to the public.

will probably never afford the new vehicles that our income used to afford. Second-hand only for us, like everything else.

with 166,000 miles on it) and I'm all but certain that was my last new vehicle purchase.

The cars I've bought since that purchase were all at least 4 years old...

I don't have that kind of spare change lying around to evaporate just driving it off the lot.

But I do realize someone had to make an initial purchase on the vehicle sometime.

reducing their profits is unthinkable.

how high the price of new vehicles is AND by how crappy the mileage still is on most of the vehicles sold today.

I have never bought a new vehicle and don't plan to. IMHO linking the economy to how many new cars are sold is very out-dated at this point. The average age of a vehicle on the road in the USA is 11 years.

A 2003 Subaru Forester with 200k, a 2001 Outback with 140k, and a 1995 Mazda small pickup with 92,000k. I lucked into the Mazda a couple of years ago with less than 90k original miles & snatched it up at $3500. In a couple of years I'll put Classic plates on it.

AWD is nice, from a safety standpoint, but man, do you pay for the privilege in fuel economy. I sold my 2000 impreza for that reason alone.

icy, snow-covered, or deeply muddy, 5 miles of backroads until we can get out to anything that is reliably plowed--AWD is worth it for us. I put about 10,000 mi. a year on my Subaru & expect that number to drop when I can drive less for a living.

The "privilege" of AWD is the privilege of being able to get anywhere safely in a northern Wisconsin winter. This is not a good time to talk to me about that sort of privilege. I just spent a couple hours wrestling the chains onto the tires of my tractor & getting the backblade mounted for winter snowplowing.

It's the cost of doing business, and that region certainly warrants it, weather-wise, for entire months out of the year.

I see a lot of them out here in Seattle, but the weather only justifies it maybe 10 days out of the year. (Only time we get actual ice and snow)

The only major problem I have had was with the brakes. But that was my fault. Many years ago, I broke my ankle and had to drive with two feet, and I have a habit of riding the brakes, which has worn them out twice. I cannot stop this habit because it is sort of an automatic reflex. So, I have to pay the price of new brakes every few years.

is that there is a shortage of them available, driving up the cost. Also bank's interest rates are higher for used autos, making new almost comparable in price to used.

No way out except to opt out of driving or opt in to autos-sharing, which insurance companies won't insure.
We're stuck.

used cars are everywhere in my city and they have taken over small businesses.

but they are all over-priced by the dealers as far as I can tell...

giving something a car wash and an oil change doesn't justify an extra thousand or two in my book

Please note, all prices given below are TRADE IN VALUES for vehicles, as determined by KBB.

First, lets look at used cars older the 20 years old. i.e. 1993 models. A 1993 GMC 3/4 ton truck is worth about $1000 trade in. You can get about $200 in scrap value fir it. A 1993 Cavalier is worth $500 trade. Scrap value for both is about $200.

Scrap is still in huge demand from China, thus cars older then 10 years old, if NOT close to mechanically sound, are worth more in scrap then as a automobile. If some of the parts are usable for other cars, if they is anything wrong with the engine, it will be scraped. A new engine will cost anywhere from $1000-$2000 dollars, a new Auto Transmission anywhere from $500-1500. Please note this does NOT include installation, some people will try to save a car they have by installing the engine or transmission themselves. Thus a demand for engines and transmissions from cars scrapped do to extensive body damage.

A ten year old GMC 3/4 ton pickup goes for about $4000. A 2003 Cavalier goes for about $1000. Thus it is worth it for people to replace an engine in a 10 year old pickup but NOT a 10 year old car. in fact once a car his the ten year mark it is done (a pickup can last longer, because no one cares how a ten year old pickup looks, as long as it can still be used for hauling).

This is complicated by the exports of US Used cars. Small cars made new for the American Market are generally shipped used to the far east, or southern Europe (Spain, Italy and Greece). While the Southern European market is dead, the Far Eastern Market is still hopping. Mid size and larger US cars are NOT liked in either market, and thus end up going to Latin America or the Mid East.

From the 1940s till the 1990s the general rule of thumb was the larger the engine the longer it would last (and to a degree this is still true, but with modern computers and the adoption of unleaded gasoline less likely then it had been prior to about 1990). In that time period a V-8 was viewed as an engine that would last twice as long as a four. Thus Americans looking for used cars disliked buying cars with 4 or 6 cylinders (This started to change in the 1970s as the V-6s came in, but I talking about MARKETING not was actually the case with engines).

