Who is "we", Kemosabe? Is Russia involved? Is it going to do something?

as much as China and Russia may hate America, they also do not want another korean War,which almost became wwIII. Not to mention, we are not talking about a wide part of the world, if any nukes go off, the results will be felt everywhere from China to Alaska, and Sibeeria in between. Do not forget that while Siberia is not the heartland of Russia by any means, it is an important area of fishing, shipping, and oil; the Russians do not want to have radiation in their Oil and Fish.

price of oil quadruple, they have tons of oil and natural gas, gold too.

Americans may not have realized that, but they do, especially since chernobyl hit them in their old breadbasket of the Ukraine. Pution also knows one bad winter can get ptichforks at his door, and that the Oligrachs of Oil would gladly let him be thrown to the wolves in the hopes they could take over themselves.

especially when that would play right into the hands of America, aka the breadbasket of the world. No sane leader riskes getting radiation when the country is still recovering from having it's fruit and bread basket (the ukraine) affected by Chernobyl.

responding to the threats with a show of strength. China, we haven't heard much from, more of a wimpy "come on guys, knock it off"--I am just wondering what they plan to DO if a war is imminent--get control of KJU, stay neutral, hamper our efforts, or jump in against us? I'm sure they don't want trouble over there, but I'm also sure that everyone loves to see us getting drained by repeated military action (thanks Bush/Cheney crew).

South Korean President Park is the daughter of the late South Korean dictator. Her conservative government replaces a conservative government that was hard line. She may be conflicted at home, plus her policy toward North Korea looks to be a work in progress. North Korea also has a history of new provacations shortly after a new South Korean leader is installed so some of this is same old, same old.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-202_162-57571004/s-koreas-first-female-president-faces-n-korea-crisis/

TwilightGardener

Geography my friend - Russia do have a shared border with DKPR and have no interest in a war on the Korean penculinia, as PRC also have, no interest in a war.. Mostly because a war who it is more than possible will end in a disaster in DKPR - would make ten of thousands - maybe hundreds of thousands of refugees from DKPR over the border to Russia and to PRC. Who have little to muster to help them - as the area we are talking about, is not exactly the border crossing in Tuijana... A lot of wilderness - a lot of areas where it is cold and harsh in the winter - and even in the summer is rather on the hard side to live at...

PRC and Russia have more than once the last couple of year stated rather clearly that they have no interest in a war - and also is badly readying for a influct by the hundreds of thousands from PRC if the country break down and may decide it is time to leave for better life elsewhere... Civil defense drills who have been made both in Republic of Korea - in Peoples republic of China - and in the Russian federation - have all shown one thing - the inflict of millions of starving north koreans would go down as a easy job - rather the opposite.. neither ROK, PRC and the Russians have the resources in the area - to make sure everyone fleeing from DKPR have the possibility of shelter - medical attention or food.. The last couple of years - specially after some of the worst famines in DKPR - PRC had many civil defense drills - with the help of the army - who shown pretty clearly that the PRC was in no way ready for a catastrophic meltdown in DKRP political leadership... The current leader in DKPR, is a person who form the outside have some issues with the old guard - who might not be faithfully to him as they was to the old Kim Jung Il.. Not to say, the "eternal President" Kim Il Sung... It is rumored that it have been a lot of purges in the upper political leadership - where some even have been executed - by mortars and sutch... Nasty leadership change with other words.. From what I have been able to understand - the current leader, is a young man, who might not have earned any "stripes" in the current political and military leadership in DKPR. He need to show he is a tuff as the other Kim's who have been in power - and he might be more reckless than his father and grand father was. (they was playing a chess game with the rest of the world but they did know where the boundaries was).. The current Kim Jung Un, might not know where the boundaries is - and he might have to prove himself in the eyes of the older guards who still have a lot of the real power in the regime.. For some reason I fear he is not in real control over the state - and have to play a chess game both inside against others who want to get the control - both the political and military elders - (the Generals in DKPR is used to a life style who is far different from the ordinary north koreans live to put it blunt) and outside against ROK - the US, China - Russia Japan and a lot of others nations, who he might not know really where to put... DKRP have been in a lot of trouble for some years now - not just a leadership change - but as the economy have continued to deteriorate - it is clearly that the regime have just one thing to bolster its power - the army, who is given most of the resources DKPR have to their own needs... most of the food - medicines - resources at a general - goes to the army instead of the civilian community... It also worth pointing to the fact that DKPR and ROK technically still is at war - a war who was not ended in 1953, an armistice was deiced - but never a really peace treaty - something that the new leadership in DKPR deiced to walk away from - and it made the problems in Korea that much worse.. Now DKPR and ROK - and therefore also most of the UN are at war with DKRP.. The current leadership in DKRP is maybe gambling here - and believing at least PRC will give them a hand, if war with ROK, the US and most of the UN will start again.... But it is more doubtfully than ever - as PRC will not rish everything they have been able to build up the last 25 years - because of a feuding between to korean states.. PRC have also stated - if DKPR was to start any hostile actions against ROC - the treaty between the two country's will be void - and they will be on their own...

