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Hissyspit

(45,788 posts)
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:02 AM Oct 2012

Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Those Who Have Already Voted: Reuters/Ipsos Poll

Source: Reuters

Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll

WASHINGTON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:15am EDT

By Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.

Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.

The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: http://bit.ly/RmeEen)

With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: http://bit.ly/SWm5YR).

Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8991FR20121014

46 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Those Who Have Already Voted: Reuters/Ipsos Poll (Original Post) Hissyspit Oct 2012 OP
Pleasant news. aquart Oct 2012 #1
Across-the-ponders have spoken lebkuchen Oct 2012 #2
I am hopeful it will be over early on election night and the R's won't know what hit them. mnhtnbb Oct 2012 #3
Just wait until Mittens gets his vote fixer going fasttense Oct 2012 #4
One way to shut down the fix/theft garthranzz Oct 2012 #5
Arithmetic, GOPpers don't know no stinking arithmetic Iliyah Oct 2012 #18
offset with cooked numbers donquijoterocket Oct 2012 #28
If Obama leads by 20% demwing Oct 2012 #45
If someone is caught stealing votes. KevTucky Oct 2012 #6
You might want to use a sarcasm smiley when you post this type of stuff liberal N proud Oct 2012 #9
Why would it NOT be treason? mikki35 Oct 2012 #16
I don't see any accusation from this post. obxhead Oct 2012 #25
No sarcasm needed. Zoeisright Oct 2012 #32
That is good to hear on a Sunday morning just ahead of the Sunday republican love fest shows liberal N proud Oct 2012 #7
I am thinking about camping out the night before early voting starts! Want to be first in line Change Happens Oct 2012 #8
I won't be in Florida for Early Voting HockeyMom Oct 2012 #22
FL is THE most important state (again). Here's hoping the Dem poll watchers are out in force so R's wordpix Oct 2012 #24
If Obama wins Florida and Ohio, Thurston Howell is toast. sarcasmo Oct 2012 #27
Here in California we just got our absentee ballots lunatica Oct 2012 #10
I mailed mine in, too! calimary Oct 2012 #40
I voted on Oct. 4 in Virginia lanlady Oct 2012 #11
Where can I go vote early in VA? Setsuna1972 Oct 2012 #13
They did a mass mail out of voter registration cards fasttense Oct 2012 #14
The VA voter card changed this year obxhead Oct 2012 #26
So much for the enthusiasm gap.. Kahuna Oct 2012 #12
Good Bye early voting..... groundloop Oct 2012 #15
Ohio early vote mikki35 Oct 2012 #17
Welcome to DU, mikki35! calimary Oct 2012 #41
The GOP party also think they have 100% of the Evangelists votes which is NOT TRUE Iliyah Oct 2012 #19
Interesting... HereSince1628 Oct 2012 #20
Maybe Romney supporters are all talk Alekei_Firebird Oct 2012 #29
Interesting observation. Welcome to DU! calimary Oct 2012 #42
I suspect a lot of people are concerned that they may play games on election day, such as reducing still_one Oct 2012 #21
My friends - let us not kid ourselves in our enthusiasm- GOP plans roadblocks, let us beat it kansasobama Oct 2012 #23
Send the Big Dawg! ffr Oct 2012 #31
These numbers are correct. Pollsters who forecast say... ffr Oct 2012 #30
And Romney leads among voters who already voted twice. zonkers Oct 2012 #33
Good one. KevTucky Oct 2012 #38
Early ballots ... ip5683 Oct 2012 #34
Because it's a poll. People were asked who they voted for. truthisfreedom Oct 2012 #35
Thank you, Hissyspit for the good news. David Zephyr Oct 2012 #36
I'm voting for Obama right now!!! lexw Oct 2012 #37
K & R AzDar Oct 2012 #39
Actually, Obama is leading by over 95% among voters Coyotl Oct 2012 #43
This is VERY important Captain_truthteller Oct 2012 #44
Paul and I will be voting this weekend... WillParkinson Oct 2012 #46

garthranzz

(1,330 posts)
5. One way to shut down the fix/theft
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 07:36 AM
Oct 2012

is to make the vote too overwhelming for a steal to be credible. That's what happened in 08.

