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alp227

(32,034 posts)
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:44 AM Nov 2012

Obama has slight lead in electoral votes; Congress expected to remain status quo

Source: washington post

On the final weekend of a fiercely fought presidential campaign, President Obama holds a narrow advantage over Mitt Romney in the crucial contest for the electoral votes needed to win the White House, even as national polls continue to show the candidates in a virtual tie for the popular vote.

In Congress, despite record levels of disapproval with the institution, voters seem likely to opt for the status quo — Democrats in charge of the Senate and Republicans in the House.

Democrats are expected to gain seats in the House but not the 25 needed to recapture the majority lost in the Republican sweep of 2010. In the Senate, Democrats hold a 53-47 majority, including two independents who caucus with them. Although 10 or more races were considered too close to call through much of the fall, Democrats are now in a position to maintain their majority, although perhaps barely.

This election assessment, along with reports on all the states, is based on interviews by a team of Washington Post reporters with strategists in the two parties and both presidential campaigns, as well as state and local officials and independent analysts. The assessment includes an analysis of polls on individual states and races that have poured forth over the final weeks before the election.

...

The latest Washington Post-ABC News national poll shows a dead heat this weekend, with Obama and Romney both at 48 percent among likely voters. The survey has barely fluctuated.

Read more: http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/obama-has-slight-lead-in-electoral-votes-congress-expected-to-remain-status-quo/2012/11/03/6b7f2a3e-25cb-11e2-9313-3c7f59038d93_singlePage.html

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Roselma

(540 posts)
1. I wonder why they say that? I wonder why they don't update
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:55 AM
Nov 2012

their electoral map with the latest polls (like HuffPo Pollster).

StarryNite

(9,446 posts)
2. I don't get it....
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:38 AM
Nov 2012

How can it be such a close race? It does not make sense to me at all how it can be so close.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
15. It is a close race. It is a close race we are going to win by a not-a-landslide margin. It won't
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:14 PM
Nov 2012

be as close as Gore-Bush or Kerry-Bush, but it will be a hell of a lot closer than Obama-McCain.

We need to GOTV in light of the closeness of the race.

NO REST YET -- 2 MORE DAYS!

global1

(25,253 posts)
3. I'm Concerned - DU Seems To Be Celebrating An Obama Victory - Yet .....
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:43 AM
Nov 2012

I was just listening to CBS Radio and now reading this about the Wash Post and I'm hearing it is too close to call and that Rmoney could still pull this out. Are we too overconfident here? Or is the MSM still wanting a photo finish horse race? What is it that is causing DU'ers to open the champagne?

TomCADem

(17,390 posts)
7. Chris Cillizza Is Not A Pollster! He Is A Pro-Horserace Pundit Who Pulling This Out of His A*&...
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:16 AM
Nov 2012

Here is KoS discussion of Chris Cillizza's methodology:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/02/1154174/-Sam-Wang-Pwns-Chris-Cillizza

Some of you may have heard that Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post decided to 'move' OHIO from OBAMA to 'TOSSUP on his Electoral Map yesterday - and he offered possibly the lamest excuse for doing so in pundit history:

"...the absolute necessity for Romney to win the state if he wants to be president - leads us to move it back to the 'tossup' category."

When you can maneuver your jaw again, join me over the fold.

As I said yesterday, this amounts to a "I really, really want the race to be closer, so I am going to reassign states at random until OBAMA is below 270 again - despite reality.


I guess we can go ahead dismiss climate change as a factor behind Hurrican Sandy, because I really don't want it to be due to climate change, so there.
 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
14. Well, the danger is that "the fix is in",
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:07 PM
Nov 2012

it has been decided, by hook or by crook, by those with the power to swing it who will win. War will then be initiated in the Middle East and perhaps beyond, with the same old neocon cabal in command and ready to profit from the resulting wartime economy and further suspensions of due political and judicial processes...

 

RobertEarl

(13,685 posts)
16. That was written in 2000, right?
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:43 PM
Nov 2012

Certainly the fix was in and Bush got fixed into office and the wars started and we lost many rights.

And now there are people here, today, with their heads up their asses, who can't see the fix is still as powerful and active as ever.

I weep for my country.

 

Ghost Dog

(16,881 posts)
17. Nope. Off the top of my head this very afternoon,
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:06 PM
Nov 2012

after scanning the latest news...

But you're right, and I refer you to this rather worrying thread from yesterday:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/101646750

gtar100

(4,192 posts)
4. who are these people that vote for Obama and then
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:44 AM
Nov 2012

vote for a repug representative. Talk about dysfunctional!

KansDem

(28,498 posts)
6. Watch for the media to use the old "divided government" meme
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:08 AM
Nov 2012

The news readers will tell us that we purposely chose the President from one party and the Representative from the other party so they can "keep watch" on each other. This, they'll tell us, will assure that "compromise" will be necessary and no one party will dominate.

Never mind that the ****ing Repubs got together just hours after Obama's inauguration on January 20, 2008, and conspired to block all his programs and, in the case of McConnell, make him fail...



"Compromise," my ass...

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
5. This is what I expected. Republican gerrymandering is the worst in history.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:03 AM
Nov 2012

Some districts are 400 feet wide. 400 feet. A street. They threaded the fucking needle.

Major Hogwash

(17,656 posts)
8. That guy hasn't been right for over 6 years.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:26 AM
Nov 2012

He didn't see the Democrats taking back control of the House in 2006.
Or that the Democrats would take back control of the Senate in 2006, either.
He didn't 'predict' that Obama would be the President in 2008.
He didn't "predict' that the Republicans would take control of the House in 2010.

Saying that "congress expected to remain status quo" is the most ignorant comment anyone can make this election.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
10. Well I hope you're right.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 03:56 AM
Nov 2012

I just can't get over how bad the Republicans have gerrymandered districts to shit and back.

kansasobama

(609 posts)
12. We could be overconfident but we could still make it ours
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:53 AM
Nov 2012

Generally, we are ok. Yes, we are overconfident about Colorado and about Iowa where our friends have not returned absentee ballots that our GOTV worked so hard at. Ohio is ok but there are some betrayers in that state. It looks like we should still carry Ohio and Iowa and Wisconsin. NH is somewhat weird and don't understand them. There is no business for them to support Rapeblicans. Hope our campaign has done enough to highlight that.

We have under performed in FL just a little but it has to do with their Tea Party governor. (I am not a troll, just being realistic) Can we make up on Nov 6th? We have to. Actually we can. Will FL do it is the question.

VA is really a toss up. So is NH.

What we should not be complacent about is WI, OH, and FL have governors who are idiots, corrupt, nasty and what not. Our campaign knows that but we should not let them steal it.

I still see some Dem voters a little slow. Not in DU. I hope they all go out on Nov 6th. We have to go out to vote on Nov 6th. If all Dem voters go out and vote there will be GOP disaster. If we do not, it is too close.

National polls are way too close. Obama should be about 3 points ahead. Wonder they are counting low turnout in Northeast making us nervous.

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