Glory days

is better than our doofus idiot.

I've never been so glad I escaped America back when Bush was president. Boris actually hasn't been doing too bad during this shitstorm.

or 1000s of lives, before that disastrous policy works its way through, until the effects of the policy change starts to take effect in 2-3 weeks.

I was mostly thinking he was better than Trump.

These are graphs of how the deaths in countries has developed (since hitting 10, as a starting point). It's the average amount it's multiplied by each day - so, for instance, if it grew 8 times in 3 days, it would be the cube root of 8, ie 2. The first few days are a bit random as fairly small numbers are reported each day, but after that you see trends.



Iran and Italy have been going a long time, with Italy worse, but in each case their rate of increase is dropping. Spain has it really bad - significantly worse than either Iran or Italy at that stage.

Then you can see the UK and the Netherlands; the multiplying rate is dropping a little, but bigger than Italy at this stage. So actions like a lockdown are needed.

The US state in trouble in New York. It hasn't been going on so long, but when I made the graph this morning, it was still going up, and is in the Spain range. After (the state of) Washington's horrible beginning, it's decreased' it's still early for California, but it's not as bad as several countries, so far. Belgium has not been going long, but has grown very fast - they need fast action too.

What's it based on? Are you using the population of each country/state? And are you considering the average age of the population?

Also, Iran's and America's data is questionable to put it politely.

https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19

No, population of each region doesn't matter; day 0 for each line is the first day the deaths pass 10 (so, for instance, Italy started as '1.2', because they went from 10 total fatalities on day 0 to 12 on day 1). No, I don't consider age; it's for an idea of the trend in each region, and whether it's better or worse than exponential (which would be a flat line).

The figures are for deaths, which are more reliable than cases - though lagging, of course. Yes, Iran's figures may not be reliable, but they're in the data, so I thought them worth including anyway.

It explains why deaths in one country can't always be compared to deaths in another...

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

and the Johns Hopkins figures show that, with a lag of 2 or 3 weeks, several other European countries have it just as bad or worse. It may explain why Iran's official figures have stayed below Italy's.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/23/coronavirus-britons-abroad-urged-to-return-to-uk-immediately

You have to wonder how keen some will be to do that now.

act together.

It would depend on the place they're in, of course. If a British man is in Tahiti and has plenty of money, he might want to stay where he is for the duration. If he's in Peru, like some of those mentioned in the article, and is out of funds, he's probably itching to get back home. I would want to be home, most likely. I like it here most of the time.

to. What if they had been well informed and paid attention? It might not have been necessary.

Thanks for the link.

Dipshits who insisted on going to the park and the pub over the weekend have ruined things for everyone else, it has emerged.

Morons, who headed off out in big groups to the beach or a beer garden because the sun was out, have caused the government to shut everything down because they just had to act like arseholes who think they know best.

”Most people have restricted social contact in a sensible way to try and stop grannies dying, but, well, some people are just twats,” said spokesman for the department of health Simon Williams.

“Whilst the vast majority of people kept their distance and only went out when they absolutely had to, a comparatively small number of slobbering imbeciles decided to set up a virus breeding programme in places like Scarborough beach or London’s parks this weekend.



https://newsthump.com/2020/03/23/britain-to-be-locked-down-after-simpletons-couldnt-stay-at-home-when-asked-politely/

Two couples. So much for listening to advice.

though I haven't found that online yet.

Monday, and I'm expecting that to be updated this week to April 20th at least.

There are too many people who will be exempted because the water has to flow, the sewers have to function, the lights need to stay on, and people need to eat.

People who look and feel healthy are spreading this. Unless a super rapid test is developed and people go door to door and test everyone every few days, carriers are not going to be identified.

All that can be done at this point is voluntary personal behavior modification: better hygiene, avoiding crowds, eating sensibly, and for fuck's sake, quit smoking.

Oh, a partial lockdown might slow things for a week or two, but lockdowns only work while they last. After that, people will circulate and so will the virus, and people are simply not going to tolerate lockdown after lockdown. Boris needs to rethink that one.

then that slows the rate that the vulnerable get it, and thus the admissions to hospitals - hopefully to a manageable amount (which means some are kept alive who'd otherwise die). When we in the B Ark (and I do count myself among them) do circulate more, a different group of the vulnerable will be exposed. This will help to keep the peak down.