There will be more reporting of early voting. The numbers will only go up. At some point, the lead in early voting becomes too great to offset with cooked numbers in the swing states.

It's one of those math-word problems:

If Obama leads by 20 points with 7 percent reporting, and that lead holds, at what point have the scales tipped? When would Romney have to get 100% of the remaining votes to win? 75%?

Any math people want to work the numbers?

donquijoterocket

(488 posts)
28. offset with cooked numbers
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:58 AM
Oct 2012

and rigged voting machines. But you know the first thing will be that these early voting reports are cooked or rigged, a figment of the liberal media. If you can't rig it at one end try to make it illegitimate for some reason, at the other. That was the most of the opposition to president Obama starting,but not ending,with the birthers. He was duly elected president but he was still somehow illegitimate. They'll never admit that the prime motivating factor in it all was racism.

 

demwing

(16,916 posts)
45. If Obama leads by 20%
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:04 PM
Oct 2012

and the only candidates are him or Romney, then this means Obama has 60% of the vote to Romney's 40%.

If that lead holds, once 84% of the votes are in, Obama will have won (.84 * .6 = .504, or just over 50%).

liberal N proud

(60,335 posts)
9. You might want to use a sarcasm smiley when you post this type of stuff
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:02 AM
Oct 2012

Unless you are seriously making accusations then other things would need to be considered.

mikki35

(111 posts)
16. Why would it NOT be treason?
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:37 AM
Oct 2012

If successful, that is known as a coup d'etat, is it not? I'm trying to figure out what part of election theft is not treasonous, and utterly failing. Nope, no sarcasm. None at all.

 

obxhead

(8,434 posts)
25. I don't see any accusation from this post.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:05 AM
Oct 2012

"IF" someone is "CAUGHT"

I completely agree. It should be considered treason if someone is caught tampering with the election.

Change Happens

(1,559 posts)
8. I am thinking about camping out the night before early voting starts! Want to be first in line
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:00 AM
Oct 2012

at 7:00 AM on that day!

Live in Florida...

 

HockeyMom

(14,337 posts)
22. I won't be in Florida for Early Voting
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:58 AM
Oct 2012

although I will be back 2 days before Election Day. I have decided NOT to mail in my Absentee Ballot, but go to the polls instead. I am VERY paranoid about voting in Florida, especially living in the very red area (Naples) of Rick Scott and Connie Mack.

wordpix

(18,652 posts)
24. FL is THE most important state (again). Here's hoping the Dem poll watchers are out in force so R's
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:01 AM
Oct 2012

won't steal another election

lunatica

(53,410 posts)
10. Here in California we just got our absentee ballots
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:05 AM
Oct 2012

which means there is now a flood of votes being sent back to add to the tally. I mailed mine yesterday.

calimary

(81,298 posts)
40. I mailed mine in, too!
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:41 PM
Oct 2012

My son and I, both. Husband's next. Nice to feel done with it, personally. But I wish that were the case, nationwide. As fervent as we all are about this election, I'd bet most if not all of us REALLY wish it were OVER already.

lanlady

(7,134 posts)
11. I voted on Oct. 4 in Virginia
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:07 AM
Oct 2012

and I have to say, there were quite a few voters already at the polling station at our local DMV. Va. mass-mailed registered voter cards this year (I don't recall that happening before) so that's what I used for my ID.

Right-wing crackpot Virgil Goode is on the ballot for president -- I think he'll peel off lots of votes from Romney, especially in the brain-dead parts of the state.

We turned Virginia from red to blue in 2008, let's keep it that way!!

