Gap Narrows in CD12 Special

Source: Monmouth University Polling Institute

West Long Branch, NJ – The race to fill the open seat in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District has shifted from a Republican advantage last month to a toss-up now, according to the Monmouth University Poll. Different voter models suggest that the race could go either way. The underlying GOP-lean of this district benefits State Senator Troy Balderson. But an increase in Democratic enthusiasm and a shift in independent voter preferences have boosted the standing of Franklin County Recorder Danny O’Connor.

In the special election to be held next Tuesday, Balderson the Republican has 44% support and O’Connor the Democrat has 43% support among all potential voters – that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 87% of all registered voters in the district). Joe Manchik – the Green Party candidate who got nearly 4% of the vote two years ago – earns just 2%. A relatively large 11% remain undecided. A little over one month ago, Balderson had a 43% to 33% advantage among all potential voters.

Monmouth also looked at the race using three possible turnout models. A standard model that looks like a typical midterm voter pool shows the race basically tied at 46% for Balderson and 45% for O’Connor. Last month, this same model gave the Republican a sizable 48% to 39% advantage. Balderson benefits more under a lower turnout model where only the most reliable voters show up, holding a slight 49% to 44% edge over O’Connor under this scenario. Still, this same model gave the Republican a much healthier 50% to 35% lead just one month ago. In a Democratic “surge” model akin to turnout patterns that have been seen in some but not all special elections held since 2017, O’Connor has 46% and Balderson has 45%. O’Connor trailed in this model last month by 39% to 46% for Balderson. None of the leads in any of these likely voter models is statistically significant.

“This race has definitely tightened in the past month. This is similar to the trend we saw in our polling of the Pennsylvania special election earlier this year. That race ended up with an electorate that looked more like a standard midterm turnout,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Read more: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_oh_080118/