CNN poll: Democrats are fired up and maintain a strong 2018 lead
Source: CNN
By Grace Sparks, CNN
Updated 12:05 PM ET, Tue October 9, 2018
Washington (CNN)Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.
This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That's also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker
This year, Democrats' enthusiasm about their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they're extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.
Democratic enthusiasm this year is more intense than it has been in previous midterm cycles, which typically engage voters less than presidential years. The 40% who call themselves "extremely enthusiastic" is the highest share to say so in a midterm election cycle since CNN first asked the question in 2009.
Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html
Poll: Dems lead GOP by 13 points on generic congressional ballot
BY JUSTIN WISE - 10/09/18 12:43 PM EDT
Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll from CNN.
The CNN survey, which was conducted by SSRS and released on Tuesday, found that 54 percent of likely voters favor a Democratic congressional candidate in their district. Forty-one percent of likely voters said they support a GOP candidate.
This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when the party held a 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, according to CNN.
Link to tweet
CNN also reported the 13-point lead for Democrats represents a three-point increase from a similar poll conducted in September. In that survey, 52 percent of likely voters said they favored a Democrat and 42 percent said they favored a Republican.
more
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)they're down 1% from last month.
elmac
(4,642 posts)into state elections this last month and those dollars are having an impact.
watoos
(7,142 posts)that came out right after Kavanaugh got elected. I had to laugh at it, it showed a big surge in Republican enthusiasm. Heck there wasn't even time for the poll to take effect.
Be wary of fake polls meant to demoralize us. Also the corporate media is full of right wing talking points.
NewJeffCT
(56,828 posts)was when I first noticed how the media had skewed a poll - it was after the Biden-Ryan VP debate. Most neutral observers would agree that Biden won it fairly handily, but the CNN post debate poll had it tied like 48-48 or something like that. However, if you dug into the numbers, they polled more Republicans than Democrats. Typical presidential races have more Democrats voting than Republicans by several percentage points - even when Reagan won by a landslide in 1984, more Dems voted than Republicans, just that a large swatch of "Reagan" Democrats voted for Reagan. So, while Reagan maybe got 95% of Republicans, Mondale got only 75-80% of Democrats.
If you used normal percentages, Biden wins by a good 10% or more
Johnny2X2X
(19,095 posts)They got riled up for about a week, but it would have been much better for Reps politically if Kavanaugh hadn't been seated. Almost no GOP voters will be voting in November because of Kavanaugh, millions of Dem women voters will be voting because of Kavanaugh though.
MyOwnPeace
(16,936 posts)I somehow keep hoping that it's not just "Dem" women that are upset with this s**t-show that's going on - but that women everywhere realize what has been going down and are "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore!"
I mean, really, from the time IQ45 rode down that escalator - didn't we all think that "surely everyone can see what a scam this is?"
And, yes, we've been steamrolled over SO many times since then.
But, again, isn't it time that FINALLY enough people wake up and see WTF is going on?
If not this November, when??
BigGermanGuy
(131 posts)is beyond upset.
I thank my lucky stars I have boys, but I have some nieces that I will burn this country to the ground before I let their uteri be controlled.
MyOwnPeace
(16,936 posts)and welcome to DU, BGG!
BigGermanGuy
(131 posts)SunSeeker
(51,621 posts)Hermit-The-Prog
(33,389 posts)gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering
gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures
gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures and electronic voting machine "glitches"
gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures and electronic voting machine "glitches" and Russians
Ah, hell, they have CHEATS.
Overwhelm the cheats -- GOTV!
only my opinion
(32 posts)remember it is not only the raw totals, but the state by state distribution is important.
John Fante
(3,479 posts)prior to the 2006 midterms, and took the house easily. There is a correlation.
rlegro
(338 posts)Since then, state-level Republicans have been busy purging millions of registered voters from the polls -- and you can bet most of those are Democrats. Then there's hyper-gerrymandering and "caging" of voters. Somewhere I read that in some states, like my own, the result of all these simultaneous vote suppression tactics is that Democrats need a 10 point lead just to be even.
Honeycombe8
(37,648 posts)AFTER the Kavanaugh hearing. This close to an election, momentum is a factor. What starts as a slight upward trend can hit its height at election time, before it has time to wane. But a month out is far enough for their enthusiasm to wane, if we're lucky, and they don't have another cause to rally their base.
Trump tried it with the "open borders" bill by Democrats that doesn't even exist. I've never seen anything like it. The outright fiction, banking on his supporters being that stupid (which they are).
watoos
(7,142 posts)DownriverDem
(6,230 posts)Do you honestly think the Dem leaders didn't take note of the increase in repub enthusiasm? They have staff all over the internet.
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)Math boy nerd Stevie or he might get his gop elephant 🐘 insignia underoos in a wad the next time hes at his magic board. Prick.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Poor little Kornwacki loves it when Republicans are up.
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)7962
(11,841 posts)They all love their camera time!
elmac
(4,642 posts)state elections so its still an uphill battle and wouldn't be this hard if citizens united wasn't destroying our Democracy.
