Obama Grabs Wide Lead Among Those Who Have Already Voted: Reuters/Ipsos Poll
Source: Reuters
Obama grabs wide lead among those who have already voted: Reuters/Ipsos poll
WASHINGTON | Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:15am EDT
By Andy Sullivan
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney are neck and neck in opinion polls, but there is one area in which the incumbent appears to have a big advantage: those who have already cast their ballots.
Obama leads Romney by 59 percent to 31 percent among early voters, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling data compiled in recent weeks.
The sample size of early voters is relatively small, but the Democrat's margin is still well above the poll's credibility interval - a measurement of polls' accuracy - of 10 percentage points. (full graphic: http://bit.ly/RmeEen)
With the November 6 election just more than three weeks away, 7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail (full graphic: http://bit.ly/SWm5YR).
Read more: http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSBRE8991FR20121014
aquart
(69,014 posts)Those ballots are stored where?
lebkuchen
(10,716 posts)and that includes the military.
mnhtnbb
(31,391 posts)fasttense
(17,301 posts)that will turn around in a minute.
garthranzz
(1,330 posts)is to make the vote too overwhelming for a steal to be credible. That's what happened in 08.
There will be more reporting of early voting. The numbers will only go up. At some point, the lead in early voting becomes too great to offset with cooked numbers in the swing states.
It's one of those math-word problems:
If Obama leads by 20 points with 7 percent reporting, and that lead holds, at what point have the scales tipped? When would Romney have to get 100% of the remaining votes to win? 75%?
Any math people want to work the numbers?
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)Unfortunately that is true
donquijoterocket
(488 posts)and rigged voting machines. But you know the first thing will be that these early voting reports are cooked or rigged, a figment of the liberal media. If you can't rig it at one end try to make it illegitimate for some reason, at the other. That was the most of the opposition to president Obama starting,but not ending,with the birthers. He was duly elected president but he was still somehow illegitimate. They'll never admit that the prime motivating factor in it all was racism.
demwing
(16,916 posts)and the only candidates are him or Romney, then this means Obama has 60% of the vote to Romney's 40%.
If that lead holds, once 84% of the votes are in, Obama will have won (.84 * .6 = .504, or just over 50%).
KevTucky
(90 posts)They should be tried for treason.
liberal N proud
(60,335 posts)Unless you are seriously making accusations then other things would need to be considered.
mikki35
(111 posts)If successful, that is known as a coup d'etat, is it not? I'm trying to figure out what part of election theft is not treasonous, and utterly failing. Nope, no sarcasm. None at all.
obxhead
(8,434 posts)"IF" someone is "CAUGHT"
I completely agree. It should be considered treason if someone is caught tampering with the election.
Zoeisright
(8,339 posts)You might want to study democracy a little bit.
liberal N proud
(60,335 posts)Change Happens
(1,559 posts)at 7:00 AM on that day!
Live in Florida...
HockeyMom
(14,337 posts)although I will be back 2 days before Election Day. I have decided NOT to mail in my Absentee Ballot, but go to the polls instead. I am VERY paranoid about voting in Florida, especially living in the very red area (Naples) of Rick Scott and Connie Mack.
wordpix
(18,652 posts)won't steal another election
sarcasmo
(23,968 posts)lunatica
(53,410 posts)which means there is now a flood of votes being sent back to add to the tally. I mailed mine yesterday.
calimary
(81,298 posts)My son and I, both. Husband's next. Nice to feel done with it, personally. But I wish that were the case, nationwide. As fervent as we all are about this election, I'd bet most if not all of us REALLY wish it were OVER already.
lanlady
(7,134 posts)and I have to say, there were quite a few voters already at the polling station at our local DMV. Va. mass-mailed registered voter cards this year (I don't recall that happening before) so that's what I used for my ID.
Right-wing crackpot Virgil Goode is on the ballot for president -- I think he'll peel off lots of votes from Romney, especially in the brain-dead parts of the state.
We turned Virginia from red to blue in 2008, let's keep it that way!!
Setsuna1972
(332 posts)Can I go to the local election office or DMV or how to cast my absentee ballot???
fasttense
(17,301 posts)here to in TN. But it clearly says on the bottom that the card can NOT be used for Identification at the voting booth.
So, I wonder what is the use of mailing out or giving out a registration card at all?
obxhead
(8,434 posts)that's why you received a new one in the mail. Every registered voter was supposed to get a new card.
Kahuna
(27,311 posts)groundloop
(11,519 posts)at least in states with repub legislatures.
mikki35
(111 posts)I voted Friday in rural southern Ohio - NEVER see anyone there usually. There were people voting when I arrived, more arriving while I was voting, and had to stand in line to hand my card back!!! I was shocked!
calimary
(81,298 posts)We don't have this thing locked in yet. Glad you're here. We need you.
Now get to work.
Iliyah
(25,111 posts)I know maybe 60% may vote for GOPpers but ya'still have the remaining 40%. From that 40% maybe half will not vote and the other half will vote for the other guy.
GOPpers is not the party of Christianity. They don't practice what they spew, and they are hateful as hell. Christians DO NOT hate like that.
HereSince1628
(36,063 posts)Setting aside the notion that Obama actually has a 30 point lead in Ohio among people who will vote, which seems unlikely, what causes pro-Obama voters to vote early, compared to pro-Romney voters?
Is it just that pro-Obama voters are more likely to take advantage of the convenience of voting on a day of their choosing because they are more open to doing something less traditional?
Or is it directed at circumventing some perceived problem(s) these voters associate with showing up at Ohio polling places on election day?
