Last edited Sat Jan 21, 2012, 12:47 PM - Edit history (1)

Here's an article from Reuters with a link:

(Reuters) - The Muslim Brotherhood's electoral coalition has won 38 percent of seats allocated to party lists for Egypt's parliament, with Islamists of various stripes taking more than two thirds of the assembly, in line with their own forecasts.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/21/us-egypt-elections-idUSTRE80K0EM20120121

You posted while I searched elsewhere.

btw - posting more than .the first para max in a 3 para article goes outside of fair use.

I updated the article to only one paragraph.

Fair use has to be in context with article length and sometimes it may even only be safe to post a sentence or two.

Egypt had the chance to make things right, but they didn't and instead they have created a radical, right-wing regime of their own choosing. They are on their way to a shariah police state.

The frightening thing is that I look at Egypt, and see what might be happening next year if the Tea Party has their way. There would be no more freedom and equality for all peoples, those of African descent would oscillate from every tree in America, and the radical right will be goose-stepping to a dark, hopeless dictatorship ruled by biblical law.

that the Brotherhood already had a substantial number of seats in other names. Under Mubarak they were not allowed to field candidates in the Bro's name : they stood as independents instead. Now they can stand under their own colours.

...when it was instated. It could take several generations for the Middle East to reform, now that it is being allowed to actually practice democracy, as opposed to being forced into dictatorship by foreign countries.

Oh forget it.
The protests were fun for at least awhile, though....
Hey - Time magazine person of year, right?!
Have that to hold on to.

So disappointing.

Will people, and, the world, ever be released from the iron grip of fear instilled into individual and collective conscoiusness by authoritarian fear based religions?

The less educated always make poor "fundamental" choices. Fuck "fundamental".

See what happens if you give them elections again.

71% did not support hard core Islamists. A lot more will be known when it becomes apparent who the Brotherhood reaches out to more, Salafist or the more secular parties. I'm not laying odds on it, but if the Brotherhood attempts to find middle ground with Liberals that could end up well. A legitimate Islamic government in the Arab world seeking good relations with moderates might be a model that could bring real stability to the region - and governments that can negotiate with Israel on behalf of their own people, not over the heads of them.

As will the liberals.

Are values or power more important to them?

In one scenario, the liberals will have to agree to stuff that they find repressive. The Ikhwan will have to agree to stuff they find immoral. It's likely that each group will find their compromises mere stepping stones to getting more power and control and making sure tha everybody does things their way. In other words, compromises aren't rooted in respect but in maneuvering for authoritarian control. This won't provide stability, and the #1 thing that a society in extreme transition needs is a route to stability that doesn't involve more authoritarianism. Few claim they want authoritarianism, most simply delude themselves.

In a second scenario, the Ikhwan will work with the Salafiy. They will then have to decide whether to risk alienating liberals--those who confused 5% with 99% in a public act of utter innumeracy--or being more conservative than they'd otherwise be at first. The Salafiyoun might moderate slightly in details that they can view as mere tradition (a feat for the righteous), but are unlikely to give *too* much. There may be a few points of contention between them, but it's likely that the Salafiy can find a way to include enough Ikhwan to be content, and the Ikhwan will find an easier accommodation.

Still, they've been trained to want power and control, and without a change in mindset it's going to be a rough road. Look at Russia--in 1992 everybody was happy and assumed that Russians would immediately be like "us"--whatever that means. Others said that it would take generations--the first generation would try to continue the way they had been, the second generation would start real change in society, and the third would finally reach some sort of stable conclusion. My Russian teacher was in the latter camp, and when he talked about "mentality" his much brighter students chuckled. Yet the first generation went between anarchic El'tsyn (better for the country, if truth be told, than Putin) then controlling Putin; the second generation, those we now think are finally as enlightened as us, are beginning to protest. They won't get it right, but probably get it better--yet the instability they bring bears a lot of risk. Gen-3 will probably get it right, if the current risk doesn't yield a lot of socio-political regression.

and I'm not especially interested in becoming one. I have, at best, superficial knowledge and vaguely supported beliefs about Egyptian society, Tahrir Square and the historic protests that toppled Hosni Mubarak, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egyptian political parties, etc.

