Final Swing States Poll: Fired-up voters split, 48%-48%
Source: USA Today
The even split among likely voters in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States reflects gains in the campaign's final weeks by Obama, who has closed a 4-percentage-point deficit from early October in the wake of a disappointing first presidential debate. Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit, and the president's disaster response may have bolstered his standing a bit since then.
The 11th and final Swing States Poll, a USA TODAY series that began a year ago, finds voters increasingly excited about the election and settled in their support. They say they have a clear idea what each candidate would do if elected though that has caused some alarm. Most express concern that a President Romney would return to failed GOP policies and that a re-elected Obama would rely too much on Big Government.
As Election Day approaches, Obama leads 50%-46% among registered voters. That's the first time since Romney clinched the Republican nomination last spring that either candidate has reached the 50% threshold and the biggest margin during that time.
...
Obama has improved his standing in the past few weeks by regaining support among women in the swing states. The gender gap that is, the disparity between the way men and women vote stands at historically high levels after narrowing in the early October. Obama now leads among women by 16 points; Romney leads among men by 10.
Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/
Gallup sucks.
If Gallup has us tied, you know we're well ahead.
Discount WHERE Gallup has us (tied) and focus on the fact that we're at the PEAK of Gallup's polling.
Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)So, inevitably, the media will spin this as good news for Romney.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)Drunken Irishman
(34,857 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)fascisthunter
(29,381 posts)golfguru
(4,987 posts)in this Miss Bumbum Brasil 2012 contest!
http://assets.nydailynews.com/polopoly_fs/1.1171181!/img/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/landscape_635/bumbum30n-4-web.jpg
wordpix
(18,652 posts)and not one R$ canvasser To me, that sounds like R$ is going down in VA
forestpath
(3,102 posts)mostly O supporters!
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)Gallop's poll is better that "+3" in the Pew poll.
Pew has a pro-D in-house effect, and Gallup has a major pro-R in-house effect.
"Tied" in the Gallup poll translates to something like +2 when the in-house effect is factored into the equation.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)And it was most accurate pollster in 2008 and 2004.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)Just because a pollster has a pro-D or pro-R in-house effect, doesn't necessarily mean that get their final poll wrong -- PPP also has a pro-D in-house effect and it was among the most accurate in 2010 and 2008.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)SB2
(23 posts)judesedit
(4,439 posts)er stolen election? Sincerely hope not. Anonymous is watching, as are 780 lawyers and poll watchers from this country. Who knows how many from United Nations. Patron Saint Isadore is the patron saint of computers and computer programmers. It is said if you pray to the Saint to intercede your prayers will be answered faster. Please pray to Isadore to help ensure a fair election this time. I am. And I am not even Catholic. Go Obama! God bless America.
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)blackspade
(10,056 posts)Bloviating for the 1%
Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)This is actually more cause for optimism than the Pew poll where we are 3% up because Gallup has a R+2.5% house effect and Pew has a D+ house effect.
Here is a discussion of these house effects: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/
santamargarita
(3,170 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)mainer
(12,022 posts)In this article, claims Romney has the edge in absentee and early voting. Then in a later article, same edition, says obama has edge in early voting.
VirginiaTarheel
(823 posts)Texas Lawyer
(350 posts)mzmolly
(50,996 posts)Thanks!