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brooklynite

(94,588 posts)
Sun Sep 13, 2020, 11:12 PM Sep 2020

Hurricane Center: Sally forecast shifts east, further away from metro New Orleans

Source: Times-Picayune

The forecast track for Tropical Storm Sally has shifted east Sunday night away from southeast Louisiana, reversing a westward trend earlier in the day and possibly keeping the eventual hurricane’s strongest winds, heaviest rain and highest storm surge away from metro New Orleans.

It is still expected to form into a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico on Monday.

The National Hurricane Center said in its 10 p.m. update Sally was located approximately 140 miles southwest of Panama City, Florida and moving northwest at 8 mph.

It had maximum sustained wind gusts of 60 mph.



Read more: https://www.nola.com/news/hurricane/article_bc64d506-f62a-11ea-9a10-f7364bb7596d.html



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21 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Hurricane Center: Sally forecast shifts east, further away from metro New Orleans (Original Post) brooklynite Sep 2020 OP
nhc map shows 20" of rain forecast for NO right now gristy Sep 2020 #1
Just a quick calculation to place that in perspective.... KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2020 #3
I am in New Orleans and watching local news/weather. With its current track fleur-de-lisa Sep 2020 #18
Yes, it has turned since yesterday. Glad you will be safe! gristy Sep 2020 #19
Now, about the next 5 forming in the Atlantic right now . . . Oy! fleur-de-lisa Sep 2020 #20
Updated map - 4AM, 9/14/20. KY_EnviroGuy Sep 2020 #2
I'm still trying to find a CoC (center of circulation) for that messy complex BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #4
Wobble, wobble, big fat cone, NHC forecast predictions 48 hr out have a possible 80 mi error Baclava Sep 2020 #9
It finally stacked (enough for some 90+mph winds N) and was declared a Hurricane not long ago BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #12
I think its headed for Biloxi, MS, but dont quote me on that Baclava Sep 2020 #13
Will depend on which piece has the stronger pull BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #14
That would be ME! I'm screwn, i put out the submersible pump for the back yard, low spot floods alot Baclava Sep 2020 #15
Yikes! BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #16
It's been 16 years since I lost power from any cane, Ivan, that one was a monster though Baclava Sep 2020 #21
It will be a wet one Sherman A1 Sep 2020 #5
Right side is wetter, they sure want this thing to take a hard right turn, we'll see Baclava Sep 2020 #10
A hurricane isn't a point on a map, this one is a slow moving 150mi wide blob of wind, rain, surge Baclava Sep 2020 #6
Look who just appeared! BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #7
Meanwhile, Bermuda entirely in Hurricane Paulette's eye! Baclava Sep 2020 #8
Yeah I had screencapped when the eye went overhead BumRushDaShow Sep 2020 #11
Guess Trump didn't need his Sharpie this time Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Sep 2020 #17

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,492 posts)
3. Just a quick calculation to place that in perspective....
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 05:47 AM
Sep 2020

New Orleans Metro area is 3750 sq-miles = 103 billion sq.-ft, therefore 20" rainfall is 172 billion cu-ft. = 1.3 trillion gallons.

and....

New Orleans City limits area is 350 sq-miles = 9.7 billion sq.-ft, therefore 20" rainfall is 16 billion cu-ft. = 121 billion gallons.

Source of area/volume info: Wikipedia and 20" rainfall = 1.67 ft. and 1-cu-ft water = 7.5 gallons.

Darn good thing the City has all pumps working!

KY

fleur-de-lisa

(14,624 posts)
18. I am in New Orleans and watching local news/weather. With its current track
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 02:14 PM
Sep 2020

we are expected to get 2"-4" of rain in New Orleans. All 99 of the pumps are in working order and should easily remove the rain. Those inside the levee system should be protected from storm surge. Of course we will get wind over the next two days, nothing can be done about that.

I think Mississippi and Alabama will bear the brunt of this.

fleur-de-lisa

(14,624 posts)
20. Now, about the next 5 forming in the Atlantic right now . . . Oy!
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 02:20 PM
Sep 2020

I want to be put in a medically induced coma until 2020 is over.

KY_EnviroGuy

(14,492 posts)
2. Updated map - 4AM, 9/14/20.
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 05:28 AM
Sep 2020


Certainly may shift again but now looks like mainland landfall near Bay St. Louis or Gulfport, MS.

KY

BumRushDaShow

(129,063 posts)
4. I'm still trying to find a CoC (center of circulation) for that messy complex
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 06:36 AM
Sep 2020


Big blobs of convection along the right front quadrant are theorized to have been a cause for the track change.




TEXT

Levi Cowan
@TropicalTidbits
New data from the evening recon flight into #Sally indicates that the low-level center is getting tugged toward the new convective burst on the NE side, a trend that would likely lead to intensification if it persists overnight.
Image
8:35 PM · Sep 13, 2020


From the last recon (showing the width of what could become a central eye if the convective blobs wrap around the swirl to its west) -

BumRushDaShow

(129,063 posts)
12. It finally stacked (enough for some 90+mph winds N) and was declared a Hurricane not long ago
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 01:15 PM
Sep 2020

Still looks blobby but the CoC seems to have moved eastward towards where all that high-topped convection was. That means the landfall may be more into Alabama around Mobile.

BumRushDaShow

(129,063 posts)
14. Will depend on which piece has the stronger pull
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 01:40 PM
Sep 2020


But whoever ends up in the right front quadrant at landfall is screwn. At least it won't be a Laura in terms of winds but will be a serious soaker with all that convection.

 

Baclava

(12,047 posts)
15. That would be ME! I'm screwn, i put out the submersible pump for the back yard, low spot floods alot
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 01:46 PM
Sep 2020

Of course losing power is always the worst, I'm 5 mi inland

BumRushDaShow

(129,063 posts)
16. Yikes!
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 02:00 PM
Sep 2020

The only good thing here is that it has taken so long to strengthen, has been someone unstable, and has been slow moving churning up the water (meaning the upwelling of cooler water), hopefully it won't go into RI overdrive.

All I can say is good luck!

(we may get a glancing line of rain up here in the Philly area from the remnants but that will depend on whether that big Canadian High to our north continues to suppress the whole mess to our south or not).

BumRushDaShow

(129,063 posts)
11. Yeah I had screencapped when the eye went overhead
Mon Sep 14, 2020, 01:09 PM
Sep 2020

and you could see the entire island through the top!

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