Alekei_Firebird
(320 posts)I can't honestly believe that more than maybe a fanatical 20% of Americans are genuinely excited about Romney. His flip-flops and sneering comments on ordinary Americans are too well-documented to be ignored.
One theory I have is that a lot of older white voters just have a visceral reaction against Obama, and they express that by responding in the polls that they'll vote for Romney (or Perry or Gingrich or Jack Bauer). It really doesn't matter who you plug in, so long as he is not Obama.
But actually voting for someone is a completely different matter. Maybe on election day, they'll finally show up. But I would think that if they were genuinely worried that the country was headed in the wrong direction, as opposed to simply having a prejudiced and culture-based hatred for the president, they would hurry to the polls at the earliest opportunity. I mean, surely these people know how critical Ohio is to Romney?
It's fun to vent and talk big about how you're going to boot that Hawaiian-Kenyan-Indonesian Mulatto with the Race Traitor of a Mother out of the WH when the pollsters call you up, but is that going to translate to actually heading out to vote? Maybe not.
calimary
(81,298 posts)Yeah, it's fun to vent. But deep-down, it does really start to make one wonder about our fellow man (and woman as well, of course). That they could be THAT poorly informed - oh yeah, and you forgot "Communist" in that litany there. That they could be THAT unChristian. That they could be THAT racist - that racism of that level of virulence still exists in this country in the 21st Century. It's such a horrid thought that one automatically wants to resist it and assert that it's not true. That it can't be true. I find myself sometimes mumbling - "is THIS who we are? Is THIS what we've become?"
Maybe with a few it might be peer pressure at work. If you sit in church every Sunday and hear the preacher pound on from the pulpit about the evils of liberalism and you-better-vote-for-wrongney-if-you-value-your-immortal-soul, and you're surrounded by it - would you feel combative and eager to go on defense (or offense) a lot of the time? Or would you just kinda sit or stand by quietly and just not say anything. Would you start feeling depressed, and worn down? Would your conscience start bothering you? Would it start making you uncomfortable to be surrounded by shit-spew like that all the time? If you lived in a blood-red state, or as CONservative a neighborhood or community or part of town, if your boss ran limbaugh on the office radio system all the time, or your office TV was set and glued to Pox Noise?
Might be something that would, indeed, eventually drive a few to start examining their consciences. Or at least to a reality check. If you finally decide to suspend your Pox-Noise-indoctrinated disbelief long enough to accept the astoundingly large number of facts supporting the other side. Certainly that could happen. I doubt it will happen with hoards of 'em. After all - NOBODY likes having to admit they were wrong, much less having to concede that THEIR "bad guy" was correct all along, or genuinely helped them or someone they cared about. When it's supposed to be YOUR side that does all the good things because it talked about extreme Christianity all the time, but it winds up that the more generous and compassionate and truly Christ-like behavior is what you find on your opponents' side. That's hard to accept, for some. Mighty hard. Look how hard it is to get a sincere apology out of public figures of any kind these days. They have to have societal or financial or public relations "guns" to their heads sometimes.
But to try to step beyond the partisanship when you're practically drowning in it - it takes a true adult to do that. And most people I think have decided that acting infantile is a much more comfortable fit.
still_one
(92,208 posts)the number of voting machines in Democratic districts, or challenging people who want to vote
Excellent news
kansasobama
(609 posts)Hello:
7 percent of those surveyed said they had already voted either in person or by mail.
Why 7? All registered Democrats have to vote early, not 7. Needs to hit 60%. Mark my words! Koch Brothers and Tea Party nuts will hold the election hostage on Election Day to fabricated legal issues. Their nuts will try to "slow down the lines" in Dem districts. There will be challenges to the so-Called IDs merely to "slow" down. All this is really pointing to a Romney win. I am a staunch Dem but I know the reality. It is all about all registered Dems voting and coming out of the "non-likely" voters. Misguided younger college kids are voting Republican in Iowa because they "like" Ryan. They think Romney looks "strong." Women voters like when Romney says he will work along party lines. Our stronger Dem Senators need to come in a visible way to say that Romney proposals are out of mainstream and he is dreaming if he is thinking about working across party lines. I have not seen any Dem Senator and come out and say this strongly. Not one, no visibility.
Folks, 100% of registered Dem voters have to "vote early." Friends, let us do all we can. The GOP ground game is vastly superior, believe me. But, "yes we can" only if 100% registered Dems vote "early." Please, please, please, I hope Dem strategists are reading these emails. And, please no Axelrod as spokesperson. No more! Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him. The Big Dog needs to be in all states. Pres. Obama, please forget egos. To govern, you have to win. Winning is everything and we want it legally and cleanly.
ffr
(22,670 posts)Couldn't agree with you more on your point:
"Send the big dog, Pres. Clinton. Al Gore made a fatal error by not using him."
ffr
(22,670 posts)1) who is winning the voter registration drives in which states <here>
2) how heavy the turnout is (as the thread headline states)
Democrats are winning both in the key swing states.
Keep enthusiasm up and get people to vote!
zonkers
(5,865 posts)Also, he is losing in his home state of MassaMichiHampshire.
ip5683
(11 posts)... are sealed until election day. How can anyone know we are ahead at this point?
truthisfreedom
(23,148 posts)David Zephyr
(22,785 posts)lexw
(804 posts)AzDar
(14,023 posts)Coyotl
(15,262 posts)the republicans caged
Captain_truthteller
(14 posts)EArly voting is a cushion against the possibility of Obama losing ground in the future. Obama's lead in early voting is great news.
WillParkinson
(16,862 posts)So you can add another vote.