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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:03 PM Oct 2018

CNN poll: Democrats are fired up and maintain a strong 2018 lead

Source: CNN



By Grace Sparks, CNN

Updated 12:05 PM ET, Tue October 9, 2018

Washington (CNN)Four weeks out from Election Day, Democrats remain well ahead of Republicans in a generic ballot matchup, with 54% of likely voters saying they support the Democrat in their district and 41% backing a Republican, according to a CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That's also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker

This year, Democrats' enthusiasm about their congressional vote has increased and 62% now say they're extremely or very enthusiastic to vote, up seven points since September among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents. Among Republicans and Republican leaning independents, enthusiasm has remained relatively steady, going from 50% in September to 52% in the most recent poll.

Democratic enthusiasm this year is more intense than it has been in previous midterm cycles, which typically engage voters less than presidential years. The 40% who call themselves "extremely enthusiastic" is the highest share to say so in a midterm election cycle since CNN first asked the question in 2009.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/cnn-poll-midterms/index.html



Poll: Dems lead GOP by 13 points on generic congressional ballot

BY JUSTIN WISE - 10/09/18 12:43 PM EDT

Democrats hold a 13-point lead over Republicans among likely voters on the generic congressional ballot, according to a new poll from CNN.

The CNN survey, which was conducted by SSRS and released on Tuesday, found that 54 percent of likely voters favor a Democratic congressional candidate in their district. Forty-one percent of likely voters said they support a GOP candidate.

This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when the party held a 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters, according to CNN.




CNN also reported the 13-point lead for Democrats represents a three-point increase from a similar poll conducted in September. In that survey, 52 percent of likely voters said they favored a Democrat and 42 percent said they favored a Republican.

more
https://thehill.com/business-a-lobbying/410575-poll-dems-lead-gop-by-13-points-on-generic-congressional-ballot
58 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
CNN poll: Democrats are fired up and maintain a strong 2018 lead (Original Post) DonViejo Oct 2018 OP
so much for that GOP Kavanaugh anger surge NewJeffCT Oct 2018 #1
It would be much higher but the Koch brothers have been pumping big bucks elmac Oct 2018 #7
There was a fake WSJ poll watoos Oct 2018 #15
I remember back in 2012 NewJeffCT Oct 2018 #27
It's the bogus narrative they are hoping for Johnny2X2X Oct 2018 #21
"millions of Dem women voters" MyOwnPeace Oct 2018 #35
this dem man BigGermanGuy Oct 2018 #38
You got that right.......... MyOwnPeace Oct 2018 #44
thank you! n/t BigGermanGuy Oct 2018 #46
All Republicans have is gaslighting. nt SunSeeker Oct 2018 #23
gaslighting and purges Hermit-The-Prog Oct 2018 #32
This is all well and good, but only my opinion Oct 2018 #34
Dems had similar big leads in generic polls John Fante Oct 2018 #55
Yes, but.... rlegro Oct 2018 #57
Democratic leaders should take note of the increase in Republican enthusiasm, as well. Honeycombe8 Oct 2018 #2
You talking about the fake WSJ poll? watoos Oct 2018 #17
Okay DownriverDem Oct 2018 #20
Oh heavens, but what of the supposed rising red tide, please don't tell MSNBC's little Log Cabin Funtatlaguy Oct 2018 #3
As the red tide regresses, he'll flail less RhodeIslandOne Oct 2018 #10
Yep, it's the only thing that gets him fully vertical...that and shirtless Putin pix. Funtatlaguy Oct 2018 #11
It gets him more screen time. The expected blue wave doesnt. 7962 Oct 2018 #39
the koch brothers and other RW uber rich are pumping 100's of millions into elmac Oct 2018 #4
That "angry mob" has every right to be angry. Freethinker65 Oct 2018 #5
You bet, being called a "mob" is a badge of honor for me. watoos Oct 2018 #18
my grandmother's nursing home BigGermanGuy Oct 2018 #41
Now THAT... MyOwnPeace Oct 2018 #45
K & R. GOTV! n/t FSogol Oct 2018 #6
Don't get lazy! GOTV! getagrip_already Oct 2018 #8
You CAN NOT say that.......... MyOwnPeace Oct 2018 #49
This poll looks at Likely voters TNLib Oct 2018 #9
I used to live in Tenn. please tell me that Bredesen will beat that evil witch Blackburn. Funtatlaguy Oct 2018 #13
I think he's got a good shot TNLib Oct 2018 #19
Wait? Iliyah Oct 2018 #12
H-O-R-S-E R-A-C-E Stallion Oct 2018 #14
How can this be? Aren't Rs all uber excited now that DeminPennswoods Oct 2018 #16
Yes indeed. nt SunSeeker Oct 2018 #22
Oh-01 Paul Ryans pac is dumping $$$$ to defeat Aftab Norbert Oct 2018 #24
I think we will take the House back. The math for the Senate is a lot harder, unfortunately. StevieM Oct 2018 #25
I think it finishes at 50-50. bearsfootball516 Oct 2018 #28
I think you are probably right. But I always saw Tennessee as the swing state, not North Dakota. StevieM Oct 2018 #30
I think Bredesen is still in it qazplm135 Oct 2018 #51
Texas grantcart Oct 2018 #37
Texas will be much closer than usual, but it's one of those states where I need to see.. bearsfootball516 Oct 2018 #40
If Hispanics in TX turnout at the rate of AA we win by 5% grantcart Oct 2018 #43
never know about nd BigGermanGuy Oct 2018 #42
But I thought ellie Oct 2018 #26
You have a point, ellie........... MyOwnPeace Oct 2018 #48
Fall, Halloween, trick or treat and elections. How fun is that? 2018. Skruffy Oct 2018 #29
Welcome to DU, Skruffy! Rhiannon12866 Oct 2018 #58
A big K&R for this thread! llmart Oct 2018 #31
Vote! ZeroSomeBrains Oct 2018 #33
GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV nycbos Oct 2018 #36
Let's wipe Traitor Don's Radical Cult, formerly the GOP, off the god damned political map!! LBM20 Oct 2018 #47
We Dems need to vote like we are behind and not fall these polls. Run the sprint until iluvtennis Oct 2018 #50
Guess it didn't all blow over, eh McConnell? mcar Oct 2018 #52
Take noth8ng for granted... RobertDevereaux Oct 2018 #53
The Kavanaugh bump! ananda Oct 2018 #54
K&R Scurrilous Oct 2018 #56
 

