Last edited Thu Jan 30, 2020, 10:02 PM - Edit history (1)

health emergency.
Professor Didier Houssin, Chair of the emergency committee, questioned the science behind the decision of countries who had put the restrictions in place.

He said these restrictions were not an “example to follow but a decision to reconsider”.

and will be quite ill from it by November

And that patients are being sent home instead of being evaluated by doctors who are stretched thin in China.

It may be that the spread only appears to be slowing because of less testing.

it's a trick of how they are presenting the graph. If you run the actula numbers it still exponential.

exponential would put the estimated infections at 13,648. (based on an R0 of 2.6, an incubation period of 3.5 days, starting with 2019 last Saturday at noon.)

It increased by Tuesday midnight by a factor of 2.7 (roughly 3 days later) to 6,000+; that would put it at 13, 648 in another 3.5 days (this Saturday). Linear would be 8,479.8 - we passed that early this morning and are at ~10,000 with another day and a half to reach the linear endpoint we've already passed.

it will burn itself out as it runs out of new hosts.

But it has not started slowing yet. I was primarily responding to the assertion that it was now spreading linearly - rather than exponentially

develop a plan of treatment as well as to start quarantining people that contract it to stop the spread.

it had already dropped to a linear, rather than exponential, progression. While it may - it has not yet.

I was just going to post this. Good headline--very descriptive.

Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO after 1st person-to-person US case reported
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/world-health-organization-decide-coronavirus-global-health-emergency/story?id=68639487


It's only the sixth time the WHO has declared a global health emergency.
By
Erin Schumaker
January 30, 2020, 1:57 PM
8 min read
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHO

1:32
Coronavirus declared global health emergency by WHOThe World Health Organization declared coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern at a news conference Thursday in Geneva.Fabrice Coffrini/AFP via Getty Images

The World Health Organization declared coronavirus a public health emergency of international concern at a news conference Thursday in Geneva.

This is only the sixth time such an emergency has been declared, with past examples including the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the Zika virus.

The WHO reserves the designation for "extraordinary events" that pose a public health risk by threatening to spread internationally.

The first case of human-to-human coronavirus transmission in the U.S. has been confirmed, in a patient in Illinois, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Thursday.

The transmission occurred between a husband and wife, who were in close contact with one another. The wife, a woman in her 60s, had traveled to Wuhan, China, and was diagnosed with the virus last week. The husband, a Chicago resident also in his 60s and who has underlying health problems, had not traveled to China. ................................

just not the right ones

Corona virus, just like Flu or SARS can give serious illness and risk of death. Of course, it can spread – viruses, by their very nature, are designed to spread easily. They do so by creating novel or unusual combinations that fool our immune systems, and new or rare forms can spread rapidly. To date the vast majority of cases have been in China, and now we are already seeing a small number of cases elsewhere. But numbers can be misleading – based on the reporting of equivalent outbreaks in the past, mortality rates are often over-reported. However, my response to the virus should be: Don’t Panic