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kpete

(71,996 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:12 PM Nov 2012

(PEW)Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days: Obama 50% - Romney 47%

Source: Pew

Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days
Obama 50% - Romney 47%

Barack Obama has edged ahead of Mitt Romney in the final days of the presidential campaign. In the Pew Research Center’s election weekend survey, Obama holds a 48% to 45% lead over Romney among likely voters.

The survey finds that Obama maintains his modest lead when the probable decisions of undecided voters are taken into account. Our final estimate of the national popular vote is Obama 50% and Romney 47%, when the undecided vote is allocated between the two candidates based on several indicators and opinions.

A week ago the race was deadlocked, with each candidate drawing support from 47% of the likely electorate. Interviewing for the final pre-election survey was conducted Oct. 31- Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. The previous survey was conducted Oct. 24-28, before Hurricane Sandy made landfall along the East Coast.

Read more: http://www.people-press.org/2012/11/04/obama-gains-edge-in-campaigns-final-days/

17 replies

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Highlight:

(PEW)Obama Gains Edge in Campaign's Final Days: Obama 50% - Romney 47% (Original Post) kpete Nov 2012 OP

BLOWOUT! Okay, not really ... but damn! Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #1

Pew is matching PPP. liberalmuse Nov 2012 #2

Ohio daybranch Nov 2012 #17

Oct. 31- Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. That isn't very many. Coyotl Nov 2012 #3

For a national poll, it certainly is... Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #5

You are kidding, right? Shivering Jemmy Nov 2012 #7

No, some are in the 4,000 range, and some follow the same voters over time Coyotl Nov 2012 #9

Rasmussen's tracker has 1500... Gallup's less than 3000.... Pew's *IS* large scheming daemons Nov 2012 #11

I guess the PEW doesn't stink. Kablooie Nov 2012 #4

I can NOT wait until this poll is posted on Freeperville. limousineliberal Nov 2012 #6

Welcome to DU, limousineliberal! calimary Nov 2012 #8

Mr. 47% BeyondGeography Nov 2012 #10

ironic, isn't it? But I'm hoping for a bigger win wordpix Nov 2012 #14

Kick (nt) muriel_volestrangler Nov 2012 #12

Not to take anything for granted Andy Stanton Nov 2012 #13

Oh, the irony! AaronMayorga Nov 2012 #15

Freepers are going nuts tonight, sad that nearly half the US voter are this stupid. n/t condoleeza Nov 2012 #16

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

1. BLOWOUT! Okay, not really ... but damn!

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:12 PM

Nov 2012

liberalmuse

(18,672 posts)

2. Pew is matching PPP.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:15 PM

Nov 2012

Two polls with the exact same national numbers. Oh, and I might be delusional, but truly believe that Ohio, the state of my birth, will go for Obama, in spite of Husted's shenanigans. Not sure about Florida, but you never know. Obama could eke out something there, but to be honest, the voter suppression right now looks to be quite systematic. I want to see the FL SOS in prison. Rick Scott will leave office in utter disgrace.

daybranch

(1,309 posts)

17. Ohio

Reply to liberalmuse (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 07:03 AM

Nov 2012

Obama Volunteerism is much larger this time than last. We are committed which I will take every day over enthusiastic. We will turn out and turn out everyone in our families. We are changing republicans into democrats in our families. We wil win because we must win.
GOTV Ohio. Elect Obama and all democrats on the ticket.

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

3. Oct. 31- Nov. 3 among 2,709 likely voters. That isn't very many.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:17 PM

Nov 2012

But, it is comparable to the previous one, so that is good at least.

Drunken Irishman

(34,857 posts)

5. For a national poll, it certainly is...

Reply to Coyotl (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:26 PM

Nov 2012

Most national polls are anywhere from 500 to 1,500 sample size.

Shivering Jemmy

(900 posts)

7. You are kidding, right?

Reply to Coyotl (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:30 PM

Nov 2012

That is a very large sample

Coyotl

(15,262 posts)

9. No, some are in the 4,000 range, and some follow the same voters over time

Reply to Shivering Jemmy (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:34 PM

Nov 2012

I studied stats at the graduate level, so I know n=30 is quite sufficient for some inferences.

But this is a Presidential poll and I would like to see more people polled so the margin of error is smaller, esp. at this late date.

scheming daemons

(25,487 posts)

11. Rasmussen's tracker has 1500... Gallup's less than 3000.... Pew's *IS* large

Reply to Coyotl (Reply #9)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 05:01 PM

Nov 2012

Don't know where you studied stats, but Pew's poll is VERY large.

Kablooie

(18,634 posts)

4. I guess the PEW doesn't stink.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:26 PM

Nov 2012

God. I'll bet that line's been overused in the past.

limousineliberal

(55 posts)

6. I can NOT wait until this poll is posted on Freeperville.

Reply to kpete (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:28 PM

Nov 2012

Popcorn ready!!!

Freepers have been so obsessed with Pew in the last month.

calimary

(81,304 posts)

8. Welcome to DU, limousineliberal!

Reply to limousineliberal (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 04:32 PM

Nov 2012

Glad you're here and We Do Need You! (Or would that be We DU Need You?) It's down to hours. I'm a wreck. But a hopeful wreck nonetheless. Let's win this thing.

Now get to work.