elmac

(4,642 posts)
7. It would be much higher but the Koch brothers have been pumping big bucks
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:13 PM
Oct 2018

into state elections this last month and those dollars are having an impact.

 

watoos

(7,142 posts)
15. There was a fake WSJ poll
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:39 PM
Oct 2018

that came out right after Kavanaugh got elected. I had to laugh at it, it showed a big surge in Republican enthusiasm. Heck there wasn't even time for the poll to take effect.

Be wary of fake polls meant to demoralize us. Also the corporate media is full of right wing talking points.

NewJeffCT

(56,828 posts)
27. I remember back in 2012
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:28 PM
Oct 2018

was when I first noticed how the media had skewed a poll - it was after the Biden-Ryan VP debate. Most neutral observers would agree that Biden won it fairly handily, but the CNN post debate poll had it tied like 48-48 or something like that. However, if you dug into the numbers, they polled more Republicans than Democrats. Typical presidential races have more Democrats voting than Republicans by several percentage points - even when Reagan won by a landslide in 1984, more Dems voted than Republicans, just that a large swatch of "Reagan" Democrats voted for Reagan. So, while Reagan maybe got 95% of Republicans, Mondale got only 75-80% of Democrats.

If you used normal percentages, Biden wins by a good 10% or more

Johnny2X2X

(19,095 posts)
21. It's the bogus narrative they are hoping for
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:57 PM
Oct 2018

They got riled up for about a week, but it would have been much better for Reps politically if Kavanaugh hadn't been seated. Almost no GOP voters will be voting in November because of Kavanaugh, millions of Dem women voters will be voting because of Kavanaugh though.

MyOwnPeace

(16,936 posts)
35. "millions of Dem women voters"
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:04 PM
Oct 2018

I somehow keep hoping that it's not just "Dem" women that are upset with this s**t-show that's going on - but that women everywhere realize what has been going down and are "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore!"
I mean, really, from the time IQ45 rode down that escalator - didn't we all think that "surely everyone can see what a scam this is?"
And, yes, we've been steamrolled over SO many times since then.
But, again, isn't it time that FINALLY enough people wake up and see WTF is going on?

If not this November, when??

 

BigGermanGuy

(131 posts)
38. this dem man
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:22 PM
Oct 2018

is beyond upset.

