Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:20 PM Nov 2012

Final Swing States Poll: Fired-up voters split, 48%-48%

Source: USA Today

The even split among likely voters in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of Swing States reflects gains in the campaign's final weeks by Obama, who has closed a 4-percentage-point deficit from early October in the wake of a disappointing first presidential debate. Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit, and the president's disaster response may have bolstered his standing a bit since then.

The 11th and final Swing States Poll, a USA TODAY series that began a year ago, finds voters increasingly excited about the election and settled in their support. They say they have a clear idea what each candidate would do if elected — though that has caused some alarm. Most express concern that a President Romney would return to failed GOP policies and that a re-elected Obama would rely too much on Big Government.

As Election Day approaches, Obama leads 50%-46% among registered voters. That's the first time since Romney clinched the Republican nomination last spring that either candidate has reached the 50% threshold and the biggest margin during that time.
...

Obama has improved his standing in the past few weeks by regaining support among women in the swing states. The gender gap — that is, the disparity between the way men and women vote — stands at historically high levels after narrowing in the early October. Obama now leads among women by 16 points; Romney leads among men by 10.



Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2012/11/04/obama-romney-swing-states-poll-/1680827/



Gallup sucks.

If Gallup has us tied, you know we're well ahead.

Discount WHERE Gallup has us (tied) and focus on the fact that we're at the PEAK of Gallup's polling.
25 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Final Swing States Poll: Fired-up voters split, 48%-48% (Original Post) Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 OP
Well that's good news for Obama. Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #1
Check out the graph at the link. You can't spin that as anything but doom for Romney Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #3
This was done before Sandy. So, the numbers could be even stronger. Drunken Irishman Nov 2012 #4
Undoubtedly. The article says as that. Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #5
sure it is fascisthunter Nov 2012 #2
I am having trouble deciding whom to vote golfguru Nov 2012 #6
door knocking in VA today, VA resident for O told me the neighborhood is full of O canvassers wordpix Nov 2012 #7
I live in NoVA and got an R$ canvasser yesterday - but my block is forestpath Nov 2012 #8
We'll win both, but our chances in Virginia (71%) are even better than our chances in Colorado (68%) Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #9
Obama leads by 16 with women, down 10 with men. How can it be tied? VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #10
Presumably the poll included more men? Gallop's methodology is way outdated, which is why "tied" in Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #11
Wrong Pew had it tied last week, Romney up 4 just three weeks ago VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #12
Nate Silver assigns a pro-D in-house effect to Pew and a pro-R in-house effect to Gallup. Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #13
here's the link to fivethirtyeight's discussion Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #16
Spam deleted by gkhouston (MIR Team) SB2 Nov 2012 #14
Never, nowhere have I seen a huge crowd for Rob-me.They photoshop everything.Setting us up for anoth judesedit Nov 2012 #15
The crowd size and enthusiasm seems 100% in our favor Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #19
USA/Gallup is a rethug mouth piece. blackspade Nov 2012 #17
Exactly. If Gallup calls it tied, and Gallup has a R +2.5% house effect, then we're up 2.5%. Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #18
Media Bullshit as usual! santamargarita Nov 2012 #20
Of course the media is bullshit (that's what they get paid to sell), but the trend is all Obama! Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #21
usa today contradicts itself mainer Nov 2012 #22
"Most of the interviews were completed before Hurricane Sandy hit" VirginiaTarheel Nov 2012 #23
Exacty. If a R+2% Gallop poll including interviews BEFORE Sandy implies a tie, we are well ahead Texas Lawyer Nov 2012 #24
I hadn't seen that portion. mzmolly Nov 2012 #25

wordpix

(18,652 posts)
7. door knocking in VA today, VA resident for O told me the neighborhood is full of O canvassers
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 07:43 PM
Nov 2012

and not one R$ canvasser To me, that sounds like R$ is going down in VA

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
11. Presumably the poll included more men? Gallop's methodology is way outdated, which is why "tied" in
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:08 PM
Nov 2012

Gallop's poll is better that "+3" in the Pew poll.

Pew has a pro-D in-house effect, and Gallup has a major pro-R in-house effect.

"Tied" in the Gallup poll translates to something like +2 when the in-house effect is factored into the equation.

VirginiaTarheel

(823 posts)
12. Wrong Pew had it tied last week, Romney up 4 just three weeks ago
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:12 PM
Nov 2012

And it was most accurate pollster in 2008 and 2004.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
13. Nate Silver assigns a pro-D in-house effect to Pew and a pro-R in-house effect to Gallup.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 08:23 PM
Nov 2012

Just because a pollster has a pro-D or pro-R in-house effect, doesn't necessarily mean that get their final poll wrong -- PPP also has a pro-D in-house effect and it was among the most accurate in 2010 and 2008.

judesedit

(4,439 posts)
15. Never, nowhere have I seen a huge crowd for Rob-me.They photoshop everything.Setting us up for anoth
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 09:13 PM
Nov 2012

er stolen election? Sincerely hope not. Anonymous is watching, as are 780 lawyers and poll watchers from this country. Who knows how many from United Nations. Patron Saint Isadore is the patron saint of computers and computer programmers. It is said if you pray to the Saint to intercede your prayers will be answered faster. Please pray to Isadore to help ensure a fair election this time. I am. And I am not even Catholic. Go Obama! God bless America.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)
18. Exactly. If Gallup calls it tied, and Gallup has a R +2.5% house effect, then we're up 2.5%.
Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:21 PM
Nov 2012

This is actually more cause for optimism than the Pew poll where we are 3% up because Gallup has a R+2.5% house effect and Pew has a D+ house effect.

Here is a discussion of these house effects: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/06/22/calculating-house-effects-of-polling-firms/

mainer

(12,022 posts)
22. usa today contradicts itself
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:59 PM
Nov 2012

In this article, claims Romney has the edge in absentee and early voting. Then in a later article, same edition, says obama has edge in early voting.

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Final Swing States Poll: ...