Setsuna1972

(332 posts)
13. Where can I go vote early in VA?
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:27 AM
Oct 2012

Can I go to the local election office or DMV or how to cast my absentee ballot???

 

fasttense

(17,301 posts)
14. They did a mass mail out of voter registration cards
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:29 AM
Oct 2012

here to in TN. But it clearly says on the bottom that the card can NOT be used for Identification at the voting booth.

So, I wonder what is the use of mailing out or giving out a registration card at all?

 

obxhead

(8,434 posts)
26. The VA voter card changed this year
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 10:07 AM
Oct 2012

that's why you received a new one in the mail. Every registered voter was supposed to get a new card.

mikki35

(111 posts)
17. Ohio early vote
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:40 AM
Oct 2012

I voted Friday in rural southern Ohio - NEVER see anyone there usually. There were people voting when I arrived, more arriving while I was voting, and had to stand in line to hand my card back!!! I was shocked!

calimary

(81,298 posts)
41. Welcome to DU, mikki35!
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:43 PM
Oct 2012

We don't have this thing locked in yet. Glad you're here. We need you.




Now get to work.

Iliyah

(25,111 posts)
19. The GOP party also think they have 100% of the Evangelists votes which is NOT TRUE
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:19 AM
Oct 2012

I know maybe 60% may vote for GOPpers but ya'still have the remaining 40%. From that 40% maybe half will not vote and the other half will vote for the other guy.

GOPpers is not the party of Christianity. They don't practice what they spew, and they are hateful as hell. Christians DO NOT hate like that.

HereSince1628

(36,063 posts)
20. Interesting...
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:36 AM
Oct 2012

Setting aside the notion that Obama actually has a 30 point lead in Ohio among people who will vote, which seems unlikely, what causes pro-Obama voters to vote early, compared to pro-Romney voters?

Is it just that pro-Obama voters are more likely to take advantage of the convenience of voting on a day of their choosing because they are more open to doing something less traditional?

Or is it directed at circumventing some perceived problem(s) these voters associate with showing up at Ohio polling places on election day?

Alekei_Firebird

(320 posts)
29. Maybe Romney supporters are all talk
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:06 AM
Oct 2012

I can't honestly believe that more than maybe a fanatical 20% of Americans are genuinely excited about Romney. His flip-flops and sneering comments on ordinary Americans are too well-documented to be ignored.

One theory I have is that a lot of older white voters just have a visceral reaction against Obama, and they express that by responding in the polls that they'll vote for Romney (or Perry or Gingrich or Jack Bauer). It really doesn't matter who you plug in, so long as he is not Obama.

But actually voting for someone is a completely different matter. Maybe on election day, they'll finally show up. But I would think that if they were genuinely worried that the country was headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to simply having a prejudiced and culture-based hatred for the president, they would hurry to the polls at the earliest opportunity. I mean, surely these people know how critical Ohio is to Romney?

It's fun to vent and talk big about how you're going to boot that Hawaiian-Kenyan-Indonesian Mulatto with the Race Traitor of a Mother™ out of the WH when the pollsters call you up, but is that going to translate to actually heading out to vote? Maybe not.

calimary

(81,298 posts)
42. Interesting observation. Welcome to DU!
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:58 PM
Oct 2012

Yeah, it's fun to vent. But deep-down, it does really start to make one wonder about our fellow man (and woman as well, of course). That they could be THAT poorly informed - oh yeah, and you forgot "Communist" in that litany there. That they could be THAT unChristian. That they could be THAT racist - that racism of that level of virulence still exists in this country in the 21st Century. It's such a horrid thought that one automatically wants to resist it and assert that it's not true. That it can't be true. I find myself sometimes mumbling - "is THIS who we are? Is THIS what we've become?"

