people have thought they had a cold when in fact they had a coronavirus infection.

Corona viruses make up the majority of common cold cases. Most are not deadly. However, this new strain comes from the same same lineage as SARS and MIRS corona viruses.

from Beijing. That one was in Seattle.

With that being said, it was confirmed yesterday that they have seen 3rd generation cases of this virus. So someone(3) who was in contact with someone(2) who was in contact with someone(1) who was in contact with the original cause of the virus, or patient zero were infected.

This virus attacks the lungs of the host. The alveoli in particular I have read. People in Wuhan are collapsing due to CO2 poisoning.

So far, they are reporting it is not an air born virus.

The previous viruses in this specific lineage have become airborne, (SARS and MIRS). I wouldn’t be surprised if it makes that leap.

there have not been reports yet of n-CoV2019 killing young healthy adults. It is more comparable to common flu, and perhaps less contagious.

The simple fact is, there’s not enough information available yet to know how bad it is. The last projected fatality rate I heard from experts was around 3-4%. Even they cautioned not to take that at face value. There’s not enough data to plug in to their models to properly map this thing out. That’s why the CDC is using a robot to monitor the guy in Washington. The best thing is to treat it like the plague and just be happy if it turns out to be nothing later.

but killing young healthy adults - the immune system in overload - was the hallmark of SARS & MERS. We are not there yet. That's all I am saying.

The information isn’t being put out there yet. I will say this though. Of the 800 confirmed cases in China, almost 200 are deemed severe and the death toll stands at 25. In addition, China has taken unprecedented steps to shutter some of its cities and prevent movement. As I’ve said, I don’t know the personal details of those who are sick. I don’t know if any of them are young and healthy or not. But China wouldn’t be spending millions of dollars and shutting down New Year celebrations for nothing. There’s something we don’t know yet.

but early reports suggest that is less contagious, and less dangerous that the common flu.

Dr Yi Guan. SARS researcher.

https://crofsblogs.typepad.com/h5n1/2020/01/this-time-im-scared-sars-virologist-warns-wuhan-virus-far-worse-as-china-locks-down-second-city.html

and reportedly restricted to the old and infirm. SARS and MERS took out young healthy adults. He should have been more scared last time.

If not, you seem pretty dismissive of someone who knows much more about the viruses than you.

While every precaution must be taken, Dr Yi Guan should know better than be making alarmist statements to the press.

You guys may be quite busy at that point, especially if the horse is still out of the barn.

Meanwhile, I am reviewing the ready.gov site and invoking an emergency plan.

Last edited Fri Jan 24, 2020, 08:49 AM - Edit history (1)

I am not in the loop.

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

At this link, you can read up and compare some of the raw data that has been collected on this outbreak.

http://virological.org/t/epidemiological-data-from-the-ncov-2019-outbreak-early-descriptions-from-publicly-available-data/337



This link is to a google document with all of the raw data including demographics where available.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1itaohdPiAeniCXNlntNztZ_oRvjh0HsGuJXUJWET008/htmlview


And I’m not sure who it was that asked, I can’t find it now, but the case in Washington was a 30yo male.

here's info from CDC https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/summary.html

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/302/5643/276

I read this earlier: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/22/health/snakes-wuhan-coronavirus-outbreak-conversation-partner/index.html


thank you for the links...