Survey of battleground House districts shows Democrats with narrow edge
Source: The Washington Post
By Scott Clement and Dan Balz October 8 at 7:00 AM
Likely voters who live in 69 battleground House districts across the country narrowly prefer Democratic candidates, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School survey, a potentially worrying sign for Republicans given that the overwhelming percentage of these districts are currently in GOP hands.
With just a month to the midterm elections and with early voting set to begin in many states, the new poll highlights the challenge for Republicans as they seek to maintain their House majority at a time when President Trump’s approval rating remains below 50 percent despite sustained economic growth, low unemployment and a rising stock market.
The survey of 2,672 likely voters by The Post and the Schar School at George Mason University shows that likely voters in these districts favor Democrats by a slight margin: 50 percent prefer the Democratic nominee and 46 percent prefer the Republican. By way of comparison, in 2016 these same districts favored Republican candidates over Democratic ones by 15 percentage points, 56 percent to 41 percent.
[Read full poll results | How the poll was conducted ]
Women are driving Democratic support in the battleground districts, favoring the party’s candidates by 54 percent to 40 percent. Men in these districts favor Republicans by 51 percent to 46 percent. That gender difference continues a pattern that has been seen throughout the year in other polls and in special elections.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-of-battleground-house-districts-shows-democrats-with-narrow-edge/2018/10/07/f45e13f2-c812-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html
= new reply since forum marked as read
I don't understand how the Washington Post can make any predictions for Pennsylvania based on past performance. The PA gerrymandering was so pervasive that formerly blue counties and districts went for Trump in 2016.
Now the gerrymandering will be held to a minimum, or at least we hope it's been greatly reduced. But we won't know anything until November 6th. It's a whole new ballgame in PA!
Was getting images for my post to say the same thing and am just noticing your post!
the survey is a bit confusing with their numbering for the PA seats with respect to the "before" and "after". I.e., they are missing a seat here that is expected to flip (new vs old PA-6). Plus the old PA-7 is the new PA-5 (a flip).
Old
New
Still going through it...
Those BLUE votes aren't going to get themselves out!