That said, anytime I've heard any official spokesperson for the Muslim Brotherhood's FJP party in Egypt speak, they sound all of the right notes. For example, the FJP's new assembly speaker-elect Saad al-Katatni told Reuters recently, ""The priorities are meeting the demands of the revolution, including the rights of the injured and those killed in the uprising."

It's not easy, maybe, to imagine that everyone in the world does not automatically and innately share our Western and American thought and the philosophical traditions handed down through the enlightenment and other schools of thought like American pragmatism or utilitarianism.

I certainly hope that this situation, over which I have absolutely no control or influence, works out for the good of the Egyptian people.

The two decidedly secular parties garnered 3rd and 4th in the party election. And, iirc, the IB is open to a more moderate coalition style government. At this point the army appears to be the wild card...

Messy.

All the Nile cruises run from the UK and the all inclusive beach resorts seem just fine at present. There were rumours the Bro might clamp down on drinking but in the knowledge they need tourists even that is doubtful.

the Muslim Brotherhood has been working with the poor to ensure that they were taken care of and being kind in a world of a harsh regime would be remembered and rewarded.

There are some reports that the MB has changed and is not as militant as it once was - hopefully those reports are correct.

Obama's fault!!

I'm not saying it's a bad thing. Egyptian people voted - so what? But the US did interfere in Egypt's affairs and worked to overthrow the previous government.

will we isolate them and cut them off as we did Hamas? Or is it easier and less risky to do that to people who are already powerless?
In the event the West decides to do this we will see a new subdividing of the ME

it is Congress that holds the purse strings and with the teabagger Congress we have right now they could vote to cut Egypt off as it were making anything Obama or the State department says empty, and with this being an election year it is all more possible Congress will do this

I did not mention Israel in my post, if you pay attention to our Congress they have not been the most supportive of foreign aid in general

I'm not very hopeful. Only 5 women were elected out of almost 500 seats (Mubarak's quota for women MPs was one of the first things abolished for the election).

What a damn shame.

Women are half of the population. Therefore at least 50% of the seats should be reserved for women (if not more to chair subcommittees on women's issues). And ideally there should be reserved seats for minorities and LGBTQI individuals.

Reserved seats for "LGBTQI individuals", in EGYPT?????

Talk about having no situational awareness. Israel is the only place in the ME where being openly LGBT is OK and not a death sentence, either de jure or de facto. So maybe it is more productive to worry about finding ways to keep LGBT people from being killed if they are open about it, and to worry about things like proportional representation later.

You have to feel bad for Egypt. They import 1/2 of their food and at the current rate of decline their foreign reserves of cash will be gone in a few months.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/7283/Business/Economy/Decline-in-foreign-currencies-revenues-weighs-on-E.aspx
http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/3/12/25903/Business/Economy/Egypt-foreign-reserves-post-largest-drop-since-Apr.aspx
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/11/04/egypts-foreign-reserves-even-lower-than-you-think/#axzz1k9wpJ2dH
http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2011/11/16/egypts-pound-has-a-distressed-future/#ixzz1eRPV6DC0

No one is going to fork over 50 billion/yr, 2/3 of which will be stolen by the keptocrats, in order to feed Egyptian peasants. So what is the prognosis? Well, it was increases in wheat prices that triggered the Arab Spring.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2011/jul/17/bread-food-arab-spring

What do you think is going to be going on a few months when things get really bad? Look for lots more reports of attacks on Copts to be sure. The Copts are really the indigenous Egytians, Christians who had been Christian for about 600 years before being conquered by Muslim invaders. Perfect targets for Salafists who will blame kaffirs for all the trouble. After, since there are no Jews to persecute (already driven out), blame the Copts, burn their churches, rape and convert (in that order) their women. I predict that they will be wiped out within a few years. But that won't solve anything, because the kaffirs who are really to blame are untouchable.

