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Tue Sep 15, 2020, 02:26 PM

Monmouth poll: Biden up 5 points on Trump in Florida

Source: Politico

Democratic nominee Joe Biden holds a slight edge over President Donald Trump in the battleground state of Florida, according to a Monmouth University poll released Tuesday.

Biden leads Trump 50-45 among 428 registered voters surveyed between September 10-13. Voters over the age of 65 are essentially split between the two, with Trump’s 49-47 sitting within the poll’s 4.7 percentage point margin of error.

Monmouth’s poll shows Biden leading among Florida Latinos 58-32, roughly in line with Hillary Clinton’s 27-point margin in 2016, though she lost the state to Trump overall. A recent poll by a Democratic Latino research firm reported Biden’s advantage among Hispanics was smaller, 53-37 percent, a finding that alarmed Florida Democrats who have been concerned about the amount of outreach the campaign is doing to attract these voters.

Trump holds a substantial lead over Biden among white voters, 56-39 percent. However Trump won the same group by more than 30 points in 2016, and Biden’s support in central Florida and areas outside of Democrats’ traditional strongholds in the southern part of the state is stronger than Clinton’s was in 2016.


Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/15/monmouth-biden-up-5-points-on-trump-in-florida-415199

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Reply Monmouth poll: Biden up 5 points on Trump in Florida (Original post)
brooklynite Tuesday OP
Proud liberal 80 Tuesday #1
sandensea Tuesday #7
lagomorph777 Tuesday #9
sandensea Tuesday #11
lagomorph777 Wednesday #18
sandensea Wednesday #19
Azathoth Wednesday #21
sandensea Wednesday #22
Thekaspervote Tuesday #2
mysteryowl Tuesday #3
sandensea Tuesday #4
Gamecock Lefty Tuesday #5
Fiendish Thingy Tuesday #6
honest.abe Tuesday #12
Fiendish Thingy Tuesday #14
honest.abe Tuesday #15
Fiendish Thingy Tuesday #16
riversedge Tuesday #8
BlueWavePsych Tuesday #10
honest.abe Tuesday #13
RicROC Wednesday #17
Yeehah Wednesday #20

Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 02:28 PM

1. Great news

This along with the CNN Wisconsin poll

MSM “but Biden is losing when it comes to the key one eyed, three legged, Hispanic, Muslim, Christian, suburban housewife demographic”

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Response to Proud liberal 80 (Reply #1)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:33 PM

7. Sure. These guys:



Miami Cubans celebrate Fidel Castro's death in 2016.

Many - especially older ones - vote automatically for Republicans in the (misplaced) hope that a GOP president might one day invade Cuba.

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Response to sandensea (Reply #7)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:58 PM

9. The only President who ever invaded Cuba was a Dem.

So...

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #9)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 04:20 PM

11. Yes - but right-wing Cubans blame Kennedy for "bailing out" on their putsch

They've never forgiven him - or Democrats - since.

But that's mostly the older Cubans; the younger ones are much more concerned with issues of economics and discrimination.

And are therefore much more likely to vote for Biden.

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Response to sandensea (Reply #11)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 09:40 AM

18. I realize, also, I forgot to mention we intervened continuously for about 60 years prior to Castro.

That was under both Pubs and Dems, but Cuba fell while a Pub (Eisenhower) was in office. There's plenty of blame to go around.

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Response to lagomorph777 (Reply #18)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 01:27 PM

19. True - but try telling THEM that.

For many years, Kennedy was a dirty word among Miami Cubans - and still is among many in the 70+ crowd.

The age group "where the Cuban gentlemen sleep all day," as Steely Dan so memorably put it.

And you're right about Ike: turning against Castro (after Ike had voiced support for the revolution - on account of the fact that he deposed the Batista regime), only forced Castro to run into the Soviets' waiting arms.

A major and unnecessary blunder.

But whatever can be said for or against Castro-era Cuba, the big winner was - ironically - the U.S. itself, as otherwise Cuba would have surely turned into a Honduras-style narco-state.