"All that can be done at this point is voluntary personal behavior modification: better hygiene, avoiding crowds, eating sensibly, and for fuck's sake, quit smoking."

Well, no. The whole point is that this weekend showed that the modification is limited if voluntary. You're saying "we can't try this, because I think people won't like it for long; better to do nothing more than we already have".

The B Ark, for light relief:

ARTHUR:
You really mean you’ve got a hold full of frozen hairdressers?

CAPTAIN:
Oh yes. Millions of them! Hairdressers, tired T.V. producers, insurance salesmen, personnel officers…

NUMBER TWO:
Security guards…

NUMBER ONE:
Management consultants…

CAPTAIN:
Yes, well, you name it and we’ve got it!

NUMBER ONE:
We certainly have yes!

NUMBER TWO:
[Laughs]

CAPTAIN:
We’re going to colonise another planet!

ARTHUR:
What!?

NUMBER TWO:
Oh, yes, yes, yes.

CAPTAIN:
It’s exciting, isn’t, eh?

ARTHUR:
What, with that lot?

CAPTAIN:
Yeah - oh don’t misunderstand me, we’re just one of the ships in the Ark Fleet. You see We’re the B Ark, you see. Uh, sorry, could I just ask you two to run a bit more hot water for me?

[The taps run water]

CAPTAIN:
Ah yes. Do help yourself to more drinks would you?

FORD:
Oh, thanks.

ARTHUR:
What’s a “B Ark”?

CAPTAIN:
What? Oh, well! What happened you see, was our planet was doomed.

ARTHUR:
Doomed?

CAPTAIN:
Oh yes. So what everyone thought was, well let’s pack the whole population in some sort of giant spaceship, you see, and go and settle on another planet!

ARTHUR:
You mean a less-doomed one?

CAPTAIN:
Oh precisely yes. So it was decided to build three ships, three Arks in space, anyway…where’s the soap? Ah! Thank you. Ah! So the idea was that into the first ship, the A Ship, would go all the brilliant leaders…

NUMBER ONE:
The scientists…

CAPTAIN:
Yes, the great artists, you know, all the achievers. And then, into the third ship, the C Ship, would go all the people who did the actual work; who made things and did things you see. And then in the B Ship -

NUMBER ONE:
That’s us.

CAPTAIN:
Yes. Would go everyone else, the middlemen you see. And so we were sent off first.

ARTHUR:
But what was wrong with your planet?

CAPTAIN:
Well it was doomed - as I said. Apparently it was going to crash into the sun. Or was it the moon that was going to crash into us?

NUMBER ONE:
No, no, I thought it was that the planet was more or less bound to be invaded by a gigantic swarm of twelve-foot piranha bees.

NUMBER TWO:
No, no, no. That’s not what I was told! My commanding officer swore blind that the entire planet was in emanate danger of being eaten by an enormous mutant star goat.

FORD:
Oh really, really?

NUMBER TWO:
Yes, but he was just hoping that the ship he was going in would be ready in time.

ARTHUR:
But they made sure that they sent all you lot off first anyway?

CAPTAIN:
Oh yes, everyone said, and very nicely I think -

NUMBER ONE:
Oh yes sir. Absolutely charming.

CAPTAIN:
That it was very important for moral to feel that they would be arriving on a planet where they could be sure of a good haircut and where the phones were clean.

FORD:
Oh yes! Well I- I can see that would be very important.

ARTHUR:
Can you?!

FORD:
[Now trying very hard not to laugh]Sh-shh Arthur. And er, the, the other ships followed on after you did they?

CAPTAIN:
Ah! Well, it’s funny you should mention that…

NUMBER TWO:
Yes, yes isn’t it?

NUMBER ONE:
Yes.

CAPTAIN:
Because curiously enough, we haven’t actually heard a peep out of them since we left ...

...

It was, of course, a descendent of these eccentric poets who invented this curious tale of impending doom which enabled the people of Golgafrincham to rid themselves of an entire useless third of their population. The other two-thirds, of course, stayed at home and lived full, rich, and happy lives until they were all suddenly wiped out by a virulent disease contracted from a dirty telephone.

https://www.clivebanks.co.uk/THHGTTG/THHGTTGradio6.htm

It took me a minute to remember where I knew this from.