In fact it is China that poses an existential threat to the Arab world.

China has more pigs than the rest of the world put together.

http://ajw.asahi.com/article/asia/AJ201109209897

And those numbers are increasing since China is becoming rich and pork is the favored meat. So China will buy more and more of the surplus agricultural stuff that we produce for the world market to feed their pigs. While idiotic policies like using corn for ethanol fuel have boosted prices (leading to tortilla riots in Mexico), the inexorable growth of China will push food prices up in the long term, increasingly pricing poorer consumers out of the market. Chinese pigs will eat while Arab peasants starve (in countries without oil).

It is going to get really ugly really soon.

And you are worried about proportional representation for LGBT folks in the Egyptian legislature?

especially for the Coptic Christian minority. Did no one see this coming through all that throw-the-bastards-out euphoria??

And frankly, I'm beginning to wonder if perhaps some Intel people may have helped with that......

It is only the gullible, those who saw in Tahrir Sq. a reflection of themselves as opposed to the reality of Egypt, who believe that somehow the Islamists "highjacked" the election. After all, this is Egypt, where an estimated 97% of females undergo genital mutilation (how progressive of them!), even though the practice was banned in 2007.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Female_genital_mutilation

The fact is that a huge majority of Egyptians are islamic fundamentalists (after all, Sayyid Qutb was an Egyptian), and a big bunch of that group are in fact Salafists - which explains the vote breakdown among the Islamist parties. Anyone who knew anything about Egypt knew perfectly well that this would be the outcome once Mubarak was gone.

And for anyone who thinks that more exposure to the modern world will help shape Egyptian attitudes toward a more progressive bent, the short account of Sayyid Qutb's visit to the US is instructive.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sayyid_Qutb

It was a key feature in pushing him to found the Muslim Brotherhood.

Perhaps you have a pessimistic view of humanity. Me, not so much.
That said, Sayyid Qutb was a horrible hypocritical little fascist piece of garbage and frankly, I'm glad he met the hangman at the end of August, 1966.

Actually, I am in general an optimist. For example, I am extremely optimistic for the long-term (40 year) future of the US, India, China, subsaharan Africa...

For example, I do not believe that the reemergence of China onto the world stage after a historically anomalous 200 years of being dominated by outsiders will lead to a world war, the way that catastrophic war erupted in Europe when the European system could not accommodate the rise of a unified German state.

And after 40 years who can make predictions about anything, especially if ideas about the Singularity by Kurzweil and others are correct (google "tech singularity&quot .

But when it comes to the Arab world and Egypt in particular, I am sorry to say that my pessimism is solidly grounded in fact. The results of the elections in Egypt are just one small indicator of the illiberal attitudes embraced by the population. We are talking about a country with a 97% rate of female genital mutilation - which has been ILLEGAL since 2007!

Unfortunately it is very difficult for people in the West to really put themselves in the shoes of Arab peasants whose thinking is separated from ours by hundreds of years of development, the enlightenment, democratic institutions, the sexual revolution, etc..

Things are going to slowly go from bad to worse as Egypt, which imports 1/2 of its food, runs out of money. So Egypt will starve. Then will come the riots, the blaming of the Copts and the burning of their churches, all increasing the economic chaos and killing what tourism is left. Then it will degenerate into Somalia on the Nile and the greatest humanitarian disaster the 21st century has seen. And I don't see how anyone can do anything about it.

It is a bleak picture, to be sure. Unfortunately it is the only one in accord with the data. Just keep an eye out for what happens to the Copts. When you hear of widespread riots against them you will now that the shit is beginning to hit the fan.

boycotted this election.

I'm afraid a boycott might have actually made things worse.