but one that has been with us for awhile but that people put off as a cold and thus never went to the doctor?

easily be the one facing China right now.

Consider the incubation period and the number of people who could have been exposed before symptoms showed up. And then the number of people that those secondary exposures came in contact with.

Exposure in a plane, bus, train, restaurant, shopping center, supermarket, or any other place where there are large numbers of people. Only a few in such crowds might actually pick up the virus, but then everyone they come in contact with is then at risk.

Since the virus is airborne and also remains active on surfaces for some hours, it can spread easily.

If it is no more serious than an ordinary case of flu, there isn't much for most people to worry about. Seniors, very young children, and those with immune disorders will be at risk, as with other types of flu.

But if it is more serious than the usual flu? Then we should be concerned about secondary spreading.

I can't find much info on how bad or mild this virus is on people who get it. Current death rates don't indicate much unless the numbers include the age and general health before being infected. Recovery time is so long that the statistics on recovery vs death lag behind the infection rate.

They are fast mutators and it’s fine tuning for its new host.

and our media has been discrediting the CDC every chance they get........

Don't trust anything the Chinese saying it isn't that bad......Knowing them, what would you expect them to say about this??????????

That's one reason I am so concerned. The infection and death rates are no doubt higher than they are reporting.

And viruses do mutate. The mutations are generally more dangerous as they get accustomed to the host and find ways around our defenses.

Even if I was only 30 years old, I would be at risk because I have always been very susceptible to viral infections. Add to that my actual age as a senior and I am in a risk group. So I err on the side of caution now as I watch how this develops.

out of China say that the "hospitals" for those stricken have no doctors or nurses. The report said that they are little more than warehouses for the stricken. There again, I don't believe that the Chinese are giving true information. However we have been told by the Chinese that all the nurses and doctors in the hospitals that were taking care of those originally infected have all come down with this virus.

One serious worry is that it apparently has a 14 day incubation period, so those who get infected are wandering around spreading it for fourteen days before they become symptomatic. Wow

The animal kingdom is going to reclaim the world.....Avian Flu, Swine Flu, and now this coming from weird animal parts sold as food in open air markets.....sounds like living conditions in the dark ages.....

BTW, the 1918 nightmare influenza is now thought by researchers to be a disease spread by birds, and they think they have traced back to the point zero (first reported cases) as being documented in a small rural eastern Colorado prairie town. They are thinking that it was Avian, because that it's arrival dates coincide with the same time the migratory birds pass over Colorado in mass.........Weird, huh?????

for how fast it spread in China such as a shared food a number of the people ate?

especially considering how hard the Chinese are cracking down on quarantines. Over 30,000 reported cases in China now and probably more since they aren't very reliable on reporting. Over 900 deaths in China, more than the total was for SARS.

There are cases now in Japan, Philippines, US, and Europe. Second hand transmission occurred in at least one US case out of the 12 cases here. And how many people did those 12 come in contact with before they had symptoms and were quarantined? It takes 14 days for the symptoms to show. So, for 2 weeks, an infected person is exposing everyone they come in contact with before they know that they are sick..

It's good that nations around the world are on top of this now, to contain it before it goes much farther. There still might be more cases outside of China showing up from exposure to infected people before they knew they were sick. Takes time for them to show up.

It's not something you get from eating bad food. It started with live animals in a Chinese market. The animals had the virus. It mutated and passed to people. Now it is passing from person to person. Reports are conflicting about how well it passes in the air from coughing or sneezing. Apparently the virus is "heavy" for a virus, so it shouldn't go too far in the air. Close contact is the greatest risk.

to a relatively small area not to mention we do not know what the primary source in the area was of people catching it but the unanswered question is it spreading as fast outside of China? Or in other words is it the same exponential new infection rate the same and growing or is it pretty much holding steady for the most part?
If its holding steady then surely that is a good thing and means the quarantine is working to keep it largely contained, correct?

that the numbers in China are now at 40,000. We do know specifically where it started in China. It was an outdoor market in the city of Wuhan, population of a few million. It has spread beyond Wuhan to other parts of China pretty fast because it stsrted just before the Chinese New Year when people travelled to visit relatives.

There are over 20 countries that have cases. As of now, it amounts to just a few in each country. By the time cases were found in other countries, the world already knew about it from China's experience. So people outside of China were quarantined as soon as they came down with symptoms. At the same time, visits to and from China were banned by every country. No business shipments in or out of China, either.

So there's a good chance it is being contained. But the CDC and WHO say that we can't be sure yet because we don't know yet how many other people might have been .exposed during the 2 weeks that the infected ones didn't know yet that they were sick. We should have a better idea in another 2 weeks if other people besides the known infected ones cime down with it. If they do, then there will be another cluster of people for each person who comes down with it.

Meantime, treatment centers are using strict .sanitation protections for medical people treating the sick so they don't get sick and carry it to others.

So we should have a better idea in a couple weeks. It probably won't spread much in countries outside of China because we've done a better job of isolating and treating people than China did.

Last edited Mon Feb 10, 2020, 02:45 AM - Edit history (1)

the virus originated in China from animals and then spreaf to humans? Only hospitals with infected patients could spread it.

secondary infections outside of China, person to person, not in a hospital setting.

In China, the hospital staff did not have sufficient pritection, e.g. face masks, gloves, disinfectants.

