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brooklynite

(94,598 posts)
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 05:11 PM Aug 2018

Banks are preparing for house prices to fall by a third after Brexit

Source: Metro

House prices falling by a third, interest rates soaring by more than 4% and the economy going into recession – it’s the prediction from the Bank of England on what will happen in the event of a no deal Brexit.

BOE boss Mark Carney made the dire warning today that there is an ‘uncomfortably high’ risk that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal and it could have devastating consequences. After his comments, the pound sterling plunged to an 11-day low against the dollar.

After his comments, the pound sterling plunged to an 11-day low against the dollar.

Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2018/08/03/banks-preparing-house-prices-fall-third-brexit-7792888/

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Banks are preparing for house prices to fall by a third after Brexit (Original Post) brooklynite Aug 2018 OP
A third? Yikes!!!!! mwooldri Aug 2018 #1
Not really FBaggins Aug 2018 #3
This is insane. Maven Aug 2018 #2
Highly misleading article - more or less a lie muriel_volestrangler Aug 2018 #4
Well, the Metro IS part of the same media group as the Daily Mail! Denzil_DC Aug 2018 #5

mwooldri

(10,303 posts)
1. A third? Yikes!!!!!
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 05:29 PM
Aug 2018

And interest rates go up 4% or more? Even more Yikes!

The UK mortgage scene is a whole lot more risky than in the USA. A 30 year mortgage with the interest rate fixed for the entire term of the loan? Unheard of. Typically you can get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage - and after that it goes to a variable rate for the remaining years of the loan. Most people who have a mortgage in the UK are on a variable rate. Heck, some people have interest-only mortgages - where they only pay the interest each month and after the end of the mortgage they still have to buy the property.

I see a few things happen... 1) people will lose their primary residences, 2) people who bought a secondary property to rent out will not afford payments and these will be sent back to the bank, 3) economy go down a fair bit as there's a lot of money around housing.

FBaggins

(26,748 posts)
3. Not really
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 05:46 PM
Aug 2018

Despite the language of the first paragraph, this is in no sense a "prediction" of "what would happen if" Brexit went a different way.

It's a standard tool of central banks called a "stress test"... the "what would happen if" is really asking "what would happen to your bank if scenario X occurred"... then they design "X" to be worse than any reasonable prediction.

Most people who have a mortgage in the UK are on a variable rate.

The article directly contradicts that... and points out that qualifying for mortgages is based on a much higher rate than then-current to make sure that such shocks are not crippling. (Not a bad idea)

Maven

(10,533 posts)
2. This is insane.
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 05:43 PM
Aug 2018

Two of the most powerful democracies on the planet walking toward the edge of a cliff. Compelled by the false mandate of a compromised vote in each case.

At least the UK has the means to reverse course. But will they?

muriel_volestrangler

(101,322 posts)
4. Highly misleading article - more or less a lie
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 06:04 PM
Aug 2018

It is not the prediction. What Carney said was that the UK banks had been stress-tested for awful events whatever the cause. Those things were what he said the system could withstand.

Starting at 2:25:00: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bcdf1t

"Wherever the shock comes from. It could come from China, it could come from abroad, it could come from a no deal Brexit."
...

He added: “We ran the system a year ago through a stress test, this is not a prediction of what would happen in a no deal scenario, but to give you an idea of what they can withstand: real estate prices going down by more than a third – house prices and commercial real estate – interest rates going up by almost 4%, unemployment going to 9% and the economy going into a 4% recession, so we did that in order to try and create the kind of hits to balance sheets and the calls on their capital and liquidity that meant they had to build these buffers to be in a position in case something bad happened.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/97358/chances-no-deal-brexit-uncomfortably-high-warns-bank

The Metro should be ashamed of itself.

Denzil_DC

(7,242 posts)
5. Well, the Metro IS part of the same media group as the Daily Mail!
Fri Aug 3, 2018, 07:02 PM
Aug 2018

I guess the clickbaity headline outweighed any swarm commitment to Brexit.

The Metro's a trashy freesheet, the sort you find left behind on a train seat. I don't think it should be a permissible source in LBN any more than the Mail is.

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