The big issue with a war at the korean penculvania, would be a horrible toll on the population of both nations.. Last time it was a war there - more than 3 million in ROK died as a result of the war - some similar numbers was the case in DKPR.. A new war will be at least as horrible as the last war - and it is feared that more than 1 million koreans will be killed, in the first 24 hour of a war between the two korean states... And the war will not end in just 24 hours - it will possible drag on for a long while, before the US, ROK and UN will be able to put enough soldiers on the ground - or the DKPR military will deteriorate to the point where the discipline will just fall appart... And with the iron discipline the military forces in DKPR have - I doubt it will be any easy task to fall apart either... DKPR are not Iraq - and it is doubtfully that the army will just vanish as it did in Iraq when the US/UK forces was pushing true Baghdad.. And current american estimates for an army to wage a war with DKPR, is at least 90.000 strong - possible more than 100.000 even with he military might the US can muster - that be in the air or at sea.. And the US have some tools on the ground too - to make it a uncomfortable war for the DKPR army... But DKPR have been digging for this for the last 60 year - and have more than one place to hide - in a war with ROK or the US...

Anyway you look at it - a war in Korea, would be a horrible thing, with the possibility of others to be involved - Neither Russia and China will have american soldiers on their border - China have even been thinking about making them self a "buffer zone" in the event of a war between DKPR and ROK - where them self put up a puppet regime of sorts - maybe with the help of parts of the leftover governance from DKPR.. I doubt Russia will like to have american soldiers on their border - and will do what they need to do - to make sure their interest in the area is made possible too.. And a war is a messy and chaotic thing in general - so the possibility of units from PRC, Russia and the ROK-US forces could end up shooting at another is more than possible - and then the world would be VERY interesting for a while... DKPR have the possibility to devastate the geo - political landscape between Russia, China - ROK, Japan and US and a lot of other nations in the area..

But then again - it is just my two cents on the issue - Hopefully my writing wil never be anything than a theory...
Diclotican

having potential nuclear fallout (god help us), refugees, etc. affecting that region--just wondering what the "we" meant in terms of their intentions when it comes to support, interference, etc. I feel like China should be shutting down NK's stupidity by now, and they don't seem to be. Russia was kind of chiding us for our "unilateral" military exercise response, which makes me wonder if NK isn't getting some sort of tacit encouragement to challenge SK and the US, this time around, and they all expect us to just ignore it or back down. I am certain our flights were meant as a warning not just to NK, but to China and Russia as well.

TwilightGardener

It is no doubt that a conflict in Korea - will rapture a lot of problems - and issues who have been there since the end of the second world war.. DKPR is the result of the second world war - and the current conflict between DKPR and ROK is now rather serious - as DKPR is made pretty clear that they are at a state of war...

And even without the nuclear issue - who is a danger no one should try to hold under the rug... Even a primitive bomb, will devastate most city's in the world - and devastate a whole country with the fallout.. The two Koreans - and the other nations who would be involved in a war, would be devastating for everyone - at least for the DKPR, who's civilian population would have less to survive on than their cousins in the South.