Thus over the last 50 or so years, the US Used car market has been dominated by larger cars. V-8 till the 1980s then V-6s till today. The need for greater fuel economy has affected this market. While the prejudice is still for V-6s, people known 4s give better fuel economy, thus increase demand for 4 cylinder engines.

The problem the demand overseas still exists. In fact with the boom in China I suspect the demand for small cars in the countries around China (excluding Japan) has increased and with it a willingness to pay more for a used US Car.

A further factor is this trade is the engine themselves, In warmer climates you can run a heavier oil in the car then you can in the US. That heavier oil can "Solve" a lot of internal engine problems (Old US pick up trucks, whose engines were on their last legs where often shipped in Mexico for resale, with 90 weight oil in the engine to cover up problems with the engine. Some of these pickups lasted for years running on heavy oil). While the Latin American and Mid East Markets are good, both pale in comparison to the Far East, thus most US large cars stayed in the US, while most small cars made for the US market were shipped overseas.

Thus, the US Used car market was dominated by mid size to large cars and pickups (and later SUVs). The Mini-van is like the old Station Wagon, its main market new and used is in the US, and thus has poor resale overseas and thus you see a lot more of them in US used car lots then you see other vehicles which can be shipped overseas. Thus a 1993 van is worth about $500 today, unlike a 1993 pickup which is worth about $1000 today. A 2003 pickup is worth $4000, while a 2003 van is worth only $3000 and a 2003 compact car $1000 and a 2003 Dodge Minivan also selling for $1000.

Thus between the cost of new engines or transmissions AND what they can sell for overseas, used cars in the US not yet 10 years old are in extensive demand. 10 years old, or older, the demand still exists if the engine AND transmission is still in good shape, but if either has to be repaired, it is worth more in scrap then as a complete automobile. With less and less people buying new, but the US still being a country where you need to car to do most things, the demand for used cars not yet 10 years old is up.

Just a comment that the used car market is driven as much as by domestic demand as the demand overseas. Certain cars are NOT popular overseas, large Pick ups, Station wagons and Minivans are the three types of vehicles most restricted to the US Market (Through Pickups are popular South of the Border). Overseas there is a preference for Standard Transmissions not the Automatics liked by Americans (Through this is changing, but more in the direction of automated manual transmission as opposed to US style Automatic Transmissions). This reduces the demand for US Used cars originally made for the US new car market, but the preference for manual transmission is heavier in Europe then in the Far East (and the recent demand is from the Far East NOT Europe).

Thus the cheapest cars in a Used car lot should be mini-vans (Station Wagons are long gone even from the used car market) followed by large US cars, Mid Size cars and then compact cars (Please note Large US Cars, Mid Size cars and Compact cars include cars made overseas for the US Market).

Now, in my area, pickups and SUVs are in demand, thus fill used car lots. It is rare to see a full size van in a used car lot. In the used car lots it is rare to see anything smaller then a mid size car (through one "used car" lot also sell a three wheel new automobile from China. it has sold two in the last year. He held one for about six months, then sold it and replaced it with another one, more a come on then anything else, catch my eye).

with a used one. I got rid of it when the deal of 09 were out...funny thing is I paid 6 thousand less for the new one taxes included and the trade then the old one. After 10yrs they go down quick.

After about ten years, they are worth about $2500 Purchased Price ($1000 trade in). After that the drop in price is gradual, till about 20 years if the engine and transmission is good, worth about twice sometimes triple scrap value . Pickups retain their value as they age from 10 years to 20 years old, for demand from south of the border keeps the price up (and many people like a pickup for general purpose use, and thus buy one that is running condition, even if they main source of transportation is something else).

Thus a 20 year old car sells retail at about $1500, while the trade in value is just $500. Pickups sell for more even if 20 years old.

You obviously have a pretty deep knowledge of the topic.

I just deal with a lot of people who are buying and driving 10-20 year old cars. My father use to have to buy such cars, so I have some previous experience with 10-20 year old vehicles. For example my father once brought home a vehicle that I was amazed at, sharp looking car, but I never rode in it, even through I wanted to, for within a week it was gone, it had broken down and had to be junked. My father also had a 1960 VW bug in the early 1970s, another ten year old vehicle, that ran and ran (It is the only vehicle I ever saw that you had to raise the hood to fill the gas tank). When the engine went it was cheaper to buy something else then replace its engine, and in his case to do without for my father had another car and the Bug had been just a second car for him).