It has been established by WHO that it is airborne. No direct contact necessary, just breathing the same air, as with other versions of the flu.

in which case they shut down the internet (very predictable) because of russian disinformation so everyone has to listen to talk radio proclaiming trump is king.....

It makes sense, since they didn't know at first that they were dealing with a new infectious agent and that patients should have been isolated.

There were 40 infected health care workers, 10 from a single infected person (along with 4 additional patients). Only 17 patients were infected in the hospital. MRSA doesn't infect healthcare workers; it infects patients.

virus popped up.

Viruses spread by air more than by contact, but the probability of spread by direct contact remains.

so it was the contrast with what I thought I learned that caught me off guard (so I went back to check on my understanding).

It was an early version of H1N1 and spread throughout the US. (Don't know about other nations).

I was 8 years old. My 3 siblings and I had it at the same time. They recovered well. I nearly died from it. On my way back to school, I asked a friend how much I had missed. She said not much because so many kids (and teachers) were out sick that the teachers and subs did not even try to teach. They just let the kids who showed up do puzzles, games, or read or tell stories.

Now, at 70, I am again in a risk group. Also at risk due to other health factors. I'm very vulnerable to flu and cold viruses and secondary viral bronchitis. So I am watching the news on this one, taking vitamins, and avoiding close exposure to children, as I do every flu season. Cannot get flu shots due to allergies to its components. Tried a non-allergic version of it last year and got sick from it. Tried to stock up on face masks but local stores are sold out.

Doc said I had it like an adult would have it and was out of school for 3 weeks. Wonder if that was the same as your family had. I was quarantined to my bedroom since my 74yo grandmother lived with us.

Worried about the coronavirus. I work in a fairly diverse department with quite a few international IT people (lots of travel), and 19yo son is scheduled for his first cruise (to the Bahamas on RC Princess of the Seas) with his GF’s family this summer. I’d rather he stay close to home, but according to him, “Mom’s a worry wart.”

one my family had in 1958. My husband and I both had Hong Kong flu in 1970. He got it worse than I did. Apparently, my immune system was prepared from my previous exposure to its 'cousin' and fought it off better, although I still caught it.

By summer, this should be under control, I hope, so your son should be ok. You are in a vulnerable situation, as I'm sure you know. Probably the best thing you can do is wash your hands often, avoid hand-shaking if you can, and don't get too close to recent travelers. Also, avoid touching your face, especially eyes and mouth, unless you have just washed your hands thoroughly.

With the world aware now, and all countries using quarantines of sick people, your chances of getting it are probably not high. Just use caution and be safe.

I'm retired now so it's easier for me to control who I am exposed to. My doctor advised me to take an antihistamine daily now because my susceptibility comes from chronic congestion due to multiple allergies. The congestion provides a good breeding environment for microbes, so when I catch something, it multiplies and I usually get it worse than most people. It's a good precaution for me even against regular flu and colds. Plus vitamins.

Thank you for sharing your experience.

...in the event of a major North American outbreak.

but I doubt it's much of an iceberg, more a boomlet. For one thing, the initial cases outside China are quarantined. So this is off to a slower start than inside China.

It is just a matter of whether common health practices are enough to reduce the spread and if most people who contract it recover in full or only suffer mild symptoms. The mortality rate based almost entirely on numbers provided by the Chinese government are of little use in determining how dangerous the virus actually is.

always remember the great movie "The Andromeda Strain"

And we know the incubation period is at least 14 days.

And yes, there are few cases outside of China, but the number is doubling about every 5 days. Just like the cases inside China are doubling about every 5 days.

"A pandemic (from Greek ?ᾶ? pan "all" and ?ῆ??? demos "people&quot is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or even worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic. Further, flu pandemics generally exclude recurrences of seasonal flu. Throughout history, there have been a number of pandemics, such as smallpox and tuberculosis. One of the most devastating pandemics was the Black Death, which killed an estimated 75 - 200 million people in the 14th century. Some recent pandemics include: HIV, Spanish flu, 2009 flu pandemic and H1N1."

Been there before, it's another pandemic.

Isolating sick people when the 'not sick' 14 day period gives the virus plenty of time to spread, won't work.
It will just slow the spread somewhat.

It will spread around the world, and kill many people. The rate of spread is uncertain, as is the death rate and which age groups are the most vulnerable. A rate of 1 to 3 for the spread, ie 1 infected person passes it to 3 others, has been mentioned, but it's far too early to tell.

As usual, poorer and most densely populated countries will have the fastest spread and highest death count.

Things will plateau and then decline, as survivor immunity becomes a thing, and rapid detection and vaccination programs are put into place. (Got to develop an effective vaccine ASAP,mass produce it and get it out there, first.)

This may turn out to be a bad one, or it may fizzle out. Who knows?

Eventually the vaccine for this virus will be added to the concoction of anti-flu shots people get annually, and this one too will be forgotten.

Until the next pandemic.

While the flu itself can be deadly, most assume that the flu will eventually go away. By the time they are correctly diagnosed, there is a high probability that they've already passed this virus on.

Caught the swine flu off a co-worker who assumed she just had the flu bug and decided to soldier on, tough it out.
Didn't go to a doctor, but I did.
Tested positive for H1N1.

I spent 2 weeks forced isolation at home and taking some very expensive anti-viral drugs. (Tamiflu)