PRC have their own problems - they have been changing the guards as it is - no easy task in a country of 1.5 billion, and it have been some problems, with corruption on the highest level - and some who might have their feather ruffered a little by it all... The current leadership in PRC would need time to get everything under control - and in the meantime DKPR have a "window" to play the irritate nation, who might get some out of it.. As others, more intelligent and smart than I have pointed out - the new leader in DKPR might not be in charge of it all yet.. The current leader is a young man - who have not made a mark on his leader style - and he might know a few things about DKPR that we do not know - and is maybe trying to muster support from the population by showing of how powerfully his nation is - and how important DKPR are on the world scene..

PRC might also use DKPR as a proxy - to se how long they can turn the knot, without a shooting war - but they might not have the same power over Pyongyang as they once had - the former leader of DKPR was maybe more in line with China - and Russia - the new leader of DKPR looks like he want to play his own music - and is not happy being a second musician to PRC.. And he have to show his own proveness in the leadership system - as many of the old guard - who have not been retired - or killed outright - still hold a lot of the real power in the country.. And some of them still want to settle the issue with ROK once and for all...

Of course the aircrafts who flew over ROK, as a part of the military training exercises was part of showing the flag to both DKPR, PRC and Russia - Both the B52 and the B2 was all part of showing the flag - to the other interest in the area. To tell, that US have the tools to bomb enemies all over the place - and that the military in the US, is ready to defend their friends and allies against enemies, even if the Republicans is plying a children's game with the US president.. And the US do have a lot of tools, to fight wars from the sky - the mighty B52, or the smaller, but far more deadly B2 bombers...

I hope ROK, DKPR, USA, Japan, China and Russia - will be able to stop before a war start - but to be honest - it looks dark, very dark as DKPR is playing a very high stake of chess now - a game of chess I am not sure the current leadership in DKPR really know how to play... He is young - and inexperienced with all the "little things" I suspect.. And I doubt he have the same stand of his generals - as the former Kim had when he was leader of DKPR... To me it looks like the current leadership is in real internal troubles - the generals are not really respecting their leader - and the Generals is not accepting him as their real leader... He might not hold the reigns of power.. It was no doubt the former Kim's was holding the reign of power - the current one was pushed into the light as an result of the older Kim's illness - and even though he have been given education abroad - no less than in Switzerland if the rumor is true - it looks like he might yet have to master some of the finer prints of the world outside DKPR..
Or it could be that he really believe his own propaganda - about the fitness of the DKPR, and specially the military forces... From the pictures we have been shown the last couple of years - it looks like he still have a long way to go - to really get the generals to do HIS biddings... He might have to execute a few more generals to get the message true I guess...

Diclotican

Thanks for the posts - really good insights.

boguspotus

I read a lot And it have always interested me - about this type of things. And sometimes I might even be able to put the dots togheter to something that is resonable for others to read too..

Diclotican

be to stave off a coup by his Generals?

n/t

JimDandy

It is absolutely a possibility, that Kim Jung Un in fact is rattling the sabers - in way to stave off a coup by the generals - as I have written before I doubt the generals in DKPR have really anyone respect for the leader - and even though in the mind and hearts of the population the Kim Dynasty is good like - the generals who command the soldiers know othervice... And specially in the late years of Kim Jung Il I think some generals got a more free room to govern them self - not because Kim Jung Il wanted it - more because the central body of the government was not up to the task controlling the was military anymore... The young Kin Jung Un is trying to get control - as he know that a rouge general is a bad news for himself..

On the other hand - DKPR is a country who is very controlled on the top of the power pyramid - and all who know something in DKPR, is in agreement that disagreement inside the state is very fast stamped out - with dire consequences for the perpetrators of that crime.. It might be a ploy by the Kim Jung Un to stamp out any disagreement inside the general quarters - to se how powerfully his own reign really is - can he make it all the way to the brink of war ?.. After he inherited the power from his fathers - it is rumored a whole bunch of generals and other high ranking officers was executed - or demanded to retire so the new regime could fasten the power and have few of the old guard sitting on the bench... He might not have all of them on the same page yet - and is using this brinkmanship to make sure he do have all the generals at the same page - and not at the bench..