I thank my lucky stars I have boys, but I have some nieces that I will burn this country to the ground before I let their uteri be controlled.

Hermit-The-Prog

(33,389 posts)
32. gaslighting and purges
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:46 PM
Oct 2018

gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering

gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures

gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures and electronic voting machine "glitches"

gaslighting and purges and gerrymandering and polling place closures and electronic voting machine "glitches" and Russians

Ah, hell, they have CHEATS.

Overwhelm the cheats -- GOTV!

 

only my opinion

(32 posts)
34. This is all well and good, but
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:56 PM
Oct 2018

remember it is not only the raw totals, but the state by state distribution is important.

John Fante

(3,479 posts)
55. Dems had similar big leads in generic polls
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 04:52 PM
Oct 2018

prior to the 2006 midterms, and took the house easily. There is a correlation.

rlegro

(338 posts)
57. Yes, but....
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 10:19 PM
Oct 2018

Since then, state-level Republicans have been busy purging millions of registered voters from the polls -- and you can bet most of those are Democrats. Then there's hyper-gerrymandering and "caging" of voters. Somewhere I read that in some states, like my own, the result of all these simultaneous vote suppression tactics is that Democrats need a 10 point lead just to be even.

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)
2. Democratic leaders should take note of the increase in Republican enthusiasm, as well.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:09 PM
Oct 2018

AFTER the Kavanaugh hearing. This close to an election, momentum is a factor. What starts as a slight upward trend can hit its height at election time, before it has time to wane. But a month out is far enough for their enthusiasm to wane, if we're lucky, and they don't have another cause to rally their base.

Trump tried it with the "open borders" bill by Democrats that doesn't even exist. I've never seen anything like it. The outright fiction, banking on his supporters being that stupid (which they are).

DownriverDem

(6,230 posts)
20. Okay
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:54 PM
Oct 2018

Do you honestly think the Dem leaders didn't take note of the increase in repub enthusiasm? They have staff all over the internet.

Funtatlaguy

(10,885 posts)
3. Oh heavens, but what of the supposed rising red tide, please don't tell MSNBC's little Log Cabin
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:09 PM
Oct 2018

Math boy nerd Stevie or he might get his gop elephant 🐘 insignia underoos in a wad the next time he’s at his magic board. Prick.

 

elmac

(4,642 posts)
4. the koch brothers and other RW uber rich are pumping 100's of millions into
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:11 PM
Oct 2018

state elections so its still an uphill battle and wouldn't be this hard if citizens united wasn't destroying our Democracy.

Freethinker65

(10,033 posts)
5. That "angry mob" has every right to be angry.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:11 PM
Oct 2018

Angry mob will backfire the way, to some extent, the word deplorable did.

 

watoos

(7,142 posts)
18. You bet, being called a "mob" is a badge of honor for me.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:43 PM
Oct 2018

I tell my right wing friends that we Dems learned from the Tea Party, get ready for a Big Blue wave.

 

BigGermanGuy

(131 posts)
41. my grandmother's nursing home
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:25 PM
Oct 2018

posted a picture of about 30 women holding up a #kavanope sign.

clearly an angry mob.

MyOwnPeace

(16,936 posts)
45. Now THAT...
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:33 PM
Oct 2018

is a good "sign," indeed ( both the "sign" and the actions taken by those veteran citizens!).

YOU GO, GIRLS!!!!

getagrip_already

(14,816 posts)
8. Don't get lazy! GOTV!
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:23 PM
Oct 2018

Don't repeat 2016 where people thought they had the luxury of a protest vote, that there vote wouldn't count, or it wasn't needed.

We NEED every vote, in every state.

Period.

MyOwnPeace

(16,936 posts)
49. You CAN NOT say that..........
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:45 PM
Oct 2018

loud enough, often enough, and STRONG enough!
There can be NO DOUBT that it was that kind of thinking that got us in this mess. Not that we deserved it (Lord knows NOBODY deserves THIS mess!), but it DID happen.

It CANNOT happen again!

GET OUT THE VOTE!!!!!!!!


TNLib

(1,819 posts)
9. This poll looks at Likely voters
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:25 PM
Oct 2018

I think it's going to be much higher with RV (registered voters) as long as turn out is good.

