
Republican Matt Rosendale 44%

10) If the election for Senate (sic) were held today and the candidates were Greg Gianforte and Kathleen Williams, who would you vote for?
Q10: Gianforte/Williams
Democrat Kathleen Williams 49%
Republican Greg Gianforte 43%

...snip..

21) In the 2016 Presidential election whom did you vote for?
Q21: 2016 Presidential Election
Donald Trump 39%
Hillary Clinton 32%
Gary Johnson 6%
Jill Stein 7%
Did not vote 16%

Read more: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/Gravis_Montana_June_2018.pdf

nb - Gianforte and Williams are the House at large candidates

6 replies

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Highlight:

Montana Polling (Original Post) brooklynite Jun 2018 OP

So 6% of the Montana population are still sane kimbutgar Jun 2018 #1

Good. Delarage Jun 2018 #2

I'm working for the Kathleen Williams campaign. MontanaMama Jun 2018 #3

So far so good - GOTV! lagomorph777 Jun 2018 #4

Gravis is a Republican pollster, too DeminPennswoods Jun 2018 #5

Their sample seems unrepresentative, tilted way toward the left. Jim Lane Jun 2018 #6

kimbutgar

(21,160 posts)

1. So 6% of the Montana population are still sane

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 01:47 PM

Jun 2018

Will Twitler come in and chip away those sane 6%?

Delarage

(2,186 posts)

2. Good.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 01:52 PM

Jun 2018

Just wait until farmers start going under due to Trump's trade wars! Montana could flip.

MontanaMama

(23,322 posts)

3. I'm working for the Kathleen Williams campaign.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 02:12 PM

Jun 2018

She’s the real deal. I hope she’s ready to battle the onslaught of Koch money that will flood the state. Tester is a favorite of veterans and I hope they come out in droves for him. I must say I’m shocked at how many Montanans are really disconnnected from politics and current events...it is disturbing.

lagomorph777

(30,613 posts)

4. So far so good - GOTV!

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 03:16 PM

Jun 2018

DeminPennswoods

(15,286 posts)

5. Gravis is a Republican pollster, too

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 04:32 PM

Jun 2018

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)

6. Their sample seems unrepresentative, tilted way toward the left.

Reply to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Jun 19, 2018, 11:20 PM

Jun 2018

In their sample:
Donald Trump 39%
Hillary Clinton 32%
Gary Johnson 6%
Jill Stein 7%
Did not vote 16%

Actual statewide votes in 2016:
Donald Trump 56%
Hillary Clinton 36%
Gary Johnson 6%
Jill Stein 2%

I don't see how the difference could be accounted for by the inclusion of the "Did not vote" option. In the sample, there were 122 Trump voters for every 100 Clinton voters. In the actual election, though, there were 157 Trump voters for every 100 Clinton voters. And, of course, Stein didn't come close to outpolling Johnson.

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