Minimum wage bill could eliminate 1.3 million jobs, CBO says
Source: Politico
By SARAH FERRIS and IAN KULLGREN 07/08/2019 02:31 PM EDT Updated 07/08/2019 03:40 PM EDT
Democrats signature policy proposal to raise the federal minimum wage would cost roughly 1.3 million jobs nationwide, even as it boosts wages for 17 million workers and lift 1.3 million families out of poverty, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office released Monday.
The report which offers the most detailed analysis to date of the proposed $15 hourly federal wage is a mixed bag for House Democratic leaders, who are just days away from putting the legislation on the floor.
The Democratic bill, which would phase in the $15 minimum over five years, only recently won enough support from across the caucus to reach a floor vote.
CBOs finding that a $15 hourly minimum would result in 1.3 million jobs lost was a median estimate. CBO's upper estimate of 3.7 million jobs lost poses another test for Democratic centrists, many of whom were skeptical about the impact on local businesses. (CBO's lower estimate was that the number of jobs lost would be "about zero."
The nonpartisan agency also predicted a $9 billion drop in real income in 2025 largely the result of a drop in businesses income, as well as price increases for goods and services across the economy.
Read more: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/08/minimum-wage-bill-eliminate-13m-jobs-cbo-says-1400531
Brainfodder
(6,423 posts)Bickering when it's not even close to inflation!
Wellstone ruled
(34,661 posts)maxsolomon
(33,345 posts)all that matters is the quantity of jobs, never the quality.
paulkienitz
(1,296 posts)The price of people's work has surprisingly little effect on how many people are hired. You need the number of people you need.
Of course, as automation increases, this becomes less true. But I don't think the answer to the coming automation employment crisis is to price human skill so cheaply that even a robot can't undercut them. What wage would that be, seventeen cents an hour?
House of Roberts
(5,177 posts)Maybe we could lose some jobs to automation, which would have happened anyway. The best time to raise it is now, with unemployment so low.
Bernardo de La Paz
(49,010 posts)The extra wages would be plowed back into consumption, so more furniture sold, more cars, more clothing, better quality food, toys for children, etc.
All that means extra jobs making, shipping, selling, and servicing that stuff.
Even increased sales of used cars would boost the economy, because that raises prices up the chain as well. When fewer good but used cars are in supply, then people are more likely to buy a new car. All of that boosts the economy and create jobs.
The calculation was likely strictly constrained around only the jobs directly affected and not accounting for newly created jobs that result.
Paladin
(28,265 posts)It's always bullshit.
pecosbob
(7,541 posts)First phase takes effect January 1st.
tenderfoot
(8,437 posts)eom
cstanleytech
(26,298 posts)businesses tax rate to the average wage of its employees.
The more employees they have that earn say for example 500% over the federal poverty level then the lower their taxes the more employees they have that earn under that then the higher their taxes.
5starlib
(191 posts)That's where the job losses will come from. There'll be no one taking your orders anymore. It'll all be robots and touchscreens.
PSPS
(13,603 posts)5starlib
(191 posts)Let it sink in. Let it go nationwide and it'll happen in a hurry.
durablend
(7,460 posts)Workers should be paying employers for the privilege to work for them
Xolodno
(6,395 posts)...but its probably true.
Price paid for not raising it incrementally every few years.
Rather than complain about it, lets offer solutions. Such as...
1. Extend longer term unemployment benefits, while....
2. Enrolled in a public Community College.
At least they won't be working 50-60 hours a week at two or more minimum wage jobs. Refusing to raise the minimum wage has created this economic shock.
DrToast
(6,414 posts)Raise corporate taxes and increase the earned income tax credit.
Everyman Jackal
(271 posts)Their taxes are actually paid by people who buy their products. A simplified answer.
Get Me Outta Here
(97 posts)Lets say $350/hour. Lower if we want even more millions of jobs.
Midnight Writer
(21,768 posts)DrToast
(6,414 posts)This is in line with what the economic research suggests.
I think we're barking up the wrong tree. I think raising the earned income tax credit (with a corresponding business tax increase to pay for it) is a much better way to put money in people's pocket, as it eliminates wages as a factor when businesses decide on whether or not to hire.
PSPS
(13,603 posts)PSPS
(13,603 posts)In Seattle, the much-ballyhooed-lost-jobs chant from local RW outrage-port disc jockeys made the same prediction. It became law anyway and, guess what? It had no negative effect at all. Isn't it funny how, when people have more money to spend, business actually expands! Really!
ellie
(6,929 posts)while labor built this country, greed will destroy it.