Maybe with a few it might be peer pressure at work. If you sit in church every Sunday and hear the preacher pound on from the pulpit about the evils of liberalism and you-better-vote-for-wrongney-if-you-value-your-immortal-soul, and you're surrounded by it - would you feel combative and eager to go on defense (or offense) a lot of the time? Or would you just kinda sit or stand by quietly and just not say anything. Would you start feeling depressed, and worn down? Would your conscience start bothering you? Would it start making you uncomfortable to be surrounded by shit-spew like that all the time? If you lived in a blood-red state, or as CONservative a neighborhood or community or part of town, if your boss ran limbaugh on the office radio system all the time, or your office TV was set and glued to Pox Noise?

Might be something that would, indeed, eventually drive a few to start examining their consciences. Or at least to a reality check. If you finally decide to suspend your Pox-Noise-indoctrinated disbelief long enough to accept the astoundingly large number of facts supporting the other side. Certainly that could happen. I doubt it will happen with hoards of 'em. After all - NOBODY likes having to admit they were wrong, much less having to concede that THEIR "bad guy" was correct all along, or genuinely helped them or someone they cared about. When it's supposed to be YOUR side that does all the good things because it talked about extreme Christianity all the time, but it winds up that the more generous and compassionate and truly Christ-like behavior is what you find on your opponents' side. That's hard to accept, for some. Mighty hard. Look how hard it is to get a sincere apology out of public figures of any kind these days. They have to have societal or financial or public relations "guns" to their heads sometimes.

But to try to step beyond the partisanship when you're practically drowning in it - it takes a true adult to do that. And most people I think have decided that acting infantile is a much more comfortable fit.

still_one

(92,208 posts)
21. I suspect a lot of people are concerned that they may play games on election day, such as reducing
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:54 AM
Oct 2012

the number of voting machines in Democratic districts, or challenging people who want to vote

Excellent news

kansasobama

(609 posts)
23. My friends - let us not kid ourselves in our enthusiasm- GOP plans roadblocks, let us beat it
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:59 AM
Oct 2012

Hello:

7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail.

Why 7? All registered Democrats have to vote early, not 7. Needs to hit 60%. Mark my words! Koch Brothers and Tea Party nuts will hold the election hostage on Election Day to fabricated legal issues. Their nuts will try to "slow down the lines" in Dem districts. There will be challenges to the so-Called IDs merely to "slow" down. All this is really pointing to a Romney win. I am a staunch Dem but I know the reality. It is all about all registered Dems voting and coming out of the "non-likely" voters. Misguided younger college kids are voting Republican in Iowa because they "like" Ryan. They think Romney looks "strong." Women voters like when Romney says he will work along party lines. Our stronger Dem Senators need to come in a visible way to say that Romney proposals are out of mainstream and he is dreaming if he is thinking about working across party lines. I have not seen any Dem Senator and come out and say this strongly. Not one, no visibility.

Folks, 100% of registered Dem voters have to "vote early." Friends, let us do all we can. The GOP ground game is vastly superior, believe me. But, "yes we can" only if 100% registered Dems vote "early." Please, please, please, I hope Dem strategists are reading these emails. And, please no Axelrod as spokesperson. No more! Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him. The Big Dog needs to be in all states. Pres. Obama, please forget egos. To govern, you have to win. Winning is everything and we want it legally and cleanly.

ffr

(22,670 posts)
31. Send the Big Dawg!
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:14 AM
Oct 2012

Couldn't agree with you more on your point:

"Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him."

ffr

(22,670 posts)
30. These numbers are correct. Pollsters who forecast say...
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 11:10 AM
Oct 2012
In presidential election years, watch for:

1) who is winning the voter registration drives in which states <here>
2) how heavy the turnout is (as the thread headline states)

Democrats are winning both in the key swing states.

Keep enthusiasm up and get people to vote!
 
44. This is VERY important
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 05:10 PM
Oct 2012

EArly voting is a cushion against the possibility of Obama losing ground in the future. Obama's lead in early voting is great news.

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