And just 90 miles from our shores.

Having a President Tony Montana that close to Miami, would have only meant trouble.

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Response to sandensea (Reply #7)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:36 PM

21. It's not just anti-Castroism anymore

The Cuban community has become a lot like Ayn Rand. Their ideology was initially developed as direct opposition to an enemy that drove them out of their native country, but over the decades it has become a self-sustaining culture and tradition in its own right. Cuban Republicans *are* Republicans, regardless of who's running Cuba.

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Response to Azathoth (Reply #21)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:48 PM

22. True - and partly out of a need to identify with white people (whom they believe to be mostly GOP)

While Cubans are mainly mulatto (i.e. people who look like Obama or Kamala Harris), those who've left Cuba tend to be white.

And like nearly all white Latin Americans, what they resent - and fear - most of all is being "lumped in" with Mexicans, Central Americans, and the like.

For many white Latin Americans (not all, of course) voting Republican has long been seen as act of "belonging" to the U.S. white community.

A community which, by and large, doesn't accept them anyway.

Least of all, Republicans.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 02:45 PM

2. Well lookie lookie there! made my day..thx for posting

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 02:45 PM

3. Great news!

We need big margins in Florida to override all their suppression activity.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:20 PM

4. So much for the 'Biden's behind with Latinos' tropes

That had gaslighting written all over it - in Spanish: Manipulación

Or suegreando, as some say colloquially ('Mother-in-lawing' someone).

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:21 PM

5. Proud Lib 80 is correct!

That MSM comment had me chuckling out loud. What you forgot to mention, tho, was that it lead the evening news!!!

Vote, baby, vote!

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:31 PM

6. MOE of 4.7%, so take with a huge grain of salt...statistically tied. Nt

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #6)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 05:21 PM

12. Actually statistically speaking Biden is ahead. 5 is greater than 4.7

Its certainly close to not being significant but from a purely statistical standpoint Biden's lead is legit so no need for salt or any other condiments.

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #12)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 05:38 PM

14. Biden loses by 2.7% if you subtract the MOE from him, and add it to Trump Nt

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Response to Fiendish Thingy (Reply #14)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 05:53 PM

15. When the poll is between two contestants the MOE is based on the difference between the two.

At least that is my understanding.

Here is a link that explains it better than I could.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #15)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 08:26 PM

16. From your link:

News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call. It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the difference between the two candidates’ levels of support. The size of this margin is generally about twice that of the margin for an individual candidate. The larger margin of error is due to the fact that if the Republican share is too high by chance, it follows that the Democratic share is likely too low, and vice versa.


Polls report levels of support for each candidate, with the MOE applied to each Individual candidate’s support (graph at link). You must double the MOE to determine if the lead is beyond a statistical tie.

That’s why I’m not too excited about Biden’s 5 point lead in a poll with a 4.7% MOE, because he would need a lead greater than 9.4% to be outside the margin of error.

It’s also why I am excited about national polls showing Biden with a 7-10% lead with 2-3% MOE (538 gives 99% odds of winning EC with pop vote margin greater than 7%), and why I am excited about Rust belt polls giving Biden 8-10% leads with 2-3% MOE’s.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 03:47 PM

8. I'd like to several polls like this--good for today though.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 04:10 PM

10. Add it to the average.

Good data point and trend.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Tue Sep 15, 2020, 05:23 PM

13. Fabulous! And this is before Bloomberg's $100M kicks in.

If Biden wins FL its over.

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 08:39 AM

17. polling responses

I guess the polling is using scientific methods, but seems to me only 428 people in a poll is too few to make any conclusions. Especially a poll taken during a hotly competitive campaign. Polling for preferred brands of laundry soap is one thing....

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Response to brooklynite (Original post)

Wed Sep 16, 2020, 02:20 PM

20. How many points can the corrupt governor and clerks steal?

Florida is rife with republican corruption.

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