Freethinker65
(10,033 posts)Angry mob will backfire the way, to some extent, the word deplorable did.
watoos
(7,142 posts)I tell my right wing friends that we Dems learned from the Tea Party, get ready for a Big Blue wave.
BigGermanGuy
(131 posts)posted a picture of about 30 women holding up a #kavanope sign.
clearly an angry mob.
MyOwnPeace
(16,936 posts)is a good "sign," indeed ( both the "sign" and the actions taken by those veteran citizens!).
YOU GO, GIRLS!!!!
FSogol
(45,513 posts)getagrip_already
(14,816 posts)Don't repeat 2016 where people thought they had the luxury of a protest vote, that there vote wouldn't count, or it wasn't needed.
We NEED every vote, in every state.
Period.
MyOwnPeace
(16,936 posts)loud enough, often enough, and STRONG enough!
There can be NO DOUBT that it was that kind of thinking that got us in this mess. Not that we deserved it (Lord knows NOBODY deserves THIS mess!), but it DID happen.
It CANNOT happen again!
GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!
TNLib
(1,819 posts)I think it's going to be much higher with RV (registered voters) as long as turn out is good.
Funtatlaguy
(10,885 posts)TNLib
(1,819 posts)He seems to be polling well and I've been getting voting cards in the mail from my Republican neighbor to vote for Bredesen. So I'm seeing some good signs.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Hasn't the corporate media saying otherwise?????????
Good news, I never doubted it.
Stallion
(6,476 posts)DeminPennswoods
(15,289 posts)angry white guy is on the Supreme Court?
SunSeeker
(51,621 posts)Norbert
(6,040 posts)It's still a dead heat. I think Aftab has a real shot.
I just hope so many Congressional seats flip that the orange lard ass couldn't pass a fart without congressional approval.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)I do think that we may very well hold our seats in Montana, Missouri and Indiana. But Tennessee is a hard pick-up, North Dakota was always the hardest seat to hold, and Manchin may have infuriated WV liberals and moderates, who were willing to tolerate an awful lot.
I think we are very likely to pick up seats in Nevada and Arizona.
bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)Wins in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida puts us with 51, but North Dakota is almost a lost cause at this point, she's getting drilled. So it ends 50-50 and Pence has the tiebreak.
StevieM
(10,500 posts)I had Heidi as a lost cause from pretty much the beginning, since ND is so conservative, her opponent is already a member of Congress, and she never had the popularity of Manchin.
I thought Bredesen could pull it out, especially against Marsha Blackburn, but it looks like he won't.
I don't really think Manchin will lose, I just think it is possible that the base is so unhappy that they don't support him. More likely he will hold on.
And, yes, that does leave the Senate 50/50, which used to mean power sharing at the committee level, but now probably won't.
qazplm135
(7,447 posts)although the odds favor the R in TN.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)bearsfootball516
(6,377 posts)A Democrat actually win before I really believe it'll happen. My guess is that Cruz wins something like 52-47.
grantcart
(53,061 posts)Pollsters have no model for these 2 candidates
Big turnout among Dems
Med increase of 18- 29
Med increase on Latino vote
And we win
Fortunately move on DSCC and Perez all invested big in GOTV.
It will be close but it is doable.
BigGermanGuy
(131 posts)she's behind, but her no vote saw a big swell of donations. could be what it takes to fire up the base there to try to get her over the top.
ellie
(6,929 posts)that repukes were inspired by Rapey K? Was I lied to by the media?
/s
MyOwnPeace
(16,936 posts)who do you believe anymore? We've got a well-documented history of showing how the media slants/directs/leans their coverage to increase interest. How else can you explain the 24/7 coverage of a low-polling reality show loser being the top news story every day for 2 years and running?
We have to remain firm - strong - dedicated to GETTING OUT THE VOTE. There can be no complacency - no belief that we've got it covered - no allowing the media to tell anybody that all is well and "the ins" can win no matter what.
It is our fight - we must fight - we must win!
Skruffy
(48 posts)We are getting to the home stretch and we are sitting in a good place. Time to put the head down, and really get at it. I am excited.
Not investigating if Kav plotted (planned with a buddy) to rape a girl, bothers people to say the very least. We do not have that short of attention spans, yet. I really rallied with what Harris said the other day, on the Senate floor.
Yard signs in the falling, colorful leaves along with pumpkins carved by artist, creative Liberals.
There are so many more of us.
Rhiannon12866
(205,733 posts)It's great to have you with us!
llmart
(15,546 posts)Let's keep working to get the huge turnout we need. Don't let up until it's over. Don't let the naysayers get you down.
We need every last person to do whatever they can.
ZeroSomeBrains
(638 posts)That is all.
nycbos
(6,035 posts)Flight to the end don't get complacent.
Don't tempt fate
Don't tempt the wrath from high atop the thing.
LBM20
(1,580 posts)iluvtennis
(19,868 posts)we cross the finish line.
mcar
(42,364 posts)RobertDevereaux
(1,858 posts)GOTV as never before.
ananda
(28,873 posts)Go Dems!!!