Hunter lead slips as counting continues; Campa-Najjar trails by just 7,782 votes
Source: East County Magazine
On Election night, indicted Congressman Duncan D. Hunter led challenger Ammar Campa Najjar by nearly 9%. But as of tonight, Hunters lead has slipped to just 4.3% counting both Riverside and San Diego counties, or a difference of 10,046 votes out of 231,800 votes cast.
More importantly, in San Diego, which has over 10 times more voters in the 50th Congressional District than Riverside, Hunters lead is a scant 4.6%, a margin of just 7,782 votes overall. Countywide, the San Diego Registrar reports 112,000 ballots not yet tallied, though its unclear how many are in the 50th Congressional district.
Hunter has 52.17% of the vote locally, compared to 47.83% for Campa-Najjar, who has been steadily gaining ground as late mail-in and provisional ballots favoring Democrats are counted.
Regardless of the final tally, this is clearly the closest race ever in this once reliably conservative district.
Read more: https://www.eastcountymagazine.org/hunter-lead-slips-counting-continues-campa-najjar-trails-just-7782-votes
CaliforniaPeggy
(149,737 posts)Even if Hunter eventually wins, it won't be the rout that it could have been.
SunSeeker
(51,745 posts)RockRaven
(15,032 posts)Even with the indictment, it never seemed possible.
It's the second reddest district in the state (tied for 2nd), behind only McCarthy's.
Liberty Belle
(9,538 posts)They predicted Hunter would win by a mere 3% or so. Given his huge victory margins in the past. this has to be unsettling for the local GOP. But Republicans are becoming so unpopular here in CA that San Diego's GOP mayor recently quipped people have to come see him in the zoo soon as the last of an endangered species.
quakerboy
(13,921 posts)In this blue wave election, and with hunter being under indictment for fraud.. If thats not a recipe to defeat him, how is any other year going to be better?
Liberty Belle
(9,538 posts)Ammar Campa-Najjar is smart and experienced in the Obama White House and Labor Dept. He's of Palestinian and Latino heritage and also has worked for a Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.
Unfortunately his grandfather was accused of being a terrorist at the Munich Olympics. Though Campa-Najjar never knew his grandfather, Hunter's campaign ran racist ads accusing Campa-Najjar of being a sleeper cell terrorist, claiming his father was a terrorist, all totally untrue but it could have cost Campa-Najjar those precious few percentage points he needed.
There is also a lot of anti-Arabic/Middle Eastern and anti-Latino sentiment among many voters here, unfortunately, and it's not exactly a bastion of labor union supporters either.
There were other primary contenders who might have fared better including an ex-Navy Seal officer who serves on a rural school board and a woman who serves on the Farm Bureau (she's also an environmentalist, and protecting our environment is important to many people here), as well as a woman elected to the healthcare district board who could have ripped him apart on healthcare. The two women dropped out early so weren't on the ballot in June.
For an open seat, since there is no requirement to live in the district, you could even see a big-name Democrat from San Diego step in and run, maybe someone who has served in the Assembly, State Senator, or San Diego City Council. Heck, the Republicans are already talking about running a carpet-bagger who doesn't live in the district.
If Campa-Najjar does run again, he might get more money when his is the only election given how close he came, as opposed to donors at the national level being spread thin among many races, some of which were polling neck and neck much earlier on.
Difficult to win? Yes, but I no longer think it's impossible. I think the key is to run someone the rural voters can relate to, but that doesn't mean they have to be lily white. Just someone with some experience who will work to end rural poverty, help family farmers, protect open spaces, get us better fire protection, and still excite the urban core voters. This district really needs good-paying jobs; there aren't any in the inland area and unemployment is high. We don't have a hospital to served the inland region; some people have to drive an hour or two to the nearest hospital.
Ammar did a good job connecting with voters individually - he comes across as very sincere and caring, and did get some cross party votes--quite a lot of them apparently. So tough call on whether he should try again, or someone else. But it can only be won with a lot of money given the unusually vast geographic spread of this district, which spans two counties and includes mountains, rural and desert areas as well as portions of lots of different cities.
rpannier
(24,342 posts)Within two years one of two things is likely to happen (IMO): 1. Hunter will be exonerated and he will run in 2020 and get re-elected. 2. He'll be convicted and be gone, replaced by a Republican that will offend the district less
I am not from San Diego, so I do not claim to be an expert on the district. It is just a guess
deurbano
(2,896 posts)And geez, he's has still come so close! (Especially in a midterm.) I do think someone who is a slightly better fit for the district (like the former Navy Seal) could have pulled it off if it remains this close. The terrorist crap is so infuriating, though. We shouldn't have to pick our candidates based on how the GOP will exploit prejudice to whip up the votes against them... even though that's what they will inevitably do.
BumRushDaShow
(129,662 posts)yet winning the race there to date, although it hasn't been called yet (they have until December 14th to certify and absentee/overseas ballots are still being tallied, with McMurray (D) gaining - currently 2,200 behind and falling).