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DonViejo

(60,536 posts)
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 04:20 PM Jul 2019

Minimum wage bill could eliminate 1.3 million jobs, CBO says

Source: Politico


By SARAH FERRIS and IAN KULLGREN 07/08/2019 02:31 PM EDT Updated 07/08/2019 03:40 PM EDT

Democrats’ signature policy proposal to raise the federal minimum wage would cost roughly 1.3 million jobs nationwide, even as it boosts wages for 17 million workers and lift 1.3 million families out of poverty, according to a report by the Congressional Budget Office released Monday.

The report — which offers the most detailed analysis to date of the proposed $15 hourly federal wage — is a mixed bag for House Democratic leaders, who are just days away from putting the legislation on the floor.

The Democratic bill, which would phase in the $15 minimum over five years, only recently won enough support from across the caucus to reach a floor vote.

CBO’s finding that a $15 hourly minimum would result in 1.3 million jobs lost was a median estimate. CBO's upper estimate of 3.7 million jobs lost poses another test for Democratic centrists, many of whom were skeptical about the impact on local businesses. (CBO's lower estimate was that the number of jobs lost would be "about zero.&quot

The nonpartisan agency also predicted a $9 billion drop in “real income” in 2025 — largely the result of a drop in businesses’ income, as well as price increases for goods and services across the economy.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/story/2019/07/08/minimum-wage-bill-eliminate-13m-jobs-cbo-says-1400531

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Minimum wage bill could eliminate 1.3 million jobs, CBO says (Original Post) DonViejo Jul 2019 OP
Meanwhile is should be over $23/hr for inflation? Brainfodder Jul 2019 #1
More total B.S.. Wellstone ruled Jul 2019 #2
Just think how many jobs would be created if it was lowered! maxsolomon Jul 2019 #3
demand for labor is inelastic paulkienitz Jul 2019 #6
What, are they using Paul Ryan math to calculate this? House of Roberts Jul 2019 #4
Prob not counting jobs gained because working poor always spends money right away for survival. Bernardo de La Paz Jul 2019 #5
The job loss crap is trotted out, every time there's an effort to boost the minimim wage. Paladin Jul 2019 #7
We just passed it here in Nevada pecosbob Jul 2019 #8
bollocks tenderfoot Jul 2019 #9
I still think the best way to improve wages might be to focus on the linking a cstanleytech Jul 2019 #10
I think it'll speed up automation at retail/restaurant jobs 5starlib Jul 2019 #11
That prediction has already been proven wrong where it's been implemented. PSPS Jul 2019 #20
Give it time...most just changed the minimum wage in the past year or so 5starlib Jul 2019 #21
By the CBO's logic durablend Jul 2019 #12
Probably what no one wants to hear.... Xolodno Jul 2019 #13
Simple solution DrToast Jul 2019 #17
Corporations don't pay taxes. Everyman Jackal Jul 2019 #23
Corollary: Maximum wage adds millions of jobs Get Me Outta Here Jul 2019 #14
So, the rise of wages from the Labor Union Movement damaged our economy? I don't think so. Midnight Writer Jul 2019 #15
Don't blame the CBO DrToast Jul 2019 #16
LOL. The fact is that "economic research suggestions" are contradicted by actual results PSPS Jul 2019 #19
What a load. Their 'estimate' is directly contradicted by actual results PSPS Jul 2019 #18
Meanwhile, ellie Jul 2019 #22

maxsolomon

(33,345 posts)
3. Just think how many jobs would be created if it was lowered!
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 04:59 PM
Jul 2019

all that matters is the quantity of jobs, never the quality.

paulkienitz

(1,296 posts)
6. demand for labor is inelastic
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 06:08 PM
Jul 2019

The price of people's work has surprisingly little effect on how many people are hired. You need the number of people you need.

Of course, as automation increases, this becomes less true. But I don't think the answer to the coming automation employment crisis is to price human skill so cheaply that even a robot can't undercut them. What wage would that be, seventeen cents an hour?

House of Roberts

(5,177 posts)
4. What, are they using Paul Ryan math to calculate this?
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 05:00 PM
Jul 2019

Maybe we could lose some jobs to automation, which would have happened anyway. The best time to raise it is now, with unemployment so low.

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,010 posts)
5. Prob not counting jobs gained because working poor always spends money right away for survival.
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 05:54 PM
Jul 2019

The extra wages would be plowed back into consumption, so more furniture sold, more cars, more clothing, better quality food, toys for children, etc.

All that means extra jobs making, shipping, selling, and servicing that stuff.

Even increased sales of used cars would boost the economy, because that raises prices up the chain as well. When fewer good but used cars are in supply, then people are more likely to buy a new car. All of that boosts the economy and create jobs.

The calculation was likely strictly constrained around only the jobs directly affected and not accounting for newly created jobs that result.

Paladin

(28,265 posts)
7. The job loss crap is trotted out, every time there's an effort to boost the minimim wage.
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 06:12 PM
Jul 2019

It's always bullshit.

cstanleytech

(26,298 posts)
10. I still think the best way to improve wages might be to focus on the linking a
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 06:57 PM
Jul 2019

businesses tax rate to the average wage of its employees.
The more employees they have that earn say for example 500% over the federal poverty level then the lower their taxes the more employees they have that earn under that then the higher their taxes.

 

5starlib

(191 posts)
11. I think it'll speed up automation at retail/restaurant jobs
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 07:06 PM
Jul 2019

That's where the job losses will come from. There'll be no one taking your orders anymore. It'll all be robots and touchscreens.

 

5starlib

(191 posts)
21. Give it time...most just changed the minimum wage in the past year or so
Tue Jul 9, 2019, 10:40 PM
Jul 2019

Let it sink in. Let it go nationwide and it'll happen in a hurry.

Xolodno

(6,395 posts)
13. Probably what no one wants to hear....
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 07:13 PM
Jul 2019

...but its probably true.

Price paid for not raising it incrementally every few years.

Rather than complain about it, lets offer solutions. Such as...

1. Extend longer term unemployment benefits, while....

2. Enrolled in a public Community College.

At least they won't be working 50-60 hours a week at two or more minimum wage jobs. Refusing to raise the minimum wage has created this economic shock.

 

Everyman Jackal

(271 posts)
23. Corporations don't pay taxes.
Wed Jul 10, 2019, 12:45 AM
Jul 2019

Their taxes are actually paid by people who buy their products. A simplified answer.

 
14. Corollary: Maximum wage adds millions of jobs
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 08:18 PM
Jul 2019

Let’s say $350/hour. Lower if we want even more millions of jobs.

DrToast

(6,414 posts)
16. Don't blame the CBO
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 08:56 PM
Jul 2019

This is in line with what the economic research suggests.

I think we're barking up the wrong tree. I think raising the earned income tax credit (with a corresponding business tax increase to pay for it) is a much better way to put money in people's pocket, as it eliminates wages as a factor when businesses decide on whether or not to hire.

PSPS

(13,603 posts)
18. What a load. Their 'estimate' is directly contradicted by actual results
Mon Jul 8, 2019, 11:41 PM
Jul 2019

In Seattle, the much-ballyhooed-lost-jobs chant from local RW outrage-port disc jockeys made the same prediction. It became law anyway and, guess what? It had no negative effect at all. Isn't it funny how, when people have more money to spend, business actually expands! Really!

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