Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds (Nate Silver)
Source: New York Times
November 6, 2012, 1:43 AM
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
By NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.
Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.
Read more: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds
Trajan
(19,089 posts)But the Chrysler ad REALLY hurt him .... He was whacked by everybody on that one .... From the workers to management to other GOP .... THAT hurt him ...
The image of Cool-As-A-Cucumber Obama touring the NJ/NYC area with a stout and adoring GOP governor, making pretty, presented a stark contrast to voters .... The implication of a future Romney/Ryan FEMA policy I am sure made some realize how horrendous it would be to NOT have the Federal AND State government working together, as Americans ....
Obama and Christie - That was a snapshot of true 'bipartsianship', and probably caused at least some nostalgia amongst the Moderates and Centrists ....
Obama won by getting UNpolitical and getting Presidential .... IMHO ...
Kolesar
(31,182 posts)That's how they described him in his high school year book!
bleever
(20,616 posts)to say, hey Hissyspit! It's a good time to be us! It's a good time for America.
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)graham4anything
(11,464 posts)fasttense
(17,301 posts)Romney has an 8.4% chance of winning.
If Nate gets it wrong then you know the election was rigged, even if Nate would never admit it.
Hissyspit
(45,788 posts)proverbialwisdom
(4,959 posts)tawadi
(2,110 posts)Until then, I am not believing anything I hear or see in the news.
Rob H.
(5,351 posts)The GOP is probably going to do everything they can to steal as many votes and suppress as many eligible Democratic voters as humanly* possible.
*Note: For purposes of this argument and this argument only, it's assumed that Romney, Rove, and Ryan are at least nominally human; there is a strong chance that this may be giving them too much credit.