From my own experience and from what I learn from my clients is that if the car is worth less then $2000 it is NOT worth buying. The cost to keep it up exceeds the saving from buying a car that cheap. On the other hand, if you have it, it is better to keep repairing it then to trade it in, until something major goes (replace the tires, replace the filters, replace the brakes, but if the engine or transmission goes, get rid of it).

I also go on the net and try to see what is happening in the world. I get on some odd sights and before the net I would read newspapers and magazines for articles on various items. The used car trade has always interested me and when I run across something about the trade I read it. Now I have to be careful, some information true in my youth are no longer true.

The Best example of this is Air Conditioning from the Factory. As late as the 1960s it was better to buy a car WITHOUT Air conditioning and get it added after market, then to get it factory installed. The reason for this was prior to about 1970s, cars were designed for air flow in hot weather with A/C. Huge air vents and air channels were in every car, to flow that air. If the car was moving that air flow was sufficient to keep you cool. If you added A/C from the factory, the car makers would seal off the air vents and thus you had to use A/C no matter what. On the other hand, if you installed the A/C after market, your car came with the air vents operational and you could use them instead of the A/C when it was cool enough for you to do so.

Now about 1970s, the car makers decided to design the car around A/C not internal air flow cooling. This permitted the cars to become smaller as the air channels and vents were eliminated. The Interior space in the cars did NOT go down, but the size from bumper to bumper did. This reduced weight for less steel was needed, but came at the expense of no longer having the Air Vents of the 1960s (and those air vents were MASSIVE, on a Chevrolet Bel Air, they were about 12 x 18 inches on both the passenger and driver sides of the car. They were in side panel of the car under the dash board. The Air flow through the vent over you feet and into the rest of the car. It was these air vents that disappeared with the down sizing of American Cars in the 1970s).

The result of this redesign was from about 1970s US cars were designed for A/C, and you were better off getting it from the Factory. Thus the good advice of the 1960s "install A/C after market" was no longer good advice by the early 1970s. Things change, and old advice may no longer be good (Another example of this was the advice to sell your car down south, for it would bring more money in the south, good advice in the 1940s and 1950s, but by the 1960s reversing, the better market became the North).

Now, used car sales can vary, but some characteristics can be stable. First is that poor countries, but still advance countries, tend to buy used cars for they are cheaper then new. Thus Southern Europe and the Far East, both booming since WWII are hot used car markets, but Africa is less of one (and Latin American prefer large Cars for the same reason the US liked large cars, large cars handle bad roads better then small cars). These trends continue.

On the other hand, the huge demand of China for scrap has been the driving force behind anything with metal since at least 2000. Thus a lot of the tight market for used cars is that China is paying top dollar for Scrap.

I have to admit I am less familiar with the 3-6 year old used car market, for those cars have value and they still cost to much for my clients. On the other hand, you have to realize that car production dropped liked a rock in 2008 do to the recession and that is FIVE years ago. Thus the biggest factor may be nothing I mentioned, but the fact that they are FEW USED CARS, for no one was buying new cars five years ago. Lets remember how bad the drop is sales was in 2008, it was so bad that Ford had to close down its factor making 3/4 and 1 ton trucks (not slow production down, but close it down completely). Other car makers did the same, or went to one shift of production instead of three shifts.

Thus what I said above may be factors, but all minor compared to the fact they are just less used cars in the market for people did NOT buy cars five years ago (i.e. they are NOT selling they present car for a new used car, for their present car was either purchased within the last two years, and thus NOT yet of the age to sell, OR they still have the car they would have sold in 2008). Thus my comments in my previous thread may be accurate for 10 to 20 year old cars, but the big factor when it comes to a shortage of 3-6 year old cars is that just were not that many cars sold 3-6 years ago. You can not buy something USED, if no one bought it NEW.

Thanks again. You're too modest about your knowledge.

with extremely good interest rates. With a credit score on the low end of fair, I managed to get a 3.9% rate on a 2009 Elantra with 87K miles on 5 years.

I haven't been in the "new car" buying demographic since, and even if I was, I'd probably still be driving an $800 used car with a salvage title.

My cars and my computers were other people's trash.

I'd like to live long enough to see the end of the automobile age; to live in a world where most people use leg-power and public transportation to get to work and ripping up discarded highways and restoring the land is a major industry.