Monmouth poll: Biden up 5 points on Trump in Florida
Source: Politico
Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in the battleground state of Florida, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.
Biden leads Trump 50-45 among 428 registered voters surveyed between September 10-13. Voters over the age of 65 are essentially split between the two, with Trumps 49-47 sitting within the polls 4.7 percentage point margin of error.
Monmouths poll shows Biden leading among Florida Latinos 58-32, roughly in line with Hillary Clintons 27-point margin in 2016, though she lost the state to Trump overall. A recent poll by a Democratic Latino research firm reported Bidens advantage among Hispanics was smaller, 53-37 percent, a finding that alarmed Florida Democrats who have been concerned about the amount of outreach the campaign is doing to attract these voters.
Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among white voters, 56-39 percent. However Trump won the same group by more than 30 points in 2016, and Bidens support in central Florida and areas outside of Democrats traditional strongholds in the southern part of the state is stronger than Clintons was in 2016.
Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/monmouth-biden-up-5-points-on-trump-in-florida-415199
Proud liberal 80
(4,167 posts)This along with the CNN Wisconsin poll
MSM but Biden is losing when it comes to the key one eyed, three legged, Hispanic, Muslim, Christian, suburban housewife demographic
sandensea
(21,627 posts)
Miami Cubans celebrate Fidel Castro's death in 2016.
Many - especially older ones - vote automatically for Republicans in the (misplaced) hope that a GOP president might one day invade Cuba.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)So...
sandensea
(21,627 posts)They've never forgiven him - or Democrats - since.
But that's mostly the older Cubans; the younger ones are much more concerned with issues of economics and discrimination.
And are therefore much more likely to vote for Biden.
lagomorph777
(30,613 posts)That was under both Pubs and Dems, but Cuba fell while a Pub (Eisenhower) was in office. There's plenty of blame to go around.
sandensea
(21,627 posts)For many years, Kennedy was a dirty word among Miami Cubans - and still is among many in the 70+ crowd.
The age group "where the Cuban gentlemen sleep all day," as Steely Dan so memorably put it.
And you're right about Ike: turning against Castro (after Ike had voiced support for the revolution - on account of the fact that he deposed the Batista regime), only forced Castro to run into the Soviets' waiting arms.
A major and unnecessary blunder.
But whatever can be said for or against Castro-era Cuba, the big winner was - ironically - the U.S. itself, as otherwise Cuba would have surely turned into a Honduras-style narco-state.
And just 90 miles from our shores.
Having a President Tony Montana that close to Miami, would have only meant trouble.
Azathoth
(4,608 posts)The Cuban community has become a lot like Ayn Rand. Their ideology was initially developed as direct opposition to an enemy that drove them out of their native country, but over the decades it has become a self-sustaining culture and tradition in its own right. Cuban Republicans *are* Republicans, regardless of who's running Cuba.
sandensea
(21,627 posts)While Cubans are mainly mulatto (i.e. people who look like Obama or Kamala Harris), those who've left Cuba tend to be white.
And like nearly all white Latin Americans, what they resent - and fear - most of all is being "lumped in" with Mexicans, Central Americans, and the like.
For many white Latin Americans (not all, of course) voting Republican has long been seen as act of "belonging" to the U.S. white community.
A community which, by and large, doesn't accept them anyway.
Least of all, Republicans.
Thekaspervote
(32,762 posts)mysteryowl
(7,383 posts)We need big margins in Florida to override all their suppression activity.
sandensea
(21,627 posts)That had gaslighting written all over it - in Spanish: Manipulación
Or suegreando, as some say colloquially ('Mother-in-lawing' someone).
Gamecock Lefty
(700 posts)That MSM comment had me chuckling out loud. What you forgot to mention, tho, was that it lead the evening news!!!
Vote, baby, vote!
Fiendish Thingy
(15,601 posts)honest.abe
(8,678 posts)Its certainly close to not being significant but from a purely statistical standpoint Biden's lead is legit so no need for salt or any other condiments.
Fiendish Thingy
(15,601 posts)honest.abe
(8,678 posts)At least that is my understanding.
Here is a link that explains it better than I could.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/
Fiendish Thingy
(15,601 posts)Polls report levels of support for each candidate, with the MOE applied to each Individual candidates support (graph at link). You must double the MOE to determine if the lead is beyond a statistical tie.
Thats why Im not too excited about Bidens 5 point lead in a poll with a 4.7% MOE, because he would need a lead greater than 9.4% to be outside the margin of error.
Its also why I am excited about national polls showing Biden with a 7-10% lead with 2-3% MOE (538 gives 99% odds of winning EC with pop vote margin greater than 7%), and why I am excited about Rust belt polls giving Biden 8-10% leads with 2-3% MOEs.
riversedge
(70,205 posts)BlueWavePsych
(2,635 posts)Good data point and trend.
honest.abe
(8,678 posts)If Biden wins FL its over.
RicROC
(1,204 posts)I guess the polling is using scientific methods, but seems to me only 428 people in a poll is too few to make any conclusions. Especially a poll taken during a hotly competitive campaign. Polling for preferred brands of laundry soap is one thing....
Yeehah
(4,587 posts)Florida is rife with republican corruption.