Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
...MICHAEL BRINGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO
WESTERN CUBA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF COAST...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Anclote River.
The Storm Surge Watch has been extended west of Navarre Florida to
the Alabama/Florida border.
A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the Gulf Coast of Florida
from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Suwannee River.
A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Alabama/Florida border
westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border.
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the Alabama/Florida
border westward to the Mississippi/Alabama border and from Suwannee
River Florida southward to Chassahowitzka Florida.
A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama
border westward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* The Cuban province of the Isle of Youth
* The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche, including Cozumel
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.
For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 22.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northward to
north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is
expected through Tuesday night, followed by a northeastward motion
on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico this evening,
then move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday and Tuesday
night. The center of Michael is expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during
the next day or so, and Michael is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A wind gust to 75 mph (120 km/h) was reported at an
observing site in Isabel Rubio in the Cuban province of Pinar del
Rio earlier this afternoon.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...
Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...5-8 ft
Crystal River FL to Anclote River FL...4-6 ft
Anclote River to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft
WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue over portions of the
far western Cuban province of Pinar del Rio through this evening.
Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the
warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula through tonight.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by
Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...
Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.
Florida Panhandle and Big Bend across Georgia into South Carolina...
4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.
Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, North Carolina, portions of the
Mid-Atlantic States, and the southern New England coast...2 to 4
inches with isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.
Yucatan Peninsula...1 to 2 inches.
SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the south coast of
Cuba and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Swells are
expected to begin affecting the coast of the eastern and northern
Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018
Data from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that was
in the storm until about 1700 UTC continued to indicate that the
hurricane was deepening. The pressure had fallen to 978 mb on
the final fix, but the aircraft was still not able to sample the
northeastern portion of the storm due to the close proximity of
land. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on a
blend of Dvorak satellite classifications and the continued
deepening that was observed.
The upper-level outflow has gradually improved over Michael but it
is still somewhat restricted over the western portion of the storm.
There has been no significant change to the intensity forecast
thinking. The moderate shear that has been affecting the cyclone is
not expected to prevent strengthening while Michael moves over the
warm waters of the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Although the statistical
guidance is somewhat lower this cycle, the regional hurricane and
global models still favor steady to rapid strengthening, and the NHC
forecast is closest to the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP
corrected consensus model.
Aircraft and satellite fixes show that Michael has been wobbling as
it moves generally northward. Smoothing through the wobbles gives a
long-term initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. Michael is forecast
to move north-northwestward to northward between a deep-layer ridge
over the western Atlantic and a trough over the west-central United
States. The trough is forecast move eastward, causing Michael to
turn northeastward in 36 to 48 hours, and the cyclone should then
accelerate northeastward as it enters the mid-latitude westerly
flow. The 1200 UTC dynamical models have converged on both the
track and forward speed through the first 48 to 72 hours. The
updated NHC track has been nudged slightly westward through 48 hours
to be closer to the latest consensus aids.
It should be noted that the location and magnitude of peak storm
surge flooding is very sensitive to small changes in the track,
intensity, and structure of the hurricane. Since there is still
uncertainty in all of these parameters, the official NHC storm surge
forecast and watch/warning areas includes various plausible
scenarios. Regardless of the eventual track and intensity of
Michael, life-threatening storm surge inundation is expected along
portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend/Nature Coast, and the
storm surge watch has been upgraded to a storm surge warning for
parts of this area.
The NOAA G-IV aircraft is conducting a synoptic surveillance mission
over the Gulf of Mexico and dropsondes from that mission will be
assimilated into the 0000 UTC numerical models runs.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these
areas should follow all advice given by their local officials.
2. A hurricane warning has been issued for portions of the Florida
Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for
life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael.
Damaging winds will also extend inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.
3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.
4. Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of western Cuba
through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
5. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula
of Mexico during the next couple of days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 08/2100Z 22.2N 85.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 23.7N 85.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 25.7N 86.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 27.9N 86.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 30.2N 85.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
72H 11/1800Z 34.5N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 12/1800Z 39.8N 68.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1800Z 46.2N 50.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
= new reply since forum marked as read
