Tropical storm Humberto likely to form near Florida, but final destination uncertain
Source: Washington Post
The tropics have been relatively quiet for the past week, but theyre not going to stay that way for long. A tropical storm which would be dubbed Humberto is likely to form between the Bahamas and Floridas east coast and could affect parts of the southeastern United States in the coming days. In addition, an area much farther east in the tropical Atlantic also bears watching.
A disturbance over the central and southeastern Bahamas has become better organized but is a very challenging system to forecast. Its ragged, sloppy structure right now makes it difficult for computer models to project its future path.
We do know its favored to develop. In fact, the National Hurricane Center gives it a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days. A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system Thursday afternoon, and the Hurricane Center may begin issuing regular advisories later today.
The most immediate concern is that, according to the Hurricane Center, the disturbance will bring heavy rains (1 to 3 inches or so) and gusty winds in portions of the northwestern Bahamas that were hammered by Hurricane Dorian.
Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/09/12/tropical-storm-humberto-likely-form-near-florida-final-destination-uncertain/
Oughtta ask Trump where the storm is heading.
yaesu
(8,020 posts)to predict its path.
OxQQme
(2,550 posts)BumRushDaShow
(129,458 posts)It will have to form first before the models start zeroing in on a better consensus.
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Too early to tell, wait n see
BumRushDaShow
(129,458 posts)had it going smack into South Jersey like Sandy!
(am hoping that doesn't verify though )
Baclava
(12,047 posts)Keep it outta the Gulf please
TIA
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)Maybe that's not the Euro, but I can't imagine such a big disparity.
BumRushDaShow
(129,458 posts)(where the Euro sent it up to NJ) but was slower... and then in runs after that, the GFS lost the storm, then it found it and sent it to the GOM.
The current (as of this post) 6z GFS is running and showing it (at least out to 60) right along the FL coast before starting to recurve out.
I think now that it is "officially" a TS (Humberto), the models will hopefully get the circulation data from the recons and be able to refine potential tracks.
packman
(16,296 posts)Ready for Act II?
louis-t
(23,297 posts)JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,365 posts)I think Hurricane Hazel did a number on our neighbor, Toronto, back in the day.
Stay alert, Louis, stay sharpie.
louis-t
(23,297 posts)right?
JustABozoOnThisBus
(23,365 posts)Better it should befuddle the football team at THE Ohio State U.
Go blue.
RhodeIslandOne
(5,042 posts)"But not as big as me, no way, I was the biggest ever. I was man of the year in Michigan"