I do not know - I just guess out from what I have information about - but all of the above is possible - or impossible - even a regime like DKPR wil over time get some in power - who might want to turn the country to something else... Or it might be Kim Jung Un who want to turn the ship around - but the generals in power wil not.. After all if change happened - it is more than posible that they wil loose the priviliges they have today - maybe even lose their power and command... Kim Jung Un is maybe a young man - but he have studied abroad - and have understood a few things about the world outside - and might want to turn DKPR a little around... Not that I belive DKPR to become a democratic republic, with a elected leader in my lifetime... I belive DKPR rather would be a tight regime - with a dictator on the top - and ruled by fear and harsh metodes... And maybe more than once wil be the epicenter of a lot of problems for the world.

Diclotican

(right after Rodman's visit) and the emotional tone of the statements coming from DKPR seem to be reactionary, as if extreme offense was taken over a broken trust.

KJU had just stated that Obama should call him to talk and shortly thereafter the bellicose, braying dominos start falling. Those two events seem to me to have two different sets of fingerprints on them-very schizophrenic.

Thanks for your thoughtful analysis, Diclotican.

has not been able to fully form her cabinet yet (kind of in disarray) and really get her administration going, so I think NK sees an opportunity to test her while she's still figuring everything out. I think that may be why we are showing more coordination with SK right now than usual--they're a little more vulnerable for the time being. And WE'RE being tested, obviously, at the same time--and the world knows we really don't want or need this crap now, but we have to show resolve.

TwilightGardener

You have absolutely a point there - the new South Korean President -a female no less - and also a daughter of a former dictator of South Korea (family ties goes a long way in Asia! ) have not yet formed her cabinet, and have been thrown off guard now - by this political hardball by the DKPR leadership.. DKRP have a window of opportunity where they might even be able to get some out of it all - food for the population - and all the other resources DKPR desperately need as it have been some very problematic years for the country... PRC who trade with DKPR the most - have not exactly shown to much mercy with their friend across the border - and is maybe also somewhat tired about the fellow who is in charge in DKPR...

I think it is many reasons US and ROK now are working very tight - when it come to military operations - and also other means that is not so clearly to the naked eye.. I am pretty sure the intelligence system in both ROK and the US is on high gear now - and is trying to get a grasp on what the DKPR really want.. All this blustering the DKPR is showing - is covering something worse - maybe the bad state of the DKPR itself... A hungry people, tend to be restless - and it is rumored that it have been more than one time of outright violence in some provinces in DKPR the last couple of years... Rumors -but no outright evidences of the situation.. No one know - but the rumors is there yet..

The world do not need a conflict in Korea at all - we have as it is, to much unstable parts of the world - and as the world economy is at best unstable - it is not much who cold turn it is to anything worse than it is today.. It is a lot of balloons in the air all over the place - and sometimes the balloons have to fall down - with consequences for the future.. Hostility is the last one we need - but as many have many balloons in the air - it might end not as we wish... And I guess DKPR is testing the US resolve to defend ROK against DKPR aggression - somehow they might believe President Obama to be a person who could be bullied if you just play a high enough game of chess.. Hopefully President Obama can play a better game of chess than DKPR...

Diocletian

“小朋友不听话，该打打屁股了." Small friends that don't listen to words should have their asses hit.)

Time to smack the bad children, China!

I believe all of this is because China has a new president, South Korea has a new president and the new psycho in charge of crazy land is trying to exert his influence.

However, Jabba the Kim is now in a bad position. If he attacks, he gets destroyed. if he backs down, he's assassinated due to weakness. Welcome to brinksmanship, North Korea. You're fucked no matter what you do.

Nanjing to Seoul

I think Deng Xiaoping did had a point - when he stated that.. Small friend tend to be better of, if they listen to the bigger friend - if the bigger friend is telling something - but sometimes the younger one, tend to not listen to the older one, regardless of the wisdom.

And anyhow you look at it - The current Kim do have played himself into a corner - where it is no easy way out.. He might back down - and will be killed in a palace coup by the next couple of years - (or if he is smart enough might be able to kill of his opponents before they got to him, some is like that... ) Or he might go all the way - and get destroyed anyhow... It is a nightmare regardless how you look at it..

And PRC need to get DKPR under some control - if it means PRC taking a more direct action against DKPR is anyones guess... But as you point out - and others also have - PRC, and ROK have all had leadership change - and it will take some time for them to get up to speed on anything..

Diclotican