The "debate" in this case was the presidential one -- all polling was completed before Biden-Ryan. The pre-(presidential-)numbers were favorable to Obama, but the post-debate ones were dismal. The implication is that, if the vote were held today, Romney would win easily.

If he has two good debates and hammers Romney like Biden did Ryan, Obama will win North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Iowa. He'll get close to matching his margin in 08.

If not, he's toast.

The poll ran 9/29-10/10 (why a two-week tracker for a single state, I can't say), and ended two days before the VP debate. The numbers were reported as follows:

9/29-10/3: O 49% R 40%
(10/3: debate held in evening)
10/4-10:10: R 49% O 43%

When you combine the two polling sub-periods, you get an average of O 46% R 45%, but that's only because of Obama's strong numbers in the first, pre-debate part of the polling period. The clear implication is that the state of the race, currently, would be a lot closer to the post-debate numbers (R+6) than the would the pre-debate numbers (O+9).

I don't believe either candidate has more than a few point lead in NC.

Can't believe you didn't immediately show up in THIS thread. That's just not like you, bro!

which will pour over into the swing back states. He is coming back to pre-debate status.

Obama won NC statewide by only 14,000 votes in 2008.


( @jeremybird breaks it down: http://OFA.BO/EMRVXb )

There are many here in NC who call themselves Democrats but will vote the other way on issues and candidates. This is especially true about President versus Governor races. Obama has strong but not overwhelming numbers here depending on whose poll you read and when. Not so for Walter Dalton.

Rasmussen claims Dalton is more than 14 points behind McCrory. In this case Rasmussen may be right for once. Wonder Bread news media strikes again avoiding anything that looks like a hard questioning of McCrory and other North Carolina Tea Party thugs. McCrory is a knock off of Scott Walker and has plans to eliminate state government in all but name in NC. Far too many voters have little idea who is paying McCrory or what he really plans to do. If they did he couldn't get elected Dog Catcher.

are not like the old school southern "dixiecrat" Democrats, which were basically modern day racist-leaning republicans calling themselves democrats. Newly registered democrats wouldn't have that same confusion.

There are also more than enough of the "old school" democrats in rural areas of the state to dent the value of newly registered voters. Blue Dogs they are and they tend to vote for conservative candidates and issues. They have a distorted view of "traditional values" that is not as severe nor as strongly racist as the Tea Party. They have not been supportive of progressive goals and candidates as one would expect of Democrats when it comes to local and state elections. They are also a bit blind when it comes to progressive critiques of how bad things are or may yet become.

The cities are prominently Dem while the small towns and rural areas are overwhelmingly Repub.
But we're working to change that. one vote at a time.