TNLib

(1,819 posts)
19. I think he's got a good shot
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 01:49 PM
Oct 2018

He seems to be polling well and I've been getting voting cards in the mail from my Republican neighbor to vote for Bredesen. So I'm seeing some good signs.

Norbert

(6,040 posts)
24. Oh-01 Paul Ryans pac is dumping $$$$ to defeat Aftab
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:20 PM
Oct 2018

It's still a dead heat. I think Aftab has a real shot.

I just hope so many Congressional seats flip that the orange lard ass couldn't pass a fart without congressional approval.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
25. I think we will take the House back. The math for the Senate is a lot harder, unfortunately.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:24 PM
Oct 2018

I do think that we may very well hold our seats in Montana, Missouri and Indiana. But Tennessee is a hard pick-up, North Dakota was always the hardest seat to hold, and Manchin may have infuriated WV liberals and moderates, who were willing to tolerate an awful lot.

I think we are very likely to pick up seats in Nevada and Arizona.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
28. I think it finishes at 50-50.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:30 PM
Oct 2018

Wins in Arizona, Nevada, Montana, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia and Florida puts us with 51, but North Dakota is almost a lost cause at this point, she's getting drilled. So it ends 50-50 and Pence has the tiebreak.

StevieM

(10,500 posts)
30. I think you are probably right. But I always saw Tennessee as the swing state, not North Dakota.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:37 PM
Oct 2018

I had Heidi as a lost cause from pretty much the beginning, since ND is so conservative, her opponent is already a member of Congress, and she never had the popularity of Manchin.

I thought Bredesen could pull it out, especially against Marsha Blackburn, but it looks like he won't.

I don't really think Manchin will lose, I just think it is possible that the base is so unhappy that they don't support him. More likely he will hold on.

And, yes, that does leave the Senate 50/50, which used to mean power sharing at the committee level, but now probably won't.

bearsfootball516

(6,377 posts)
40. Texas will be much closer than usual, but it's one of those states where I need to see..
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:23 PM
Oct 2018

A Democrat actually win before I really believe it'll happen. My guess is that Cruz wins something like 52-47.

grantcart

(53,061 posts)
43. If Hispanics in TX turnout at the rate of AA we win by 5%
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:29 PM
Oct 2018

Pollsters have no model for these 2 candidates

Big turnout among Dems

Med increase of 18- 29

Med increase on Latino vote

And we win

Fortunately move on DSCC and Perez all invested big in GOTV.

It will be close but it is doable.

 

BigGermanGuy

(131 posts)
42. never know about nd
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:28 PM
Oct 2018

she's behind, but her no vote saw a big swell of donations. could be what it takes to fire up the base there to try to get her over the top.

MyOwnPeace

(16,936 posts)
48. You have a point, ellie...........
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:40 PM
Oct 2018

who do you believe anymore? We've got a well-documented history of showing how the media slants/directs/leans their coverage to increase interest. How else can you explain the 24/7 coverage of a low-polling reality show loser being the top news story every day for 2 years and running?
We have to remain firm - strong - dedicated to GETTING OUT THE VOTE. There can be no complacency - no belief that we've got it covered - no allowing the media to tell anybody that all is well and "the ins" can win no matter what.

It is our fight - we must fight - we must win!

 

Skruffy

(48 posts)
29. Fall, Halloween, trick or treat and elections. How fun is that? 2018.
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:35 PM
Oct 2018

We are getting to the home stretch and we are sitting in a good place. Time to put the head down, and really get at it. I am excited.

Not investigating if Kav plotted (planned with a buddy) to rape a girl, bothers people to say the very least. We do not have that short of attention spans, yet. I really rallied with what Harris said the other day, on the Senate floor.

Yard signs in the falling, colorful leaves along with pumpkins carved by artist, creative Liberals.

There are so many more of us.

llmart

(15,546 posts)
31. A big K&R for this thread!
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 02:39 PM
Oct 2018

Let's keep working to get the huge turnout we need. Don't let up until it's over. Don't let the naysayers get you down.

We need every last person to do whatever they can.

nycbos

(6,035 posts)
36. GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV GOTV
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 03:09 PM
Oct 2018

Flight to the end don't get complacent.


Don't tempt fate




Don't tempt the wrath from high atop the thing.


iluvtennis

(19,868 posts)
50. We Dems need to vote like we are behind and not fall these polls. Run the sprint until
Tue Oct 9, 2018, 04:02 PM
Oct 2018

we cross the finish line.

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