Banks are preparing for house prices to fall by a third after Brexit
Source: Metro
House prices falling by a third, interest rates soaring by more than 4% and the economy going into recession its the prediction from the Bank of England on what will happen in the event of a no deal Brexit.
BOE boss Mark Carney made the dire warning today that there is an uncomfortably high risk that Britain will leave the European Union without a deal and it could have devastating consequences. After his comments, the pound sterling plunged to an 11-day low against the dollar.
After his comments, the pound sterling plunged to an 11-day low against the dollar.
Read more: https://metro.co.uk/2018/08/03/banks-preparing-house-prices-fall-third-brexit-7792888/
mwooldri
(10,303 posts)And interest rates go up 4% or more? Even more Yikes!
The UK mortgage scene is a whole lot more risky than in the USA. A 30 year mortgage with the interest rate fixed for the entire term of the loan? Unheard of. Typically you can get a 10 year fixed rate mortgage - and after that it goes to a variable rate for the remaining years of the loan. Most people who have a mortgage in the UK are on a variable rate. Heck, some people have interest-only mortgages - where they only pay the interest each month and after the end of the mortgage they still have to buy the property.
I see a few things happen... 1) people will lose their primary residences, 2) people who bought a secondary property to rent out will not afford payments and these will be sent back to the bank, 3) economy go down a fair bit as there's a lot of money around housing.
FBaggins
(26,748 posts)Despite the language of the first paragraph, this is in no sense a "prediction" of "what would happen if" Brexit went a different way.
It's a standard tool of central banks called a "stress test"... the "what would happen if" is really asking "what would happen to your bank if scenario X occurred"... then they design "X" to be worse than any reasonable prediction.
Most people who have a mortgage in the UK are on a variable rate.
The article directly contradicts that... and points out that qualifying for mortgages is based on a much higher rate than then-current to make sure that such shocks are not crippling. (Not a bad idea)
Maven
(10,533 posts)Two of the most powerful democracies on the planet walking toward the edge of a cliff. Compelled by the false mandate of a compromised vote in each case.
At least the UK has the means to reverse course. But will they?
muriel_volestrangler
(101,322 posts)It is not the prediction. What Carney said was that the UK banks had been stress-tested for awful events whatever the cause. Those things were what he said the system could withstand.
Starting at 2:25:00: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0bcdf1t
"Wherever the shock comes from. It could come from China, it could come from abroad, it could come from a no deal Brexit."
...
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/foreign-affairs/brexit/news/97358/chances-no-deal-brexit-uncomfortably-high-warns-bank
The Metro should be ashamed of itself.
Denzil_DC
(7,242 posts)I guess the clickbaity headline outweighed any swarm commitment to Brexit.
The Metro's a trashy freesheet, the sort you find left behind on a train seat. I don't think it should be a permissible source in LBN any more than the Mail is.